Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

I see a near future and further future where both many OG BTC‘ers will think

I have sold to damn early at a to cheap price

[1653664143]

1653664143

[gembitz]

I see a near future and further future where both many OG BTC‘ers will think

I have sold to damn early at a to cheap price

to see us skyrocket up to 100k before the end of the year would be amazing ;-D ha

[BitcoinBunny]

Such a good point. So ridiculous these YouTube assholes.
Genuinely the only ones I can bear now are InvestAnswers and Pomp when he doesn't have fucking imbeciles on. There's been quite a few this week except Max Kaiser.

Heck even bloody Peter Schiff was at least entertaining last week compared to those fucking loud mouth shouty imbeciles.

But they are making money with their fucking exchange affiliate links. So they will never stop.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

I see a near future and further future where both many OG BTC‘ers will think

I have sold to damn early at a to cheap price

to see us skyrocket up to 100k before the end of the year would be amazing ;-D ha

Not sure about that for 2021….

Though it will happen soon

It will be interesting as well to see the FIAT assets skyrocketing into inflation more and more

BTC will be doing good imho

[AlcoHoDL]

The question Meta really needs to address:

If 3 beautiful whores can barely keep me entertained in VR for more than 15 minutes why would I ever want to use that shit to watch Zuckerberg's face and his pathetic sidekick products and a bunch of garbage NFT asshole pieces of crap?

Are you talking about the Oculus Quest? I read somewhere that by purchasing it you're not actually buying anything, but rather, you're selling your body & soul to Zuckerberg. The thing costs more to make that what it's "selling" for -- guess what (who) the product is.

BTW, is VR pr0n nice? I've never had the experience...

[Shamm]

30K uh eerrr pagez o WO will justify to 30k BTC?   teehee

Need 27 pages to reach 30k  it's easy to reach that this month.😁
30k BTC sounds great.

[JayJuanGee]

Yesterday's sell-off wasn't related to the derivate markets, nor to a rush of hodlers to sell in fear of a bear market. So, this probably means that OTC desks are the culprit and possibly highly involved in the last month selling pressure. Whether it is one rotten whale or a bunch of hedge companies looking for some profit at the end of the year is irrelevant. These were just some ill timed big sales in a bull market. Now there is no reason for this to continue much longer - the supply of coins on exchanges continues to decline (unlike 2017), open interest and high leverage longs are no more, no FUD, ban, etc. news are around.

Historically, each bigger sell-off continues maximum one month after the local top, so we must be close to a reversal now. Perhaps the only thing in favour of the bears is the fear that 69K was the top of the cycle and it will be followed by a 85% correction. And probably this will lead to more high leverage shorts than before and less high leverage longs. In that case, we definitely will see at least one big short squeeze in 2022. As seasoned hodlers we know that if 95% of the traders expect a certain movement, in reality the opposite happens. It is too early to tell but may be the time has arrived when we see no more 2-3 year bear markets. Instead, a new pattern may be formed: 2 months of some increase, followed by 1-2 months of a correction, cleansing the weak hands, and resuming the upward movement.

Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.

We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.

So an 85% correction would be right around $10k... which is a bit more than half of the current 208-week moving average (which is currently over $18k and in recent times has been moving up close to 100% per year.. but such growth could slow down to 50%-70% per year)... which makes sub $20k quite unlikely, especially that we have had a couple of decently sized BTC price corrections since after we had our 6.5x/6.9x price appreciation from early September 2020... peaking in April 2021 at $64,895 and also so far peaking November 9, 2021 at $69k.

You are describing some weird-ass shit if you are expecting anything even close to an 85% current.. and especially if we would expect anything other than a perhaps downity spike... that would likely hardly be sustainable.. especially once we take the 208-week moving average into account.

I will grant that sub $30k (65% down-ish) BTC prices are way more likely and also getting down to $20k (71% down-ish)  would not have impossible odds.. even if they really seem like they would be quite low odds to get that far down given the BTC price corrections that we already had this cycle and how they had so far played out.

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

-snip-

Good luck with your 85% draw down in the event that $69k had been the top for this cycle.

We already had a 56% correction (from $64,895), and we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967.

-snip-

Looks to me like we already had our 95% draw down... so up 10% and flat for a while before blow off top? I'm OK with that...

[Torque]

I saw this PlanB tweet after I had already drafted and posted my above post... and surely I think that PlanB and I are saying similar things - but he seems to like to get his lil selfie into trouble with his use of absolutes... but whatever.. he can do his lil thingie..

I think another issue with PlanB is the assumption that there will always be "a bear market -80% draw down" from every market top.

That's absurd to believe that. As the Bitcoin market gets bigger, volatility in either direction gets smaller. The main reason is because leverage stays relatively flat, i.e., the same amount of leverage applied to an ever increasing sized market has less and less of an effect over time in either direction.

[El duderino_]

Very correct @Torque

[BitcoinBunny]

The question Meta really needs to address:

If 3 beautiful whores can barely keep me entertained in VR for more than 15 minutes why would I ever want to use that shit to watch Zuckerberg's face and his pathetic sidekick products and a bunch of garbage NFT asshole pieces of crap?

Are you talking about the Oculus Quest? I read somewhere that by purchasing it you're not actually buying anything, but rather, you're selling your body & soul to Zuckerberg. The thing costs more to make that what it's "selling" for -- guess what (who) the product is.

BTW, is VR pr0n nice? I've never had the experience...

VR pr0n definitely has its moments I would say. It's better than I thought it would be.
Only used a shitty Oculus Go but at least that meant old Zuckface couldn't see what I was watching as it doesn't need a FB login (though I believe that is changing for Oculus Quest 2). No idea if 8K is worth it. I've heard conflicting reports.

I actually think the best videos are when it simulates a darkish room environment like a strip joint and you watch in darkness (the first VR video I ever saw was Jizzles - Disco Bitch about 3 years ago I think. My initial reaction was "wow!" - especially when it seems the girl is looking straight into your eyes but that novelty sort of wears off). It really reminded me of being in a real stripclub or whorehouse.  
There's only been very, very few videos I've seen that reached that sort of atmosphere. Part of the problem is probably when the girls start talking crap it sort of ruins things (like in real life). The cosplay stuff initially seemed an interesting idea to me but quite boring in execution in reality.

But definitely try VRP if you are interested and without investing much money / time / effort.

Oculus should pay me 10 BTC for writing that.

[OutOfMemory]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.

 

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

[Raja_MBZ]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

[AlcoHoDL]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

I didn't know chairs could think, let alone propose Bitcoin code changes. Must be one of the the new AI models.

[Torque]

Aside shower thought:

I know quite a few here on WO have followed PlanB's S2F model for some time now, and some of you may really believe in it strongly.

But I would ask you to look at it from another angle.

PlanB and his model appeared out of nowhere, right as the new bull cycle was taking off in mid-2020. Seems a bit convenient timing, doncha think?

Well if you have been around for many years here on WO, you would know that we see some rumor of future bullish news come out at the start of literally every single bull cycle. Every time, it was always pointing to some bullish "sure thing" just over the horizon, whether it was "Wall Street is coming to pile in!" or "Amazon and Facebook are going to adopt bitcoin!" (2013), or "A Bitcoin ETF launching any day now!" (2016), and this past year "PlanB's S2F model predicting $200K+ by Q3 2021!" (2020-2021).

Look, I get it. We all love and want some bullish rumor of future news to hang our hat on and get excited about. That's human nature. But they always do this stuff to draw in the get-rich-quick n00bs to buy Bitcoin at over-leveraged, over-inflated high prices during the bull run. That's their purpose. And if you stay a hodler long enough and are observant, you'll be able to recognize this same pattern over and over again.

So please consider that PlanB could just be another insider plant by the whale traders to spin bullish hopium. There are never any "sure things" wrt Bitcoin.

And for gods sake, just hodl bitcoin for the long run. Think in many many years, not in months. Keep buying, keep DCA'ing. Hodl for life.

[shahzadafzal]

RIPPLE CHAIR PROPOSES PLAN TO MOVE BITCOIN AWAY FROM PROOF-OF-WORK. $XRP $BTC #BTC

lol

Then we shouldn’t be calling it Bitcoin… let it be any other shit coin… I would suggest Buttcoin would be a nice name.

Executive Chairman and Co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen has unveiled his plan for Bitcoin miners to move away from Proof of Work (PoW), saying they should view it as “a net positive for their longevity.”

He argues it could provide a major boost to the share prices of listed mining firms “as any new code proposal would almost certainly have to include lucrative incentives to gain their support.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-chair-s-pay-off-plan-to-convince-btc-miners-to-adopt-proof-of-stake