Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I'm glad to be one of the 5% who knows who it is - so even though Sidney Poitier may have been in the shadow of great actors like Katharine Hepburn & Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), I personally remember him from that film in which he has achieved one of his best roles for me personally. RIP💐

I remember him in Duel at Diablo (1966). That western left an impression on me, as I watched it at a very young age. The scene near the end when the Indians torture one of the characters by stripping him naked and leaving him to literally "bake" under the sun still haunts me to this day.

[Torque]

OT: Hilarious how the MSM is beating up on tech stonks and saying there is a sell-off and people should avoid.

The whales are not selling off, they are massively shorting to get in a better long position. They are not getting out, they are getting in. I predict that Big Tech will end 2022 massively up.

But why would Big Tech be a buy, during a time when the Fed is jawboning about QE tapering and rate hikes?

Three easy reasons:

1. Because when there is less free money to go around, the Central Banks will do what they have always done in the past: take that lessened liquidity and concentrate it on just a few stonks -- the FAANGS. Then all the other stonk market indexes will tie themselves to those few equities. Just like they did 2016-. (yes, this market is completely rigged)

2. Because Big Tech is the gift that keeps on giving: low cost/high margins, easy digital marketing, and built-in obsolescence of products and services.

3. All the small and mid cap value companies' stonks will get crushed in a lower QE environment without any CB support.

I mean, they're already telegraphing it:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/jim-cramer-says-these-5-old-tech-stocks-could-have-a-big-year-in-2022.html

Btw, this will also be good for Bitcoin.

[BitcoinBunny]

I remember Sidney Poitier mostly from Shoot To Kill with Kirstie Alley.

Apparently one of the very few movies he did in the 80s.

It isn't exactly a very famous film but I remember it being pretty damn entertaining.

That sort of bad guy holding a hiking expert at gun point and making their way through harsh terrain story.

Done many times since (see River Wild & Cliffhanger) but I remember Shoot To Kill being one of the first ones like that I saw as a kid.

[shahzadafzal]

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I'm glad to be one of the 5% who knows who it is - so even though Sidney Poitier may have been in the shadow of great actors like Katharine Hepburn & Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), I personally remember him from that film in which he has achieved one of his best roles for me personally. RIP💐

I literally knew nothing about him until I Google. Although I have seen few of his old movies.

RIP

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

The New Is Coming

The new is coming. We have said many times that there are changes occurring beneath the surface, so to speak. There are technologies which are available already on our planet and they have been available for many, many years. There are technologies to create free energy. Technologies to clean your water. Technologies to repopulate the Earth with beautiful, nourishing soil. These technologies are already there, but the old control is not allowing them to surface yet. But know, Beloveds, they are there. In this process of the old breaking down, there is much change happening.

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I'm going to be OK. I just ordered some ramen from wish.com.

[shahzadafzal]

Every other token or coin try to be another “bitcoin”, but can they beat bitcoin here?


https://twitter.com/robustus/status/1479806883640840193?s=21

[eXPHorizon]

lol... everything 0 ? Thats why Bitcoin is 100% going to fail !

This aside, it is still a nice cashgrab opportunity


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjzGlXD6bsQ

This EP is awesome xD
ya should of taken the Cryptonian offer, yad be swiming in 6 digits rn

[xhomerx10]

I'm going to be OK. I just ordered some ramen from wish.com.

 Wishdotcom?! Dear god!  The best outcome is that it never arrives (probability of 0.875) because it is likely made from melamine (probability of 0.75).  You'd be better off taking your chances with starvation.

[shahzadafzal]

I'm going to be OK. I just ordered some ramen from wish.com.

 Wishdotcom?! Dear god!  The best outcome is that it never arrives (probability of 0.875) because it is likely made from melamine (probability of 0.75).  You'd be better off taking your chances with starvation.

hahahaha wish.com…. I remember once I ordered butt plugs from them but never arrived.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.

What you do is you randomly assign percentages based on your current emotions  

Are you serious dragonvslinux? 

Some of us might get lines wrong, but I suspect that cAPSLOCK is attempting to be objective rather than emotional, even if there are some faults in his squiggly placements.

I could be wrong, but I took that more as a playful suggestion rather than a criticism of my own processes.

Fair enough.. I did see the possible friendly jab in there too.......

That said, I also do work on remaining objective in this environment, which is, frankly, sometimes hard.  Even after so many years of rising the Bitcoin coaster I can still get a little shook up by it. 

Yep... it is a bit strange that many of us can still get those kinds of feelings, even if we were to take an average cost of $1k, and we can feel that we went down from 69x in profits to ONLY 41x in profits... but maybe if our costs were ONLY $100 then we would be less concerned about going down from 690x in profits to ONLY 410x in profits, even though we would prefer to NOT be going down in our profits levels, but for sure there is some dynamic in there regarding how much in profits we might be. 

Oh, and take the other side of the profits level with some of the newbies of the past few years, some of these guys might have been able to accumulate a stash for an average of around $10k, as the example that I provided with shahzadafzal a few days ago (last paragraph of this post).  These guys might have gone from 6.9x in profits to ONLY 4.1x in profits, and so of course, they likely become even more worried than the guys with an earlier bitcoin entry-point timeline.

I believe that the sense of more calm these days does not ONLY come from your level of profits in you BTC investment portfolio, but also: 1) the overall power of the bitcoin investment thesis including the BIGgedness of some of the new bitcoin entrants becoming much more powerful in the past couple of years and 2) various aspects of recent BTC price performance that include both the 56% correction of May/June/July and today's so far 41% correction, shows that downside BTC price scenarios are not as likely to be in the 70% to 90% arena.. a 70
% correction would bring BTC prices down to $20k-ish, and a 90% correction would bring BTC prices down to $6,900-ish.  I just cannot see those kinds of scenarios being too likely in playing out, and I cannot imagine a world in which trucks won't be backed up to fill with BTC in the event that sub $30k prices were to be seen again.. ... so even though anything could happen, including the lower of prices, it does seem that we can feel a certain level of confidence regarding the extremes of how bad it could get even being tolerable scenarios.

Though I will say my current feeling of general zen around the market action is definitely something way higher than any other time in the past.

One major improvement, is I wrote a simple little android widget in which I could put an equation.  It made two API calls to get BTC and XMR prices.  And showed me a sum.  Basically "'how many dollars is your Bitcoin (and XMR) worth at this moment".  After running that for years.. I stopped about 3 months ago.  A damn good choice, frankly.

Well maybe it gets back to the question regarding NOT worrying so much about the level of your wealth going down from 690x in profits to ONLY 410x in profits because even if the amount that your wealth has gone down looks like a lot, you are not really that materially affected by that - unless, I suppose that you were considering cashing out soon.. and many of us remain long term HODLers even if we have been into BTC for a while, so we can shave off a bit of BTC anytime that we want.. and don't get me wrong, I am more in the camp of the going from 69x in profits to ONLY 41x in profits, so I don't really feel that I am greatly hindered in the event that I would want to shave off some BTC.. and let's say for example, any of us longer term BTC HODLers would want to shave off some relatively large quantity of BTC in the coming calendar year (2022), and maybe that quantity is ONLY a few percentages of our BTC holdings.... so if we end up shaving off at the worst times in the year, maybe we end up having to shave off  4-5% of our holdings, but if we could catch a price spike we would get the same amount of cash for 1-2%... so there might be some preference to be able to cash out at a top rather than a bottom.. even though we cannot really know where those are at, exactly.. especially while we are in the midst of the whole thing and thinking what should we do?  Based on the dip where we are at right now (40% down), my tentative plan would be to shave off 1/4 of the amount every quarter.. and yeah, the cashing out will not get maximized, but if there were a spike in the middle, I might be able to cash out more.. let's say prices shot up into the $90ks, then maybe I would just shave off the whole amount rather than 1/4 each quarter, but of course there surely would be discretion and each guy is not necessarily going to execute such shaving off of BTC in the same ways.

[philipma1957]

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I'm glad to be one of the 5% who knows who it is - so even though Sidney Poitier may have been in the shadow of great actors like Katharine Hepburn & Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), I personally remember him from that film in which he has achieved one of his best roles for me personally. RIP💐

Raisin in the sun

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Raisin_in_the_Sun_(1961_film)


very good movie

My all time favorite is "Lilies of the Field"


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilies_of_the_Field_(1963_film)

[Flangler1]

I actually did look into it and my conclusion is that the biggest fear is when the bear market is starting.
Here I drew lines where Fear&Greed hit 10 or went below . This tool is more usefoul in short term trading rather long term.

[philipma1957]

I actually did look into it and my conclusion is that the biggest fear is when the bear market is starting.
Here I drew lines where Fear&Greed hit 10 or went below . This tool is more usefoul in short term trading rather long term.

I got some Tasty 40k dip today

[JayJuanGee]

This made me laugh but sometimes I found it bitter truth

CB takes it from $47k>$46k>$45k>$44k>$43k>$42k and now we stand at $41k but still holding hard because i Know we will grow at one point and some bullish news will take us to rocket upwards as the engine ignition is happening soon and all these price levels will be burst out in the fire.

Just HOLD strong.

Huh?  I thought that you are in very early BTC accumulation stages, so why would you even be close to contemplating anything other than the employment of various BTC accumulation strategies.. when to buy and how much to buy.  HODL does not embrace that concept, unless you may have run out of money because you had been too aggressive with your buys. 

In other words, you seem to be mis-using the concept of HODL that does not seems to apply to your actual situation... unless I misunderstand what you are wanting to say.

Sure, you have outlined a historic practice of buying weekly, so why would that practice of buying change, unless you merely either attempt to buy more on the dip (to be more aggressive with your buys) or something like that.

A HODL strategy is usually for someone who has already accumulated quite a bit of BTC and might be nervous about a further potential BTC drop.. Yes, the point in which you might have accumulated too much BTC is going to differ from some people, and sometimes people are struggling to get up to even $100 per week to invest into bitcoin, so the amount of their bitcoin might seem to be a lot when it might start to represent years of salary.. and then at the same time it is dropping from "profitable" to being "in the red."

For sure, these are times that test the commitment of the accumulators to continue to accumulate, including to test if maybe some of the accumulators might have been investing more than they can afford to lose.. especially if your BTC portfolio might have gone from something like 20% to 50% in profits to 20% to 50% into negative territories.. then do you continue to buy, or do you stop buying and merely "hodl?"  which also makes little to no sense if you are actually in relatively early stages of BTC accumulation mode.

Sometimes the guys predicting the direction of the market during times like this try to outsmart the market and to sell some or all of their BTC upon a 41%-ish price correction out of hopes to buy back lower.... and sometimes those guys might not have a whole hell of a lot of BTC, so they do not feel comfortable selling just part of their BTC as a kind of insurance (which is already dumb), they double down on dumb and they sell all of their BTC, so instead of having a decently size stash of 0.42 BTC, they end up with 0.3 BTC or some other ways in which they are not able to get back to the quantity of BTC that they previously had which frequently is not a good strategy to be gambling like that, even if sometimes it could end up paying off.. but more like luck rather than a good strategy..

Seems to me that anyone in early BTC accumulation should not be entering into any HODL strategy unless s/he might have gotten too aggressive on buying on dips and DCA'ing and maybe run out of money having had thought that he blew his whole wadd on the dip.. but the BTC price keeps dipping... so that would likely be HODL.. until more money comes in... but is that any different from continuing to employ a DCA strategy?  If your DCA strategy is with an amount of money that you have already budgeted, such as $100 per week, then you should continue with $100 per week and not be trying to time the market with that money (except maybe such timing might be acceptable within whichever week that you have authorized your BTC buys).   

Surely, if you have more money coming in from time to time, then maybe you do not want to fold that within your DCA, and you end up classifying that additional money as authorized for buying on dip, so with that money you might want to attempt to be strategic for when you buy.. whether now or you wait a bit (HODL) until a time that feels comfortable for you to employ that additional money that might have come in that goes beyond your regular DCA amounts.

By the way, I understand that it might seem that I am being unduly harsh on peeps who come from lower income locations, but I am still going to have trouble understanding how even a $100 per week buying of bitcoin will give you the sense of being over-invested after only about 7 months of investing into BTC.  Now, if you had been investing $100 per week in BTC for 4 years, and you had accumulated something like 2.22 BTC, then I may well have a bit more sympathy that you might want to attempt to strategize with some of that BTC, and the use of HODL would likely be an applicable use of the word.... so surely, if you are starting to acquire higher levels of BTC, such as already having 2.22 BTC, then you might start to consider that you have already invested enough.. especially given your total income and the other assets that you have... in which bitcoin might be the bulk of your whole wealth, so at a certain point you may well logically start to get worried about putting more value into bitcoin.

[friends1980]

RIP

95%+ of WO'ers had no clue who that is, because they aren't old enough to have actually seen a movie that he was in. They had to google who he was.

I’m underage, but the day before it was on the news …. They showed a few movie pieces

Mostly movies around colored people they said

I never saw him before the news article

I believe 93 years old which is a very nice age….

Now he can RIP

Can't help thinking about the pilot from "Only fools and horses". Another series most of you are prolly too young for. (don't feel insulted 'cause that also means I'm old)

I remember the first lines being a discussion about "Sidney Potter, you know he always plays the black fella".

Hilarious.

RIP.