Made me laugh, but also there are always gonna be haters …. People who are emotionally involved etc
Don’t mind them…
I still like PlanB
I can appreciate that planB's stock to flow model could see the BTC drop quite a ways and still be valid, including dropping at or below the 200-week moving average, which is currently $19,129.
I would question any drops that are sustainably below the 200-week moving average for more than a couple of weeks in terms of whether some kind of tweak to the model might be different.
Geez, dropping $40k from here would put BTC prices in the $1k to $3k range, and surely there would be considerable issues and concerns with bitcoin and even such stock to flow model if such a drop were to occur.. fuck.. even dropping below $15k for any kind of meaningful time (a few days) would really cause some of us (including yours truly) concerns about something like the stock to flow model.. so surely, after such a fall, if it were to occur, the model might still be valid upon inputting some serious tweaks.
Don't get me wrong. Even though I am talking about some of these low BTC price arenas per the prompt of the Crypto_Ed_NL tweet (which I think he is a bit off his rocker in the exaggeration of wrong), I still believe that we are in a bull market and would have difficulties going below the 104-week moving average (which is at about $31k) for any meaningful time of more than a couple of weeks - kind of a quite bearish case scenario of how much froth purgening needs to be done (probably more from shitcoins and various related projects rather than from bitcoin itself.. but whereever there is froth, there can be incentives for purging and shaking of the weak hands)..
Yep, the price movement is boring AF in the last 2 months. To stay 30K below the ATH is quite annoying. This is something the new generation of hodlers is hard to get used to. Most, if not all new commers who bought in the 40-69K range have sold on a loss, according to the on-chain analysis by glassnode. Before glassnode was a thing, we only wondered if the hodlers sell that low or there actually exist individuals that sold on a loss. Now it is almost "proven" that many sell on a loss, although it is not competely certain that the movement of bitcoins always means a trade. It is however the only indicator that gives good enough approximation. For the n00bs 2 months of bear market is the end of Bitcoin. They lack the experience and hardened character to hodl through this period. It seems that the first lesson in 2021 from 65K to 30K wasn't learned and the same mistake was made later from 69K to 40K. So, with all short term "hodlers" being completely eliminated and all actual hodlers refusing to sell, this bear run should terminate soon.
On a personal level, I must admit that I didn't do well in the last year. As a relatively new hodler with average buying price 2.5K per coin (thanks to the gpu mining mostly), I was tempted to sell 60% of my stash for average price of 28K for a beach villa, job retirement and mining equipment. However the covid restrictions and other RL accidents prevented me from realising any of these goals. I could not afford to risk and sell more at 60K, so I've missed both tops, unfortunately. So, I've decided to rebuy back the last sold coins on the same price, making the sold part 39% of my stash. The remaining fiat is equivalent to my salary until I retire after 15+ years, so I could spend some of it if the price falls to my average sold level to rebuy more coins back. All this is hard to plan and fulfil, because of emotions, RL issues, etc... Hopefully, I'll manage to handle it well and not sell too much, not to mention sell most of it. God forbid! I don't want to give the false impression that I have tons of coins. Let's say just that I have no theoretical chance of becoming a fish if I DCA until I retire. This makes me very sad, but I'm comforting myself that I have enough to cover my basic needs. It's just that in my country the expenses and real estate is much cheaper than the rest of the world, at least for now. Another indicator is that my virtual net worth puts me in the list of 900 richest peeps in my country, according to bank deposit stats. Not bad, considering that before Bitcoin, I had no plans of investments and relied only on my salary. The problem is that the medical care is completely missing, which makes me think of moving to another country. Any suggestions - with a good infrastructure, warm climate, food delivery, internet, etc.? Spain, Greece, France, Antigua...?
Gotta question your judgement when you had been considering that selling 60% of your stash would have even had been a good idea while BTC prices were moving through (above and beyond) it's 2017 ATH and through another zone.
Yeah, of course, we never really know what is going to happen, but just seems like playing with too much stash and trying to transition into fuck you status before you are even close enough to being there.. and part of that is to be transitioning into either holding the vast majority of your acquired wealth in fiat or property - if you had succeeded in accomplishing your goal of cashing out 60% of your stash at $28k.
Of course, each of us has to decide how to manage our wealth based on our own circumstances, but you seem to be no stranger to bitcoin's upside potential, so it boggles my mind why you so frequently seem to have such a high time preference in your own ways to plan your BTC management.... and yeah, maybe it just comes down to wanting to lock in a fuck you status and your belief that maintaining 40% of your BTC stash would be sufficient enough.. which sure, might end up playing out to your favor.. but surely seems to show a lack of conviction of HODLing larger amounts of value in BTC and just cashing out of BTC in smaller amounts at later dates.. lack of confidence in BTC no?
To me, it sounds like you should be attempting to accomplish something closer to what AlcoHoDL seems to be striving for, which seems to be largely attempting to wait out whatever happens to be the BTC process whether this cycle (seeming a stretch) or perhaps another cycle (which seems quite likely) and to thereafter have some pretty decent odds that after another cycle (if it takes that long) there would be decent stability of BTC prices in the supra 6 digits... and yeah of course, nothing is guaranteed.. which likely causes several of us HODLers anxiety in terms of wanting to make sure that we lock in some of our profits.. which was something that LFC did, but surely with only 25% of his stash.. which surely seems more reasonable that cashing out 60%, even if we might concede that LFC likely had more BTC to work with, but he has been in BTC longer than you too.. and sure sometimes it is a combination of amount of BTC and letting some of the time play out.. even if it might take an additional cycle...
should I get out of lecturing mode? Yeah, I know you are weighing these matters for yourself and your own circumstances, but still even you appreciate that the contemplation of selling 60% of your stash seems a wee bit short-sighted and maybe even too much of a high time preference..
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