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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368456 times)
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January 14, 2022, 03:01:38 PM


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January 14, 2022, 04:01:28 PM


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January 14, 2022, 04:16:07 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)

OT: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/14/retail-sales-december-2021.html

So TPTB did lockdowns in December again, hoping that it would push consumers to buy more online instead of at local brick-and-mortar stores.

In-store purchases: -1.9%

Online purchases: -8.7%  Cheesy

Wholesale prices: +9.7%  Cry

Online retailers got seriously fucked for Xmas. Serves them right.
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January 14, 2022, 04:38:37 PM

What did I miss? A dump for ants?  Cool
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January 14, 2022, 04:54:46 PM

Something old, but still funny. A video lesson for daily trading. The kid seems to know what is doing and it all started well, but then... full proudhon/r0ach mode  Grin Grin Grin

The boy vs shovel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvMd88TiOCc
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January 14, 2022, 05:01:28 PM


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January 14, 2022, 05:09:38 PM

Wow this is an amazing graph if you look deep and stare it for 10 minutes, so as of 2020 median U.S. household net worth is $121,700 (~2.83 BTC as of today). Now if we extend this graph and take it to average of ~2.83 BTC to be held by retails, then it will easily put the bitcoin price to $811k.

I know it’s a stupid math but why not :p

One of the biggest criticisms of Bitcoin surrounds its supply distribution.

Looking at the data, supply held by retail (<10 BTC) is one direction: Up and to the Right.

This also isn't even including the fact that many "whales" are custodians/exchanges holding BTC for millions.

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January 14, 2022, 05:23:41 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), jojo69 (1)

An opinion piece on CoinDesk
"Nayib Bukele Is Not the Bitcoin Hero We Need"
https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/01/14/nayib-bukele-is-not-the-bitcoin-hero-we-need/

TL;DR Installed Israeli spyware Pegasus on several regime opponents, mainly journalists.
Just like Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia (remember Jamal Khashoggi?) and other citizen-friendly governments.
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January 14, 2022, 06:01:36 PM


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philipma1957
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January 14, 2022, 06:22:22 PM



I know that BTC is directly responsible for the install ion of 2 solars arrays we use

45kwatts
115kwatts

and is responsible for the 280kwatt array we are installing today.

Worthless real estate ie rooftops are now creating power.

So BTC actually creates new real estate and new power. much like a hammer it is a tool that if use properly helps people.

Philipma, are you using battery storage or grid-tied? Just curious.

grid.  NJ is a net meter state.

so use factors of 5 and 6 like this

280/5 = 56
280/6 = 46.67

so the 280 watts array will give between 46.67 to 56 kwatts 24/7/365

depends on rainy year vs dry year.

so the big array can do 14 to 17 s19pro miners for btc
or 23 to 28  12 card server cases for the shit coin eth
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January 14, 2022, 06:23:39 PM

NGL. Getting tired of this price shit...

I second that!  Cool

Don't worry, it will change.
* OutOfMemory goes back hibernating

Yeah if that was the bounce I am very disapointed, Was thinking we'd at least get to the 45k handle. and be there for longer than a day.

Oh well, on-chain fundamentals are still good and futures funding rates are saying a short squeeze is more likely on the cards now.

Wouldn't be suprised if it falls below sub $40k again.

I swear i tried selling 0.1 BTC just before the dip because of resons (SOMA) when i saw it struggling to move upwards, but i was on the road, then put my daughter to sleep and the next thing i saw was the big red one on my notebook Angry
So no +0.01 BTC for me  Roll Eyes (this time).
I was hating life for a short moment, i admit it.
#HODL

You seem to be trading a very tight range.. and of course, we should not be presumptive about the circumstances of anyone.

Of course, any of us who are already largely in profits, whether that is in the 43x territory or even something like 4.3x, there is a lot of liberty in terms of shaving a wee bit of bitcoin off at any point in the price cycle, even if they happen to be within pretty tight BTC price movement ranges.

I will admit that there is some boredom in having a relatively larger range that takes quite a bit more BTC price movement for the orders to be triggered - even though that has been my stated goals for the past 6 years or so... Make the ranges bigger... make the ranges Bigger, make the ranges BIGger.. make the ranges BIGGER... ...

The next goal is to try to NOT get too bored by less action, and sure the BTC price could end up shooting up or it could end up shooting down.  I am inclined to think that we are due for some UP.. but I can understand that so much seemingly ongoing boredom can cause some people to do something (or to trade within this range), which largely ends up being a way for some of the BIGGER players to get a few more coins at these here prices... How many more can they get?  Is it worth it to keep the price down here for so long?  It can cost money to keep the price down.  Is it worth the price?

I suppose the smartest thing.. upon getting bored should either be to just HODL.. and wait.. and maybe buy some more coins.. if you dare?  Sure there are some folks trying to trade our current range.. which so far has been the bouncing around the bottom of the correction range... 35% to 41%... and $43k seems to be nearly in the middle of that.. 37.7%.... going down from that?  What are the odds?  Yes we did make it up to $44,456 which would have been in the 35.6% correction zone.  Maybe we end up getting a spike down before going up?  Which kind of seemed like could have been what happened a few hours ago when we spiked down to $41,782 before going up to $43,352... Sure that's enough to trade and to cover fees and even to get some decent profits if you are ready, willing and able to trade within 3.6% price moves while in the middle of our seemingly 35% to 41% correction zone.. and if you zoom out, you might wonder about whether it's worth it to try to pick up those nickels in front of that steam roller (Greg Foss likes to use that expression)

Wouldn't be suprised if it falls below sub $40k again.

IMO it doesn't matter, unless this delevops into a deeper and longer bear market. In that case, DCA investors like me will profit more. We all know 100K is a matter of when, not if, so it is better to DCA 2-3 times cheaper. I remember how bad I felt in 2018 seeing the decline from 20K to 3K. But I used the opportunity to buy as much as possible. I really doubt that this scenario will repeat this year, because of too many reasons which make the difference. One of them is that in 2018 we had several 50-100% price jumps from the local bottom. This is likely to happen this year, which means we will have "a dead cat bounce" to 80K-ish, which is a new ATH. And that will effectively mean that we are still in a bull market. This is of course, if the bottom is in the 30K-40K range, which seems to be the case, seeing how hard it is for the bears to break 40K.

There does seem to be a bit of a struggle with getting below $40k this time, and I am not going to presume that $40k cannot be broken towards the DOWNity.

Remember in late 2018, we had around 5 or 6 attempts to break below $6k before it finally broke below.

For sure, we are not in the same place as we were in late 2018 - but still some of the price dynamics of what might be feasible or possible can still play out in short-term periods. 

Right now, we seem to have ongoing attempts to discourage HODLers, and if the price can stay at the lower end of the correction range for long enough, there can come period in which it could break below such current levels of the correction range.

Furthermore, I have some difficulties appreciating anything close to $80k being realistic as a current top, if we do start to resume our UPpity.

Accordingly, there could be some resistance in the $53k-$55k range, and then another level of resistance around sub-$62k, but getting above $62k likely brings us to our sub $100k resistance if any exists around the $92k levels... and there after going above $100k.. would there be much resistance around there?  $120k?  $150k?  $180k?

I would imagine that there has to be some battle areas in the lower $100ks to try to get the BTC price back below $100k, yet sure maybe a lot of this remains presumptive because we have to first get out of our 35% to 41% correction doldrums and then get above $53k-$55k and then into the supra $62k zone that brings us up to $92k.. so surely there are no "givens" with any of this.
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January 14, 2022, 07:01:28 PM


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January 14, 2022, 07:07:29 PM


I think shaming businesses (or individuals) for using energy is a bad approach in general, instead support rules/regulations to make sure the energy produced is clean. If your area produces all energy from coal or gas, that's the problem right there, don't blame the consumer of electricity. Perhaps this is stating the obvious, and the real agenda is to smear Bitcoin mining due to politics so basic logic doesn't apply, but just in case someone actually believes the claims from mainstream media.

I think shaming businesses or individuals is a detestable way of trying to influence and is rife in our modern social environment.
Instead of shaming I believe bad behaviour should be ignored and opponents to the said bad behaviour should be looking to promote a better alternative and highlight areas where things are going well.
Maybe I am an idealist and naive.
Just saying that I would like to see more positive behaviour from my fellow human rather than a shouting down everyone from our soapboxes.
Luckily for us most here at WO are a little more gentlemanly!

For sure, some of these more recent discussions of power consumption and the kinds of power that might be more acceptable than others, has gotten me all mixed up in my concerns about the role of the state.  The virus matters are not helping either.

I tend to believe that we cannot really get rid of the state.  I tend to believe that there are some public goods that should not be privatized or left to free-market forces... so for sure I am not going to assert that I know too many of the answers regarding such matters.  At the same time, many of us know that bitcoin is not going to just roll over regarding some of the energy regulatory matters... Interesting times for sure, and surely even the virus has not stopped the ability of miners to relocate or even the incentives to take up the mining mantle in other locations in the event that some jurisdictions become hostile to bitcoin mining.

We are about half way through this difficulty period, so the next difficulty period is estimated to happen on January 21.   As I type this post, the estimation is for the difficulty adjustment to go up between 4.5% and 6%.. really amazing that we are currently at all time highs in hashrate...

See this current hashrate snapshot (or click on the link below for an actual current status):
>>>>>>>>>>
Latest Block:   718681  (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace:   105.9412%  (986 / 930.71 expected, 55.29 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                            
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 25434754772542 and 25832708841079
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.3611% and +5.9939%
Previous Retarget:   January 7, 2022 at 11:40 PM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 21, 2022 at 4:50 AM  (in 6d 18h 2m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 21, 2022 at 9:45 AM  (in 6d 22h 57m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 9m 25s and 13d 10h 4m 32s
<<<<<<<<<<<<<

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

so there was about an 8 month passage of time to get the hashrate back to this level.. from mid-May 2021 to now.... and my what interesting times to see if maybe some other attack similar to the May 2021 (or would we say summer 2021) might be attempted and might be possible to have success.. Any jurisdiction can go on the attack.. and we cannot exempt the USA or even Texas in that regards.. but geographical diversification in terms of where mining is done, and even where mining machines might end up being made if mining machine manufacturing is attacked too.. beside making spare parts for the mining machines that are already in existence.
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January 14, 2022, 07:25:26 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

An opinion piece on CoinDesk
"Nayib Bukele Is Not the Bitcoin Hero We Need"
https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/01/14/nayib-bukele-is-not-the-bitcoin-hero-we-need/

TL;DR Installed Israeli spyware Pegasus on several regime opponents, mainly journalists.
Just like Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia (remember Jamal Khashoggi?) and other citizen-friendly governments.

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool
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January 14, 2022, 07:56:58 PM

An opinion piece on CoinDesk
"Nayib Bukele Is Not the Bitcoin Hero We Need"
https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/01/14/nayib-bukele-is-not-the-bitcoin-hero-we-need/

TL;DR Installed Israeli spyware Pegasus on several regime opponents, mainly journalists.
Just like Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia (remember Jamal Khashoggi?) and other citizen-friendly governments.

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool


I doubt it's made up.

Bukele being a self-centric autocrat might not fit our (I mean even MY) narration about bitcoin being the cure-all-fix-all tool it is, but it still is largely neutral - as good tools are supposed to be. They work in the hands of both saints and devils.

The simple fact that he's been able to pull off this significant, game-changing stunt on an almost individual whim could say a lot about the man's attitude and concern for dissenting opinions.

Disclaimer: What I say only comes from prejudice = pre+judice; that is, an opinion/judgement that comes from my personal history, things I happen to know or believe given my personal history. I've never been to El Salvador so I can't vouch for the sentiment there.
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January 14, 2022, 08:01:28 PM


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January 14, 2022, 08:03:45 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool

He's a demagogue and a wannabe dictator. If he wasn't so into Bitcoin he'd be derided here (if anyone even knew who he is) for his actions and policies, from firing Supreme Court judges to inflationary spending to COVID lockdowns. He's a populist and seems to be well liked in El Salvador. But I have little doubt that the spyware story is true.
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January 14, 2022, 08:32:57 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool

He's a demagogue and a wannabe dictator. If he wasn't so into Bitcoin he'd be derided here (if anyone even knew who he is) for his actions and policies, from firing Supreme Court judges to inflationary spending to COVID lockdowns. He's a populist and seems to be well liked in El Salvador. But I have little doubt that the spyware story is true.

It most probably is true, but I question the goals and motivation behind this investigation. Also, very suspicious anti-bitcoin, anti-Bukele movement showed up in El Salvador all of a sudden right before the legal tender bill. Luckily, it didn't grow to the scale of riots or civil unrest but was probably sponsored by some external anti-Bitcoin forces.  Cool
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January 14, 2022, 08:35:02 PM

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool

He's a demagogue and a wannabe dictator. If he wasn't so into Bitcoin he'd be derided here (if anyone even knew who he is) for his actions and policies, from firing Supreme Court judges to inflationary spending to COVID lockdowns. He's a populist and seems to be well liked in El Salvador. But I have little doubt that the spyware story is true.

It most probably is true, but I question the goals and motivation behind this investigation. Also, very suspicious anti-bitcoin, anti-Bukele movement showed up in El Salvador all of a sudden right before the legal tender bill. Luckily, it didn't grow to the scale of riots or civil unrest but was probably sponsored by some external anti-Bitcoin forces.  Cool

Proudhon? Grin
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January 14, 2022, 08:43:08 PM

I bet this was ordered to discredit Bukele and Bitcoin. When I see a word combination "non-profit organization" I read CIA (or some other three letter agency) between the lines. It's hard to believe average joe journalists can detect war spyware like Pegasus, identify the person behind it, locate all victims etc. Looks like a job for intelligence guys.  Cool

He's a demagogue and a wannabe dictator. If he wasn't so into Bitcoin he'd be derided here (if anyone even knew who he is) for his actions and policies, from firing Supreme Court judges to inflationary spending to COVID lockdowns. He's a populist and seems to be well liked in El Salvador. But I have little doubt that the spyware story is true.

It most probably is true, but I question the goals and motivation behind this investigation. Also, very suspicious anti-bitcoin, anti-Bukele movement showed up in El Salvador all of a sudden right before the legal tender bill. Luckily, it didn't grow to the scale of riots or civil unrest but was probably sponsored by some external anti-Bitcoin forces.  Cool

Proudhon? Grin

Bingo!  Grin
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