Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

FWIW a firefox FORK like waterfox might be my answer.  I would love to trim the bloat anyway.

As to all these solo blocks appearing.  Umm.  We are sure of these miner's hashrate? Truly in the single Whatsminer sort of range?

I keep waiting for some giant chip fab entity (ie Samsung, Motorolla, Intel, AMD, Nvidea etc) developing a SHA256 ASIC on the down-low and starting to test them... I do not know enough about this tech/market to know if this is a possibility, but my gut thinks so.  But I do not think it is impossible that some chip maker could get a quick ROI testing (Butterfly Labs style) a brand new ASIC.  The financial incentive for this is crazy high.

The fucking political garbage being fronted by Firefox and Wikimedia will hold us back.

See how these two threads tie together?

Forgive my ignorance...but have you tried Brave?
https://brave.com/



Edit:
I use Edge on my Mac, becuz fuckem

I use firefox on PC, 'cause fuckem twice (the longest monopoly ever).
deleting mozilla due to bitcoin whatever is a bit premature....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Any mining expert can disclose how many machines or how much it currently would cost to set up a mining arrangement that produces 126 Terahashes (TH) of mining power?

The Bitmain S19 has 110Th/s

On average if you solo mined with one Bitmain S19 (110TH) you would find a block about once every 30 years (assuming current difficulty stays constant, which it won’t )

Something strange has just happened:



This is a very unlikely event:



What is this?
Incredible luck?
Miners in this pools looking all like solo miners?
A marketing stunt from the pool operators trying to lure miners in their pools?

I guess it is this.
Funnily enough I thought miners being the most rational agents, not easily fooled.
We will see…

News like this can be turned into FUD to scare the noobs. I can almost see the headline: Breaking! Bitcoin Hacked! Hackers Found the Way to Trick the System! 

[Hueristic]

Actually the wikipedia guys try to catch the same ESG train recently:

https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Requests_for_comment/Stop_accepting_cryptocurrency_donations

Only few understand that BTC actually helps renewable and green energy by using that energy when nobody else does/wants to.

Yeah, they mark anyone that comments thats not an insider with a "canvassed" Tag.

That place is the definition of a circle jerk!

[ImThour]

What today is a dip in price, will be the lowest BTC could even reach in March, 2024 according to Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.
Glad you find this hopium.

[Biodom]

..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
The last, last, last buying opportunity?

[ImThour]

..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
A last buying opportunity?

You didn't actually got my point.

What I mean is, the lowest possible price of BTC in 2024 will be $42k range. Currently, it's $16k range.
So, the price at that time should be almost above $120k.

Hope this clears it a bit.

[Biodom]

..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
A last buying opportunity?

You didn't actually got my point.

What I mean is, the lowest possible price of BTC in 2024 will be $42k range. Currently, it's $16k range.
So, the price at that time should be almost above $120k.

Hope this clears it a bit.

yes, i got it, but i never was a fan of this log log scale graph.
It completely ignores the potential from the hockey stick adoption curve (if it happens).

[JayJuanGee]

..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
A last buying opportunity?

You didn't actually got my point.

What I mean is, the lowest possible price of BTC in 2024 will be $42k range. Currently, it's $16k range.
So, the price at that time should be almost above $120k.

Hope this clears it a bit.

yes, i got it, but i never was a fan of this log log scale graph.
It completely ignores the potential from the hockey stick adoption curve (if it happens).

We have already been in the midst of hockey stick curve adoption, even if it might not feel like it at all times.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

I used to mine and the most important formula for me in determining whether I could be profitable or not was:

 [2¹⁶-1]/[2⁴⁸D] which (since we're working with such large numbers) you can boil down to

 1/2³²D

where D is the current difficulty 24371874614345 (you can find it here: https://chainquery.com/bitcoin-cli/getdifficulty).

 That formula gives you the probability of any computed hash leading to a valid block.

 1/104,676,404,410,824,387,461,120

 So for a single 110TH miner the probabilty of a block in one second is

 1/951,603,676

  Solo pools don't share the reward among all the miners but they still pool their resources to work on the same block.  In this case, only the miner who finds it gets the reward but the combined hashrate of all participants would be used.

 CK solo pool (https://solo.ckpool.org/pool/) has about 2000 users with about 13,000 devices and shows a hashrate of 37.6 PH/s so the probability of a valid block in one second is

 1/2,783,947

 which indicates they should solve about one block every month.

 Of course, the hashrate fluctuates as users come and go and difficulty changes ~every 2 weeks but finding 2 blocks in a month with their current hashrate is pretty lucky.  However, if you look back at their previous history, they have been rather unlucky; finding only 4 blocks in all of 2020 and only 2 in 2019.  You can't cheat at hashing bitcoin - it all comes out in the wash.  It's normal distribution but very exciting for CK I'm sure.

[suchmoon]

1/2,783,947

 which indicates they should solve about one block every month.

Every 32 hours actually (2,783,947 / 3600 / 24).

However their hashrate was much lower (like an order of magnitude lower) before the recent two blocks so it seems that fillippone had a point here:

Funnily enough I thought miners being the most rational agents, not easily fooled.

Not particularly rational if they start solo mining after someone else won a solo block.

[xhomerx10]

1/2,783,947

 which indicates they should solve about one block every month.

Every 32 hours actually (2,783,947 / 3600 / 24).

However their hashrate was much lower (like an order of magnitude lower) before the recent two blocks so it seems that fillippone had a point here:

Funnily enough I thought miners being the most rational agents, not easily fooled.

Not particularly rational if they start solo mining after someone else won a solo block.

 Isn't that days when you divide by the number of seconds per hour 3600 and then the number of hours per day 24?

edit: It is 32 days which is, as I was saying, about a month.  With their current hashrate, the CK pool should make about 0.19 BTC per day on average.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1481696140114468869?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

Isn't that days when you divide by the number of seconds per hour 3600 and then the number of hours per day 24?

edit: It is 32 days which is, as I was saying, about a month.  With their current hashrate, the CK pool should make about 0.19 BTC per day on average.

Sorry, you're right, I don't even know what I was looking at to mangle it so badly.