Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Inflation is definitely a feature (as was pointed out above).

On top of the inflation feature and the erasure of the middle class in the UK we have this disgusting move by the disgusting UK government btw:
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/one-million-pulled-higher-rate-210315809.html

BuT wE hAvE tO pAy FoR cOvId ReLiEf.

-Fuck off.

 

See I wouldn't mind paying tax if half the money didn't go straight to the extreme wealthy so that the politicians could have sweet million dollar jobs after the leave office on the boards of their comapines. Or if half of the tax left over from that wasn't then wasted on stupid shit the government should have nothing to do with.

Get rid of that and I would proudly pay tax, but that is never going to happen it seems.

[1715116419]

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[1715116419]

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[El duderino_]

Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.

[somac.]

Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.

100% agree and this is being shown with on-chain data.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Raoul Pal's horseshit ETH to $40K and "most Solana is staked" nonsense are hopefully put to bed with these drops.

BTC is the indicator, nothing else!

Scamshite Hex with that Richard Heart scammer who s(h)its on a middle ages throne creeping into the top 10 seems to have gone unnoticed also.
Look at Litecoin. #26 now. And that imbecile Musk still floating his Doge crap. #13.
What a pile of shite, all of it.

Hope people remain level headed in WO.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tash]

Raoul Pal's horseshit ETH to $40K and "most Solana is staked" nonsense are hopefully put to bed with these drops.

BTC is the indicator, nothing else!

Scamshite Hex with that Richard Heart scammer who s(h)its on a middle ages throne creeping into the top 10 seems to have gone unnoticed also.
Look at Litecoin. #26 now. And that imbecile Musk still floating his Doge crap. #13.
What a pile of shite, all of it.

Hope people remain level headed in WO.

Just wow, at that Hex junk was totally unaware how that has creeped up.

[vapourminer]

There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.

honey-badger: hold my beer.. idgaf lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.

honey-badger: hold my beer.. idgaf lol

Please no.

Just when you think the dumping is over for the day, here we go again.

[BobLawblaw]

Sheeeit.

[somac.]

Sheeeit.

Yeah

My guess is we are getting a dump down into the 30s this weekend. Hopefully the last though.

Gonna head off for 12 hours and not check the price. I hope that when I check the price again we have bounced from here. Got to be oversold right now.

[serveria.com]

Sheeeit.

Yeah

My guess is we are getting a dump down into the 30s this weekend. Hopefully the last though.

Gonna head off for 12 hours and not check the price. I hope that when I check the price again we have bounced from here. Got to be oversold right now.

With a profile signature like that I woudn't worry much... 

[suchmoon]

I sense a bit of unappreciative tone here regarding discounted bitcoins. It's as if we haven't seen the other side of 40k many times before. It's fine. Breathe. How many lambos does one need anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

1K drop out of nowhere.

Had a private health check earlier (so outside of our useless NHS system which is laughable these days with wait times). Something I'd advise every one to do now and then.
What a girl who was doing that.

[greensheep]

1K drop out of nowhere.

stairs up, elevator down

[dragonvslinux]

Remember all those wyckoff accumulation charts we saw in last year's mid year dip. It proved to be correct, I haven't seen any such analysis getting around now but things look similar. Has anybody seen any of that analysis done on this dip?

I seem to remember someone posting about it some days ago, basically saying that it looks good.

I was posting about it before when it looked like wyckoff accumulation on the 4hr chart, though unconfirmed, but this structure has now been broken with the recent drop:

Posting this again for some New Year Hopium. Recent bounce from $46K still looking like a "spring" for Wyckoff accumulation, even more so after creating new closing low on 4hr:

Based on the current price structure, it doesn't look like wyckoff to me, at least not on a line chart. On a candle chart, we'd be in Phase B at best, prior to creating a lower low:



As for current outlook, I'm personally not seeing $40K-$46K range as providing much support given the volume gap, even if a dead cat bounce could occur from here at any moment:



The $42.5K level is merely a "last line in the sand" before lower lows, similarly to how $46K acted as such after failing to find support and getting rejected by $48K MA support. The 0.236 fib retracement around $38K where volume lies and previous VPVR point of control around $33K-35K is more likely where a macro higher low would form imo, while taking more weeks to get there. Daily RSI is bearish, but not even oversold yet (like back in May) for reference sake, the Weekly RSI hasn't even turned bearish yet, as food for thought. There's plenty for room to the downside if price strength continues to weaken basically.

Ultimately price closed below the 50 Week MA again and the bears followed through, breaking both support trend-lines, as well as MA support. Doesn't look great to me anymore to put it simply. At least the on-chain data still looks good, but price structure looks pretty f**ked now. Truth is, Bitcoin has never been continually traded below the 50 Week MA within a bull market, so best to hope for in the mid-term would be further consolidation at higher levels. Still not seeing any argument for $20K-$25K levels, even if entirely possible now (70% drop from high to low), but otherwise not seeing any buyers at current prices either.

Ideally price drops hard and we get the crash over and done with as quickly as possible, somewhat regardless of how low it goes, rather than f**king around in no mans land. Just my opinion anyway.

I sent you a merit anyhow, even though I believe that you are overly pessimistic regarding the power of king daddy and the various fake outs.. ... and sure, you gave some good descriptions regarding your views and how you arrived at your views.. nonetheless, it seems to me that we have been here so many damned times that it is not even funny, and even AlcoHoDL's earlier post comparing early 2017 sentiment seemed to have similar kinds of technical arguments going on regarding the ONLY way is down.. blah blah blah..

Probably yes, I have a habit of being overly bullish at support and short-term relatively bearish when I don't see any, not going to deny that. For better or for worse, I'd prefer to average in around $46K-48K in the hope that it holds, and failing that, wait for sub $40K. Even if price spends a very limited amount of time below this level. So far I thought $42.5K wouldn't hold as support, so I'll stick to my theories for now. Quite likely price will bounce back to $45K soon enough, and from there can see if it will get rejected or hold, so no real loss not buying much of this particular dip imo if price strands a good chance at going lower, or higher.

I recall similar in April/May 2020 too (including the well-reasoned arguments that we would not likely see supra $10k for a couple more years).. and those guys did not do too well in terms of supra $10k coming a few months later, and then we know what ended up happening between September 2020 and April 2021, right?

I wouldn't compare this current price action to pre-halving sentiment. Personally I thought a dip back down to $8K was likely, but otherwise pretty split 50-50 on immediate up or down, otherwise remained bullish.

.. but yeah, if it goes down, buy some more (if you dare).. and even buy some here (if you dare), it will likely pay off quite well in the coming 1-9 months, and if 1-9 months does not work out, at least it should be good 4-10 years down the road (as a back up plan in case the next 1-9 months do not work out so well).

For sure no no arguments there, I still think this year will lead to higher highs, despite all the doom and gloomers out there talking of $20K, $10K and other nonsense. Still don't see any of that. Bare in mind I did previously consider the idea of dropping down to $30Ks, which to me would only confirm some neutral sideways trading for 12 months (between $30K and $70K), so this still stands for me. Unlike many others out there, the short-term bearish picture still doesn't make me long term bearish, as the price structure is completely different fortunately, that of a relatively neutral market in the mid-term.

Not that we are there yet, but my main issue with breaking through $40K is that the previous higher macro low of September becomes invalidated, so somewhat resets the structure back to neutral. Neutral is certainly not a bad thing either imo, at least not in Bitcoin land and being at higher levels. Neutral sideways trading has always led to up quickly enough, even if there is a short period of down in between.

I'm still in for the long-run, so there is no worries there. I'm otherwise averaging in with some shitcoin profits now that Bitcoin's market dominance is bouncing again, so no issues there for dip buying  

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin 'inventor' will face forgery claims over his Satoshi Nakamoto proof, rules High Court.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/06/craig_wright_satoshi_nakamoto_forgery_claims/