Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

[1715021836]

1715021836

[1715021836]

1715021836

[1715021836]

1715021836

[1715021836]

1715021836

[JayJuanGee]

When stock market crash so does Bitcoin price.

I had a problem understanding this at first, but seems to be an unfortunate reality to some degree, perhaps related to previous recent posts.

Zooming out might help ur lil selfie to understand the situation a wee bit MOAR better - even if there seems to be a lot of short-term correlations.... but hey, there are lot of people who believe that bitcoin is correlated to the stock market and other seemingly quasi-random macro-economic factors, and many of these correlation spotting peeps are likely missing out being on the beneficiary side of the greatest wealth transfer in history..

Hopefully you, modrobert,  are not one of those missing out peeps (either by underpreparing for UPpity or waiting for down or some other potentially personally prejudicing tactic that causes you to under appreciate the value of bitcoin) - even if your brain is coming off as a wee bit muddled at the moment... hahahahahahaha  #nohomo

I wasn't thinking about current price specifically, rather about future stock market crash(es) to come, and the relationship with Bitcoin. My reasoning was flawed that somehow Bitcoin would be unaffected, or even turn upwards during crashes, but if people insist in buying BTC indirectly through stock market, then it will be correlated.

Surely, I am not going to argue that short-term correlation does not exist, but I doubt that it is very relevant in terms of the BIGGER picture issues.

You also likely realize that there are some 24/7 trading dynamics in bitcoin, and also financial instruments that are likely used to attempt to manipulate the fuck out of the 14-year-olds who happen to be in the market trading on 100x margin.. whether they are in and out of shitcoins, or playing bitcoin exclusively there are a lot of ways to manipulate - including short term liquidity crisis situations, for example the March 2020 situation.

Also, if there are ways to attempt to manipulate the bitcoin market, there are a lot of traditional financial status quo who are likely willing to lose a lot in terms of fiat, if they can get their way in bitcoin.. and they may even have OTC channels to attempt to achieve those objectives.. dump on spot market, buy on OTC and using various financial instruments too.. ..

I don't know how much they can get away with before they end up getting reckt, but it seems that there are some powers in the bitcoin dynamics that do not exist in other markets including the ability to demand immediate possession that could also contribute to some of these BIG players to get reckt as fuck once they put enough capital on the line that causes incentives for various whales and/or bitcoin retail to take advantage of such UPpity momentum when it happens and cause them to get liquidated right when they thought things were going well (in their favor).

Sure, none of us can really know for sure some of the behind the scene dynamics, but I have seen quite a few reckening events in the past, and sure, even if some of the BIG players have more tools that they can use to try to naked short bitcoin, it still seems possible that they could end up on the wrong side of those BIG ASS manipulation attempts... we will see.. we will see.. and then at that point let's see how the supposed correlation is looking.

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

Yes.  I will do it.

Price is going down...    

because more sellers than buyers

[OutOfMemory]

Looks like testing support levels again...

[modrobert]

When stock market crash so does Bitcoin price.

I had a problem understanding this at first, but seems to be an unfortunate reality to some degree, perhaps related to previous recent posts.

Zooming out might help ur lil selfie to understand the situation a wee bit MOAR better - even if there seems to be a lot of short-term correlations.... but hey, there are lot of people who believe that bitcoin is correlated to the stock market and other seemingly quasi-random macro-economic factors, and many of these correlation spotting peeps are likely missing out being on the beneficiary side of the greatest wealth transfer in history..

Hopefully you, modrobert,  are not one of those missing out peeps (either by underpreparing for UPpity or waiting for down or some other potentially personally prejudicing tactic that causes you to under appreciate the value of bitcoin) - even if your brain is coming off as a wee bit muddled at the moment... hahahahahahaha  #nohomo

I wasn't thinking about current price specifically, rather about future stock market crash(es) to come, and the relationship with Bitcoin. My reasoning was flawed that somehow Bitcoin would be unaffected, or even turn upwards during crashes, but if people insist in buying BTC indirectly through stock market, then it will be correlated.

Surely, I am not going to argue that short-term correlation does not exist, but I doubt that it is very relevant in terms of the BIGGER picture issues.

You also likely realize that there are some 24/7 trading dynamics in bitcoin, and also financial instruments that are likely used to attempt to manipulate the fuck out of the 14-year-olds who happen to be in the market trading on 100x margin.. whether they are in and out of shitcoins, or playing bitcoin exclusively there are a lot of ways to manipulate - including short term liquidity crisis situations, for example the March 2020 situation.

Also, if there are ways to attempt to manipulate the bitcoin market, there are a lot of traditional financial status quo who are likely willing to lose a lot in terms of fiat, if they can get their way in bitcoin.. and they may even have OTC channels to attempt to achieve those objectives.. dump on spot market, buy on OTC and using various financial instruments too.. ..

I don't know how much they can get away with before they end up getting reckt, but it seems that there are some powers in the bitcoin dynamics that do not exist in other markets including the ability to demand immediate possession that could also contribute to some of these BIG players to get reckt as fuck once they put enough capital on the line that causes incentives for various whales and/or bitcoin retail to take advantage of such UPpity momentum when it happens and cause them to get liquidated right when they thought things were going well (in their favor).

Sure, none of us can really know for sure some of the behind the scene dynamics, but I have seen quite a few reckening events in the past, and sure, even if some of the BIG players have more tools that they can use to try to naked short bitcoin, it still seems possible that they could end up on the wrong side of those BIG ASS manipulation attempts... we will see.. we will see.. and then at that point let's see how the supposed correlation is looking.

Thanks for the explanation, makes sense that the effects would be short-term. I'm clearly missing some of the factors involved

[somac.]

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

Bitcoin market is filled with a bunch of chicken shits.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Can someone please explain to me what the actual fuck is going on with the price action today?

Good grief.

I wish I could Bob... King Daddy does what King Daddy wants, and he DGAF...

Price action is currently boring AF, almost a non-action, for sure. Not really worried or upset about it, as real life keeps me VERY busy lately -- can barely keep up with WO.

I believe and expect price UPpity to resume sometime this year. I prefer the organic, slow, ant-like UPpity, rather than an Elon-style, rusty-pipe-length green dildo mega pump. Slow and steady up, until it gets deep into 6-digit territory. That would be a kind of "end-of-the-road" level for many WOers, I'm sure, but then again, that journey never really ends, does it? In any case, 6 digits would be the "fuck you" trigger point for many HoDLers, as 5 digits were in your case, and rightly so! You deserve all the goodness you are getting out of corn. It will come a little later for the rest of us, but it WILL come.

HoDL.

[El duderino_]

May the Ant survive this time

Why….

This time is different.

Merited both!

Not yet different

Maybe the force comes with the next Ant 

[tertius993]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

Probably by taking out another loan. That is the difference between BTC and FIAT. It makes sense to just keep borrowing more FIAT to pay off the previous debt as it continues to devalue over time. Try doing that with BTC and see where that gets you!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Made me laugh, but also there are always gonna be haters …. People who are emotionally involved etc

Don’t mind them…

I still like PlanB 

[BitcoinBunny]

I don't believe there is a magic cure for inflation right now.

Everyone will want /NEED a pay increase. You can't just interest rate hike that away in the next few months or even years.
The Russia Ukraine thing is a major problem for Europe and the UK where we get a majority of our gas (and thus electricity also!) from no matter how many fucking windmills you install. If the wind doesn't blow you need gas. See UK electricity mix right now. Majority still gas. You can cut people off from the gas for heating and demand them to get a heat pump (current long term proposal) all you like. The demand for gas via electricity will only increase! Not decrease.




If you look back over last 48 hours the demand for gas vs renewables looks even worse.




I suspect BTC will rally like mental in spring once people realise what inflation really means and when we see small interest hikes have not made a difference.

I just don't think people haven't woken up yet and almost all price action we have seen from retail so far has always been the speculation side / NOT the keep assets safe side.


It's also quite telling what is happening with the crypto top 10 and USD Coin overtaking the shitcoins so easily recently.

And why? Because anything other than Bitcoin IS a fucking shitcoin.

[ivomm]

Yep, the price movement is boring AF in the last 2 months. To stay 30K below the ATH is quite annoying. This is something the new generation of hodlers is hard to get used to. Most, if not all new commers who bought in the 40-69K range have sold on a loss, according to the on-chain analysis by glassnode. Before glassnode was a thing, we only wondered if the hodlers sell that low or there actually exist individuals that sold on a loss. Now it is almost "proven" that many sell on a loss, although it is not competely certain that the movement of bitcoins always means a trade. It is however the only indicator that gives good enough approximation. For the n00bs 2 months of bear market is the end of Bitcoin. They lack the experience and hardened character to hodl through this period. It seems that the first lesson in 2021 from 65K to 30K wasn't learned and the same mistake was made later from 69K to 40K. So, with all short term "hodlers" being completely eliminated and all actual hodlers refusing to sell, this bear run should terminate soon.

On a personal level, I must admit that I didn't do well in the last year. As a relatively new hodler with average buying price 2.5K per coin (thanks to the gpu mining mostly), I was tempted to sell 60% of my stash for average price of 28K for a beach villa, job retirement and mining equipment. However the covid restrictions and other RL accidents prevented me from realising any of these goals. I could not afford to risk and sell more at 60K, so I've missed both tops, unfortunately. So, I've decided to rebuy back the last sold coins on the same price, making the sold part 39% of my stash. The remaining fiat is equivalent to my salary until I retire after 15+ years, so I could spend some of it if the price falls to my average sold level to rebuy more coins back. All this is hard to plan and fulfil, because of emotions, RL issues, etc... Hopefully, I'll manage to handle it well and not sell too much, not to mention sell most of it. God forbid! I don't want to give the false impression that I have tons of coins. Let's say just that I have no theoretical chance of becoming a fish if I DCA until I retire. This makes me very sad, but I'm comforting myself that I have enough to cover my basic needs.  It's just that in my country the expenses and real estate is much cheaper than the rest of the world, at least for now. Another indicator is that my virtual net worth puts me in the list of 900 richest peeps in my country, according to bank deposit stats. Not bad, considering that before Bitcoin, I had no plans of investments and relied only on my salary. The problem is that the medical care is completely missing, which makes me think of moving to another country. Any suggestions - with a good infrastructure, warm climate, food delivery, internet, etc.? Spain, Greece, France, Antigua...?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

[ivomm]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

I started as a small octopus in 2017, grew to medium by 2020, and shrank again to small in 2021.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

...no theoretical chance of becoming a fish...

[...]

Can someone point me to the HoDLers' Marine Scale? Just to see where I stand. Thx.

I started as a small octopus in 2017, grew to medium by 2020, and shrank again to small in 2021.

Thanks for that.

IMHO, most shrimps and ALL of the other species below dolphins will be "fuck-you" rich in 5-10 years from now (dolphins and above are already there now).

Of course, it all depends on what "fuck-you" rich means to each one of us -- I've given a conservative prediction. It could be sooner... Perhaps, perhaps...