Just came back home from work (VERY busy lately...), and I see a nice, near-parabolic upward movement.
$44k reached -- hopefully moar soon.
Go, Bitcoin, go!
44k looks nice but it fell back to 43.7
Yeah, it's dropping now... Almost feel like I jinxed it.
Say whatever you like.. I doubt dee corns gives any more than a token of a shit, if that?.. including the voo-doo karma angle.
I believe the bull run is NOT over yet. There was no real bull run IMHO. There was a rise, sure, and we've had the Elons and the ETFs and all, but I feel there's plenty of steam left in that choo-choo to let out.
Surely, many of us HODLers got a lot of pleasures out of our 6.5x run between September and April and even the complementary return to $69k in October/November - for however brief that is now seeming.
So yeah, we sunk back into the doldrums of only 2.8x and then recently 3.9x.. and hovering around 4.3x to 4.4x.. but still, can't really feel too bad about any of that.. and even seems to exceed the various real inflation that we have been experiencing during that same time when (or if) we go out to price hookers, lambos and blow (or similar good or services within our current of future consumptions).
If we are attempting to live with actual facts, it still seems difficult to spin our current situation in a negative way - unless we are really out of touch with several realistic scenarios that could have made our situation even worse.
For sure, we would not even have had to have been stacking sats since 2015 or so in order to really appreciate a lot of advantages that we have had in the last 17 months or so, so long as we had mostly been stocked up on BTC prior to September 2020.... I will concede that there has been a decent amount of advantage that had been delivered to those peeps who had mostly been stocked up on BTC prior to September 2020.
And, for sure, we cannot completely control either when it was that we heard about bitcoin and/or were in a position to look into the bitcoin matter and to feel comfortable to start stocking up or to aggressively stock up... so surely some advantage to those who had already stocked up prior to September 2020.. yet even if those persons still in the process of getting started stocking up after September 2020 were not advantaged as much, they still should be able to reap similar kinds of benefits as the pre-September 2020 stocked up club so long as they stay persistent with their focusing upon making sure that they are stacking/stocking up reasonably and sufficiently within their means.
Of course, many of us who have studied this bitcoinlandia price dynamics space cannot quite feel that this whole situation of topping off seems very plausible, even if many scenarios remain possible, the tops already in scenario seems like it remains amongst the minority of scenarios.. like we have already been in a similar place (maybe not exactly this same place, but something similar) and we realize that the fat lady may possibly not have sung, yet.
At the same time, we are in a place that we can accept whatever happens to be our fate while knowing and appreciating that bitcoin remains a quite decently strong asymmetric bet for any of those (us) who are able to recognize and appreciate the actual existence (in this world) of such a thing.
Not worried, not disappointed, just patiently waiting for that "fuck you" level, to be officially free from monetary slavery. That level is different for each one of us, for me it's around the $100k stable mark. Stable means that it has at least reached twice that amount, has had a couple of healthy corrections and is hovering at a level deep into the $100k-$200k region.
That seems like a decently fair way of assessing the matter in a way that you are not getting too hyped up about the top, but trying to figure out a kind of king daddy price gravitating point.. It would be dangerous for any of us to be pulling the fuck you lever prior to really being in a position that we can really have had handled the ramifications of such. Some guys will not admit when they had pulled the fuck you lever too soon, but sometimes we can see these kinds of examples in real life. At the same time, some times we have to be sure that we are not allowing the perfect be the enemy of the good. Sometimes guys will set their expectations regarding "how much I need" to be way higher than what is actually necessary. The other day, I heard
Preston Pysh talk about this example in his going over Tony Robbins in his podcast, and he talks about Tony Robbins talking about the guy who says that he needs $1 billion dollars.. which when getting into the details, is just ridiculous that the guy is setting unachievable goals for himself, and probably some of those guys could easily be in a great position with a fraction of their stated goal, especially if they contemplate the reality of what they actually are trying to achieve by getting to such status.
It could come this year, or it may not. Either way, is fine by me. I've been in this scene since 2015 -- what's another 2-3 more years?
I understand that you are not so hot about Stock to Flow, but surely I consider the Stock to Flow model to be far from dead.
And, with the Stock to Flow model there is an anticipation of the average BTC price to be $100k for this 4-year halvening period, and we are only less than two years into the halvening period (which is the time past since the halvening in May 2020), and so even if maybe we ONLY end up achieving some lower average for the whole period, there still seem to be decent odds that the average for the period is going to move up.. maybe the average for this period is ONLY $40k-ish? The 104-week moving average is about $31k, which would be the average for the past 2 years.
So, sure we should be preparing financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios, and sure for me it seems decently plausible that we could reach something close to $100k stability in the next 2-3 years, but even if we merely keep gravitating UPpity with the both the 104-week moving average and the 208-week moving average.. they do seem to be heading in that direction
(with the 208-week moving average currently at about $19k and the 104-week moving average currently at $31k), even if it may well end up taking longer than 2-3 years to get there.. even something as long (bad) as 4-6 years, which surely seems to be a bearish-as-fuck scenario, but still in reality would not even be that bad for any of us who have already stocked up on BTC prior to September 2020.. and not even so bad for those folks who started stacking sats after September 2020 and even just starting to stack in recent times... of course, the later the time that anyone started stacking sats, they may well be in a better position to think about the whole stacking of sats matter in a more aggressive (or assertive) way based on the totality of circumstances including that the word about bitcoin seems to increasingly be getting out there and into the financial status quo incumbent folks which likely means that some of those financially status quo incumbent folks are going to try to hoard sats...and push up the BTC price for everyone else.
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