Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

You're contrarian indicator is here, buy buy buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's slump could be the start of a 'crypto winter' that sees prices crash, UBS says. Here are three reasons why.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-winter-crash-slump-interest-rates-regulation-ubs-2022-1

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

I consider myself a reluctant Maxi.  Or maybe a Maxi Lite.   And this is not because I love shitcoins.  In fact I hate the fact that we have to have all this noise.  But I think about other crypto projects the way i saw Satoshi consider them as Namecoin emerged etc.  Or in the same way that for a while nullc had a Monero address in his profile here.

The way the cypherpunks might...  with curiosity and an eye towards freedom, as in beer AND speech.

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether. 

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

DGAF = Don't Give A Fuck.


https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1483194959989719059
https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1482975157023035396

[El duderino_]

[Paashaas]

Based on Phil_S's notorious chart, I've made three basic scenarios for the next 4 years. (I'm not a PS or chart expert, so if anyone can make better charts, feel free to do it.)

I tried to make a functional prediction based on previous data. The big question is will we face a deviation below the low orange line in the next 4 years. IMO, this may happen for 2 reasons: severe shorting manipulation and adoption levels worldwide above 75%. I highly doubt that the manipulations can hold the price that long and that the 75% saturation point could be reached without breaking 100K.  

So, here are the variants. The blue one is mildly bullish and I find it highly probable to happen. The green is very bullish, but a bit less probable than the blue one. And finally, the pink scenario I find extremely unlikely to happen. It just shows that even in a series of black swan events, Bitcoin will touch 100K until the end of 2025. There might be various modifications of any of the plans, including the pink one: If 100K is delayed so much, only another black swan event can prevent a top above 200K in 2025.

Shit needs to hit the fan big time if it goes to sub $10k, massive support lines wil be broken because of it.

It's unlikely it will happen.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[Torque]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

....

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether.  

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

[Tash]

[...]

Then he publicly lied (well, or you interpret the facts by publishing unverified information). I mean, coinbase has been focused on working with alternative coins since its inception, not to mention the fact that at the initial stage of development Coinbase was called Bitbank.

Just because you say that doesn't make it true. That's a lie. They were not, and they launched with only bitcoin on their broker platform. Some of us that were around then know that, because we were there.

Stop spreading misinformation.

btc-e started trading junk on 16/08/11    Start trading in pairs IXC / BTC, IXC / USD, I0C/BTC two years before coinbase was operational, with Bitcoin only

Feb 3, 2011 https://web.archive.org/web/20110203031942/https://www.mtgox.com/ First exchange Bitcoin
May 17, 2011 https://web.archive.org/web/20110517052225/http://coinbase.com/  No trade only Bitcoin name
Jul 20, 2011 https://web.archive.org/web/20110720154216/https://bitmarket.eu/
Jul 26, 2011 https://web.archive.org/web/20110726120745/http://btc-e.com/
Jan 14, 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120114174253/https://www.vircurex.com/ (lots of shitcoins from the get go)
Jan 20, 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120120102836/https://www.bitstamp.net/
Aug 5, 2013 https://web.archive.org/web/20130805091440/https://coinbase.com/ Seems first trades

Namecoin Launched: Apr 19, 2011
iXcoin   Launched: May 7, 2011
Devcoin Launched: Jul 22, 2011
I0coin Launched: August 15, 2011

[El duderino_]

Btw nothing to see

It’s just a correction in a correction…

#ThisTimeIsDiffrent

[serveria.com]

Good one, but would be more appropriate to place an image of a gorgeous naked woman under the 100k party sign...  

P.S. Brain optional 

[sirazimuth]

..... place an image of a gorgeous naked woman under the 100k party sign...  

P.S. Brain optional  

Hmmm....well I might stay tuned in for the next couple of pages....

(better go get a six pack also)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

I agree that the Tether fud is, in general, fairly silly.

But I do want to say.. I am also not entirely comfortable with some of the trends I see happening with Tether.

There are lot's of two faced "Bitcoin Maxis" not only cozying up with Tether, but are actually using it via Ethereum at the same time of lambasting Vitalic and all the people on twatter with x.eth after their name.

I see a lot of nuance here.  For example, I think I like the idea of using Blockstream's tether on their sidechain more than Eth for structural/scaling reasons.  But I am still somewhat bothered by the tension between using Tether in place of Bitcoin...  by so many people who have preached the "BITCOIN ONLY" gospel from the beginning.

....

But something just seems wrong about these idealists embracing Tether.  

It bugs me.  But I have not worked through all of it yet, I guess...

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg?t=136

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

As you guys are worried for the price, I am here to tell you that price is the least interesting metric to assess the healy of our mutual orange friend.

For example, which measure the security of the Bitcoin network, is yet another time at ATH.



China mining Ban, Kashakistan riots, anything can stop the miner's weapon race.

The impressive pace of network hashrate will take us to another gigantic difficulty adjustment next Friday, when the difficult will readjust.

The adjustment will be a gargantuan one:

Latest Block:   719212  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.1272%  (1517 / 1390.12 expected, 126.88 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26456677151315 and 26605209206773
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5541% and +9.1636%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 8:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 4:34 AM  (in 3d 4h 12m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:18 AM  (in 3d 5h 55m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 53m 51s and 12d 21h 37m 9s

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

What does it mean exactly?

Can you remember my thread on Alps Blockchain? A small Italian mining company using hydropower to mine bitcon:

ALPS BLOCKCHAIN: mining in Italy from 100% renewable energy

There was a picture of a mining rack with more or less 150 miners on it:

 

	Fig. 5. The largest ALPS Blockchain plant is located in Valstagna (VI).

I called this Rack "Valstagna Window", after the name of the Central where it is located.

This means that, if I got my computations right, the next difficult adjustment has been caused by a gigantic increase in the HAshrate, caused by a rise in the computing power roughly equivalent to 900 of those racks.
900.
In two weeks
And in the future, probably, every two weeks.

Up only

[JimboToronto]

Haven't seen this much snow in one dump for a few years now.

Hope you're in Mexico, JimboToronto!

Nope, right here in the Big Smoke. We would have been in Mexico by now if Omicron hadn't screwed up air travel.

Luckily we knew it was coming and got salt down before it started. Got our grocery shopping done yesterday. Woke up this morning, sat down at the Hammond and played some snow songs. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

Remember the "Mel Lastman" snowfall in 1999? That was a snowfall, twice as deep as this.

We basically treated today as a snow holiday and took an extended siesta this afternoon and then my wife made a big pot of traditional Mexican hot ponche which I spiked with 12-year-old Demerara rum. Warmed us right up. Now we're thawing some well-marbled flatirons. Yum.

We're waiting to see which thaws first, Omicron travel or our lake in Muskoka. We love life downtown but we also need country living.

Life is good.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation