Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LoyceV]

https://twitter.com/coincornerdanny/status/1473630348718321673?s=21

We have standards here: he should sign a message!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Haha...I think my needle is now stuck on "screw 'em".

I mean, after over a decade, if they don't realize it by now, well....they can't be helped.

[Gachapin]

However, HWs really bring people to actually using Bitcoin.
I mean, I have met countless guys who hold five figures in "crypto" on exchanges and haven't even sent one transaction in their life.

Probably because they are terrified of screwing up, of fat-fingering and sending to a wrong address, or somehow losing all their coins completely. And what veteran even doesn't sweat a little bit, waiting for those first confirmations to start showing up? Especially with a large transaction.

And I can completely relate, as that is how I felt in the beginning too. It really is a shame that the "ease of use" factor of bitcoin has not been improved really at all in 7-8 years. By now it should be as easy, secure, and painless/fearless as using your online bank account.

It's still a HUGE impediment to global mass adoption.

Most new buyers I met really don't care much about Bitcoin, apart from tHe gAinZ.

They don't get how revolutionary BTC is (we all know that takes some time). So no interest of using it from their side.
They are happy leaving it all to the exchange.

And of course, I see them burn themselves with shit^TM every single time..

Regarding transactions
I'm more terrified doing fuck ups these days compared to times when BTC was super cheap.
I like your sweating picture.  Very accurate...

Regarding ease of use
I had that thought again a few days ago, when I sent some transactions.
"Why do I have to check these awful random strings of numbers and letters... why couldn't addresses be displayed like seed words or so"
My hope is that HW makers come up with a solution for that.

But Bitcoin development itself has stalled quite a bit in this area.
Of course, Bitcoin is not the place to try out every new idea, just to see how it goes. But I agree... more could have been done.

I guess many Devs rather work for shitcoin projects and get rich... market forces.
Probably there should be some kind of reward program paying BTC devs, when some of their ideas get implemented.
I wouldn't know how that should work, or specifically look like, but building something like that should be a community effort.

[jojo69]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

[Biodom]

I am not quite sure how they ported the phone.

I suspect they used tracfone had the cell number  hoped by getting the email

that the email linked to tracfone and to coinbase was the same

so if they hack just the email

they could try to port the cell to their carrier.

then get into coinbase change password and use 2fa to allow withdraws and alter the email

...
Best to buy a burner phone set up google to microsoft auth.

the coinbase account does not know that phone number so no one can port it over to another network.

Sorry that it happened, but I cannot figure it out from your description.
coinbase did have some SMS troubles last May or so, maybe it is somehow related.

The ported phone would jeopardize both methods (text or Authenticator), wouldn't it?
what's the "email linked to tracfone"? why there is such a thing?

...I do have an email/phone account so they could have ported the phone from trac phone to Verizon mobile by entering my cell number

They could have hacked the email using recovery to the phone.

Is this coinbase system so bizzaredly inadequate?
the pnone can be ported JUST by knowing a cell number?
the email can be reset just by providing a cell number?
This sounds outlandish.
EDIT: nevermind, it happens that email recovery was linked to the phone number, that seems to the gist of the problem (together with porting), but using auth for withdrawal saved the day, thankfully.

[philipma1957]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

microsoft auth can be on any phone

not the same as sms text 2fa

The cell you use for the microsoft app  basically makes the code like a yubi.

but all sms text  2fa = bs


right now the ported phone has other accounts that I am Locked out of til I recover the phone via reporting back to be.

then signing onto the other accounts  changing out to some other Security .

I can't do Id me as my driver photo is old (fucking covid I can't go to DMV for new photo) and is not a good match for a selfie.

So the other accounts (no $$$ or coin involved) allow 2fa via sms text or id.me

Since the phone number is ported I can't get in to do another phone
and id me is like fuck you.

You know what really pisses me off is I am the only person on the planet with my name as it is rare.  Yet 2fa is keeping the only person in the world with the proper name and address out of accounts.

as I said these do not involve $$$ but I want to alter the corrupted phone number and would lock myself out of the accounts for weeks if I report this or wait and hope o get my phone back long enough to fix those accounts.  and not a single account  was ever on the phones just on a fully secured pc

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The problem I have with PlanB is he has a habit of moving the goalposts ...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407634975051157506

"I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year ..."

I agree.

Now he's saying that as long as the price trudges along the "lower bound" aka $40-50K, it's still valid. But look at his chart, it could literally still do that and go sideways until mid-2024.

Which is what I've been saying all along. His $100K by Christmas 2021 scenario was never a certainty. But he did say that it was or else S2F invalid.

An EOY parabolic run was expected by the majority, so the market was inclined to go another direction.

Isn't this the trap that the n00bs fall into literally every bull run tho?

Bitcoin no does not do sideways.

So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.

The last that I heard is that PlanB was expecting an average of $100k for this halvening period, and we are slightly less than half way through the period.. so surely it is interesting to see if such an average could be achieved.. and for sure if our price has already been quite lower than half of the median expected amount, then it would have a lot of price to make up for the second half of the period.. and still I would NOT be suggesting that those $100k median prices are impossible... even if they might seem like a stretch currently and even if maybe we were to end up getting a median price that ends up way lower than $100k.. even a median of something like $80k would probably not feel like a failure to a lot of us.. especially since anything close to reality based models are already known to be be guidelines rather than guaranteed.

And, by the way, fuck the noobs or anyone who would be so gullible to consider something like PlanB's model to be anything close to guaranteed, and fuck the attempts to ascribe that level of gullibility to a lot of us folks who believe that PlanB's model still remains amongst the best of the BTC price prediction models currently in existence.. even if there are likely anecdotal examples of some folks who ascribe way too high of levels of certainty to such models.. or thinking that such models need to meet the exact levels of averages that PlanB ascribed in order to NOT be failures...   

Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps?  perhaps?  I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..   Surely, we do not seem to be in any kind of bad place in spit of so much of the doom and gloom and seemingly wishful thinkings about the supposed death of a model.. how many times does oh gawd have to be said on this topic?..... even though it still remains interesting to see where we have been, where we are at and where we might well be going into the coming quarters.. and surely stretching to the rest of this halvening period.

Edit:  I see that Gachapin makes some similar points as me, but still his framings are a bit different on some of the points, so I will just leave my above response "as originally drafted."

[jojo69]

[Torque]

The problem I have with PlanB is he has a habit of moving the goalposts ...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407634975051157506

"I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year ..."

I agree.

Now he's saying that as long as the price trudges along the "lower bound" aka $40-50K, it's still valid. But look at his chart, it could literally still do that and go sideways until mid-2024.

Which is what I've been saying all along. His $100K by Christmas 2021 scenario was never a certainty. But he did say that it was or else S2F invalid.

An EOY parabolic run was expected by the majority, so the market was inclined to go another direction.

Isn't this the trap that the n00bs fall into literally every bull run tho?

Bitcoin no does not do sideways.

So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.

You misunderstood, J.

I did not say it would go sideways until mid-2024. I said that PlanB is saying that if the price were to stay in the lower bounds of his S2F model, that it would still be valid. And that if you look at the lower bounds of the $40-55k range on his chart, it extends out until mid-2024.

So ask yourself, what is HE saying then? But I guess we're the looney/out of touch ones, not him?

Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps?  perhaps?  I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..  

PlanB is who made the initial claims, and is now moving the goalposts. Why should you conform to his redefinition of success or failure of the S2F model along with him?

Now, do I personally think it'll stay in this price range all the way to mid 2024? Well of course not. I don't even think it'll stay here all the way through next year.

[Torque]

I want an NFT to a native American cave wall painting. Or to Neil Armstrong's boot print on the moon.

[d_eddie]

Careful what you wish for, lest you get the boot.

[dragonvslinux]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

microsoft auth can be on any phone

not the same as sms text 2fa

The cell you use for the microsoft app  basically makes the code like a yubi.

It's still 2FA; two-factor authentication. TOTP based specifically, not SMS based.

The Microsoft Authenticator app also supports the industry standard for time-based, one-time passcodes (also known as TOTP or OTP).

This is where the confusion lies. 2FA saved your btc, don't hate on it  

Sounds like TOTP

[Torque]

Regarding ease of use
I had that thought again a few days ago, when I sent some transactions.
"Why do I have to check these awful random strings of numbers and letters... why couldn't addresses be displayed like seed words or so"
My hope is that HW makers come up with a solution for that.

But Bitcoin development itself has stalled quite a bit in this area.
Of course, Bitcoin is not the place to try out every new idea, just to see how it goes. But I agree... more could have been done.

I guess many Devs rather work for shitcoin projects and get rich... market forces.
Probably there should be some kind of reward program paying BTC devs, when some of their ideas get implemented.
I wouldn't know how that should work, or specifically look like, but building something like that should be a community effort.

Yeah I agree. There have been attempts in the past to try to make addresses easier to use, but they all had attack vectors and compromises.

Alas, I don't really see a good solution until banks start to allow btc to be stored in online accounts, with multi-level security protocols in place to make sure btc can't leave without adequate validation of the true account holder. Banks would also have to integrate something like Lightning rails in order to make transactions fast.

But of course even if they did this, it violates the whole "hold your own keys, be your own bank" original purpose of Bitcoin. Not like the masses would even care, though.

[Tash]

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

...

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

Yes old school is the way to go. Makes zero sense rip up a note and give part of it someone else to look after. Defeats whole purpose of Bitcoin.
After some battle with a Chinese exchage years ago the issue was done with. Gold coins/bar do just fine without.
Dont have more as spendig money in my purse why would be more on a phone wallet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

The most important advantage in them is hard to see at first:  Secure XPRV (seed, XPUB etc) generation.  Hardware wallets are the ONLY foolproof way to make a bitcoin seed.  So far there is no other way that is safe, that also is not prohibitively difficult/risky.

I get your point and agree. But what if the hardware wallet has a whole bunch of predefined seeds, and one day are all swiped empty? What if the seed generation turns out to be not truly random?

(using an extended passphrase on top of the seed mostly solves this, and/or multisig)


Printing the BIP-39 words and draw them from a hat can't be messed with and is rather fool proof.

[JayJuanGee]

most of my coins are in hardware wallets.

I just happened to have the large sum on coinbase prepping to spend on mine expansion.

Since there are four of us and we are buying a large amount of gear I had four shares of coins prepped to convert to fiat to buy the order.

tracfone confirmed the phone was ported to verizon. it was a locked tracfone which should not have ported over  yet it did.

I did notice three attempted logins to my email over the last few months.

I am glad I required all coin withdrawals to use the auth. app .

and that it was on a different unknown to anyone phone number.

as jjg said other moves are doable on an account secured the way I did but my coinbase does not have coinbase pro.

I fucking hate all 2fa bs as it weakens my security.

I intentionally only use a pc. zero phone access to
pay anything.

I am strictly old school. but these fuckers force shit on you.

synched accounts etc.

If i was setup that way I could have lost a lot.

Sometimes there can be some aspects of luck in terms of whether something that you did or failed to do had allowed for enough breaches in order for the hacker(s) to find access to some of your coins.

For my early 2017 hackening, I recall that I had some coins on a blockchain.com wallet, and if you recall in 2013-ish blockchain.com would send you an e-mail recovery for your account and I believe that they recommended to remove that recovery to off-line, and for some reason I had created two different blockchain.com wallets, and I had been pretty sure that my funds had been removed from the wallets - and I was also a bit nervous about even attempting to access the account until I had access to my phone number back because I did not want to cause a situation in which I ended up either locking myself out of the wallets or that I ended up giving up a kind of secret in case the hackers were able to get into one of my accounts again.

So on a bit of a side note, I am pretty sure that my phone number had gotten jeopardized, and then I got it locked a few times, and then the hackers were able to get it unlocked again a few times, and so when I went to regain access to my phone number, my phone company had wanted to verify that I took a variety of safety measures first.. which I did and then I got my phone number back..

So getting back to my blockchain.com (.info) account, I was able to access my account, and I had gotten lucky that I had moved my backup seed into my archives, so the ONLY wallet that the hackers could have gotten would have been the second account/wallet that I had created, which did not have any balance of coins therein.  I felt that I got lucky on that one because even blochain.com (info) had a weak way of sending your backup over e-mail.. which could have been jeopardized and maybe even the creator might not have realized where the weakness had been.  Needless to say, after I had gotten back access to that blockchain.com wallet with all the coins therein, I figured out some better storage means for those coins.. and surely I had ended up learning quite a bit that I should have already known prior to the hack but for some reason I was not inspired to learn (maybe even scared to make certain changes or moves or to attempt to practice with back-up methods) until after i had been hacked and several of the vulnerabilities had become more clearly recognizable and some of the vulnerable areas were not even complicated fixes that likely increased security x100 based on some fairly basic changes.

Haha...I think my needle is now stuck on "screw 'em".

I mean, after over a decade, if they don't realize it by now, well....they can't be helped.

I do say screw em quite a lot, but I still believe that I am kind of a softie if someone is actually seriously inquiring into BTC, and maybe not even that seriously inquiring into BTC.  Frequently, I will try to help for a little while to get them to understand both the value proposition of BTC and the prudence of taking some significant and meaningful steps, even if it is just small steps to have a very small allocation of their networth (which is implicitly talking about their investment portfolio) into BTC. 

So surely if I am talking about bitcoin with almost anyone - once we get into such a topic - I will give them a few chances to say dumb shit, before I really give up... and just tell them that "they can do whatever the fuck they like.. I tried to help them to help themselves.."...and sometimes (maybe frequently it is the case) they seem resistant to recognize and appreciate the BTC value proposition.. including that my own personal financial/psychological situation is likely to continue to improve whether or NOT they take any actions to invest in bitcoin and/or to have likely odds of improving their lot because of such actions to invest in bitcoin.

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1473739902475018243