Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

However, HWs really bring people to actually using Bitcoin.
I mean, I have met countless guys who hold five figures in "crypto" on exchanges and haven't even sent one transaction in their life.

Probably because they are terrified of screwing up, of fat-fingering and sending to a wrong address, or somehow losing all their coins completely. And what veteran even doesn't sweat a little bit, waiting for those first confirmations to start showing up? Especially with a large transaction.

And I can completely relate, as that is how I felt in the beginning too. It really is a shame that the "ease of use" factor of bitcoin has not been improved really at all in 7-8 years. By now it should be as easy, secure, and painless/fearless as using your online bank account.

It's still a HUGE impediment to global mass adoption.

[JayJuanGee]

Good use of the term crypto in this context.

1 Question for the Advanced minds:

If FIAT Currency crashes to 0 do you think Bitcoin is going to survive such an event?





Yonko we are Coming !

Fiat crashing to zero seems quite an outlier scenario (especially if you were to believe that to be in the cards in any kind of near-term future and before a lot more desperate acts from the current status quo financial incumbents), and anyone framing the matter in such extremes seems likely to be missing a whole hell of a lot of way the hell more likely scenarios in which bitcoin is both already winning (and seemingly pretty clearly so) and likely to continue to win with quite a bit of resoluteness and material meaning.. even if we might not know details regarding how smoothly the whole transition from fiat to bitcoin plays out in terms of the transition between different systems (largely two in the case of transitioning from fiat to bitcoin).. and yeah of course, there could be a lot of violence too, and for sure there are going to be casualties, too.. , so there could be some need to prepare for various kinds of acts of desperation from various no coiners or those who try to get on the bitcoin train way too late..

Actually, now we are still really quite early in spite of so many attempts to frame the matter to the contrary.. so it is likely a time to be actually taking preparatory actions in terms of accumulating BTC and/or maintaining your BTC stash in a kind of safe status that you are able to retain decent quantities of it during our ongoing transition from fiat to BTC (which could also take 50 years to play out, even if there might be periods of rapid changes in the midst that could come in the coming years, too) rather than sitting back and watching, complaining and/or considering that bitcoin might just fall into your possession without your having to have had taken any significant/meaningful personal actions to facilitate such acquisition and maintenance of a bitcoin stash, beyond mere begging.

[Gachapin]

Personally if I'm going to liquidate a large amount of btc, it gets moved to an exchange and sold within minutes of hitting it. I just can't trust leaving any amount there for any longer than what is required to do the sale transaction.

THIS!!

Sadly, many had to learn it the hard way, me included.

I never stored too much on exchanges, but I still lost coins on GOX and (temporary) on Stamp.

Stamp refunded everything, without issuing stupid tokens or so. That's why Stamp gained some of my trust, and that in times when you couldn't trust any exchange even a bit.
I still use Stamp

[cygan]

[tertius993]

However, HWs really bring people to actually using Bitcoin.
I mean, I have met countless guys who hold five figures in "crypto" on exchanges and haven't even sent one transaction in their life.

Probably because they are terrified of screwing up, of fat-fingering and sending to a wrong address, or somehow losing all their coins completely. And what veteran even doesn't sweat a little bit, waiting for those first confirmations to start showing up? Especially with a large transaction.

And I can completely relate, as that is how I felt in the beginning too. It really is a shame that the "ease of use" factor of bitcoin has not been improved really at all in 7-8 years. By now it should be as easy, secure, and painless/fearless as using your online bank account.

It's still a HUGE impediment to global mass adoption.

Completely agree - the learning curve is too steep and the potential for a serious c*ck up too large for the average Joe or Jane.

While we are on it the other thing that annoys me is all the dust that is scattered all over the place.  Mining pools, exchanges, wallets and who knows where else with individually tiny amounts that were too small to move and are doubtless lost for ever. These will become significant.

[JayJuanGee]

Not today ChartBuddy, not today.



Pump it to $50,000 damn!

Does not seem to want to go.


















Until it does.











 

Here we have it, another "expert".

Why bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme.

https://www.ft.com/content/83a14261-598d-4601-87fc-5dde528b33d0

"Pay us £33 per month to read these terrible opinions."

No thanks.

For sure, the title itself seems to be caught back in years gone by.. before a lot of those arguments had already been clearly rebutted..... .. sometimes there is a convoluting of the ideas of crypto and bitcoin to help to give some credible evidence to the arguments, but still we should be calling out such ongoing convolution of concepts/terms - even though the convolution does not seem to be getting any better.. but there are likely going to continue exist a variety of ways to distract people into various get rich quick possibilities, and surely they are not completely unbacked..... .. but yeah, why not attribute various negative happenings to bitcoin.. what else is new in terms of ongoing tricks to contribute to normies failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin or to attempt to cause them to sell too much too soon. 

For sure, those of us who have been studying bitcoin for a while can appreciate some of these disinformation patterns and NOT get tricked out of our coins.. or tricked into stacking insufficient quantities of coins.

[shahzadafzal]

“7.9 Billion people in the world

21 Million #Bitcoin 

0.00265822 BTC each - do you have yours?”

I’m surre he’s hungry for more….!!!


https://twitter.com/coincornerdanny/status/1473630348718321673?s=21

[LoyceV]

https://twitter.com/coincornerdanny/status/1473630348718321673?s=21

We have standards here: he should sign a message!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Haha...I think my needle is now stuck on "screw 'em".

I mean, after over a decade, if they don't realize it by now, well....they can't be helped.

[Gachapin]

However, HWs really bring people to actually using Bitcoin.
I mean, I have met countless guys who hold five figures in "crypto" on exchanges and haven't even sent one transaction in their life.

Probably because they are terrified of screwing up, of fat-fingering and sending to a wrong address, or somehow losing all their coins completely. And what veteran even doesn't sweat a little bit, waiting for those first confirmations to start showing up? Especially with a large transaction.

And I can completely relate, as that is how I felt in the beginning too. It really is a shame that the "ease of use" factor of bitcoin has not been improved really at all in 7-8 years. By now it should be as easy, secure, and painless/fearless as using your online bank account.

It's still a HUGE impediment to global mass adoption.

Most new buyers I met really don't care much about Bitcoin, apart from tHe gAinZ.

They don't get how revolutionary BTC is (we all know that takes some time). So no interest of using it from their side.
They are happy leaving it all to the exchange.

And of course, I see them burn themselves with shit^TM every single time..

Regarding transactions
I'm more terrified doing fuck ups these days compared to times when BTC was super cheap.
I like your sweating picture.  Very accurate...

Regarding ease of use
I had that thought again a few days ago, when I sent some transactions.
"Why do I have to check these awful random strings of numbers and letters... why couldn't addresses be displayed like seed words or so"
My hope is that HW makers come up with a solution for that.

But Bitcoin development itself has stalled quite a bit in this area.
Of course, Bitcoin is not the place to try out every new idea, just to see how it goes. But I agree... more could have been done.

I guess many Devs rather work for shitcoin projects and get rich... market forces.
Probably there should be some kind of reward program paying BTC devs, when some of their ideas get implemented.
I wouldn't know how that should work, or specifically look like, but building something like that should be a community effort.

[jojo69]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

[Biodom]

I am not quite sure how they ported the phone.

I suspect they used tracfone had the cell number  hoped by getting the email

that the email linked to tracfone and to coinbase was the same

so if they hack just the email

they could try to port the cell to their carrier.

then get into coinbase change password and use 2fa to allow withdraws and alter the email

...
Best to buy a burner phone set up google to microsoft auth.

the coinbase account does not know that phone number so no one can port it over to another network.

Sorry that it happened, but I cannot figure it out from your description.
coinbase did have some SMS troubles last May or so, maybe it is somehow related.

The ported phone would jeopardize both methods (text or Authenticator), wouldn't it?
what's the "email linked to tracfone"? why there is such a thing?

...I do have an email/phone account so they could have ported the phone from trac phone to Verizon mobile by entering my cell number

They could have hacked the email using recovery to the phone.

Is this coinbase system so bizzaredly inadequate?
the pnone can be ported JUST by knowing a cell number?
the email can be reset just by providing a cell number?
This sounds outlandish.
EDIT: nevermind, it happens that email recovery was linked to the phone number, that seems to the gist of the problem (together with porting), but using auth for withdrawal saved the day, thankfully.

[philipma1957]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

microsoft auth can be on any phone

not the same as sms text 2fa

The cell you use for the microsoft app  basically makes the code like a yubi.

but all sms text  2fa = bs


right now the ported phone has other accounts that I am Locked out of til I recover the phone via reporting back to be.

then signing onto the other accounts  changing out to some other Security .

I can't do Id me as my driver photo is old (fucking covid I can't go to DMV for new photo) and is not a good match for a selfie.

So the other accounts (no $$$ or coin involved) allow 2fa via sms text or id.me

Since the phone number is ported I can't get in to do another phone
and id me is like fuck you.

You know what really pisses me off is I am the only person on the planet with my name as it is rare.  Yet 2fa is keeping the only person in the world with the proper name and address out of accounts.

as I said these do not involve $$$ but I want to alter the corrupted phone number and would lock myself out of the accounts for weeks if I report this or wait and hope o get my phone back long enough to fix those accounts.  and not a single account  was ever on the phones just on a fully secured pc

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The problem I have with PlanB is he has a habit of moving the goalposts ...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407634975051157506

"I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year ..."

I agree.

Now he's saying that as long as the price trudges along the "lower bound" aka $40-50K, it's still valid. But look at his chart, it could literally still do that and go sideways until mid-2024.

Which is what I've been saying all along. His $100K by Christmas 2021 scenario was never a certainty. But he did say that it was or else S2F invalid.

An EOY parabolic run was expected by the majority, so the market was inclined to go another direction.

Isn't this the trap that the n00bs fall into literally every bull run tho?

Bitcoin no does not do sideways.

So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.

The last that I heard is that PlanB was expecting an average of $100k for this halvening period, and we are slightly less than half way through the period.. so surely it is interesting to see if such an average could be achieved.. and for sure if our price has already been quite lower than half of the median expected amount, then it would have a lot of price to make up for the second half of the period.. and still I would NOT be suggesting that those $100k median prices are impossible... even if they might seem like a stretch currently and even if maybe we were to end up getting a median price that ends up way lower than $100k.. even a median of something like $80k would probably not feel like a failure to a lot of us.. especially since anything close to reality based models are already known to be be guidelines rather than guaranteed.

And, by the way, fuck the noobs or anyone who would be so gullible to consider something like PlanB's model to be anything close to guaranteed, and fuck the attempts to ascribe that level of gullibility to a lot of us folks who believe that PlanB's model still remains amongst the best of the BTC price prediction models currently in existence.. even if there are likely anecdotal examples of some folks who ascribe way too high of levels of certainty to such models.. or thinking that such models need to meet the exact levels of averages that PlanB ascribed in order to NOT be failures...   

Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps?  perhaps?  I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..   Surely, we do not seem to be in any kind of bad place in spit of so much of the doom and gloom and seemingly wishful thinkings about the supposed death of a model.. how many times does oh gawd have to be said on this topic?..... even though it still remains interesting to see where we have been, where we are at and where we might well be going into the coming quarters.. and surely stretching to the rest of this halvening period.

Edit:  I see that Gachapin makes some similar points as me, but still his framings are a bit different on some of the points, so I will just leave my above response "as originally drafted."

[jojo69]

[Torque]

The problem I have with PlanB is he has a habit of moving the goalposts ...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407634975051157506

"I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year ..."

I agree.

Now he's saying that as long as the price trudges along the "lower bound" aka $40-50K, it's still valid. But look at his chart, it could literally still do that and go sideways until mid-2024.

Which is what I've been saying all along. His $100K by Christmas 2021 scenario was never a certainty. But he did say that it was or else S2F invalid.

An EOY parabolic run was expected by the majority, so the market was inclined to go another direction.

Isn't this the trap that the n00bs fall into literally every bull run tho?

Bitcoin no does not do sideways.

So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.

You misunderstood, J.

I did not say it would go sideways until mid-2024. I said that PlanB is saying that if the price were to stay in the lower bounds of his S2F model, that it would still be valid. And that if you look at the lower bounds of the $40-55k range on his chart, it extends out until mid-2024.

So ask yourself, what is HE saying then? But I guess we're the looney/out of touch ones, not him?

Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps?  perhaps?  I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..  

PlanB is who made the initial claims, and is now moving the goalposts. Why should you conform to his redefinition of success or failure of the S2F model along with him?

Now, do I personally think it'll stay in this price range all the way to mid 2024? Well of course not. I don't even think it'll stay here all the way through next year.

[Torque]

I want an NFT to a native American cave wall painting. Or to Neil Armstrong's boot print on the moon.

[d_eddie]

Careful what you wish for, lest you get the boot.