Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months, a.k.a. short term hodlers. Hence these guys alone are selling. Poor weak hands, they must be screaming like little girls while selling. I just wonder whether there is a single long term hodler to sell in panic now that we are 30K below the ATH 2 months ago? Probably none. And another thing. Is there a single daily trader, who can boast that he is in profit in the last year? Probably none. At least the stats show only liquidations and endless series of stop losses. It sucks to be a trader.  

But where are they getting the coins? In the move from May to Nov most of the buyers were LTH with little selling history. And there is buying by the LTH again at these levels.

The term Short Term Hodlers (STH) combines the daily traders and new wanna-be hodlers who bought in the range 40K-60K. These were coins from Long Term Holders (LTH) who always sell on the way up, and not so much on the way down. Humans are predictable, so when a new investor sees his profit erased in the blink of an eye, he just can't help and sell on the break even in the best case. Glassnode stats clearly show that the movement of old coins itensified during the 2 bull runs in 2021 and went to 0% during the 2 dumps. All these bear wet dreams of cheap coins will soon die in ashes, because without the aid of old coins dumped on the market the crashes will be insignificant like the current one.

This is quite different from the bear market in 2018, when the old coins flooded the market during the run to 20K and the recovery to 12K. Now, if we assume that the current situation is a big bear manipulation, then these must be new players, completely ignorant regarding Bitcoin specifics. They can't bring the price down simply by selling each time there is a small pump, like with stonks. They need a help from the old coins, which could be lured only above 60K. But then they might be surprised again by the lack of such event, since the hodlers are waiting for 100K and fewer will sell at 60K than in 2021. So it is a win-win for the bulls even mid-term, not to mention long term.

This is what I'm talking about, but being that during the move up from the 30k mid last year we didn't get much LTH selling. How have the STH so many coins to sell at the moment?

It seems like we should be at or near the bottom, going off the supply metrics, but price still going lower. Futures must be playing a part by adding artificial selling supply.

I agree with your mid-term long-term, but if we get back down to last years lows, I'll be pretty shocked especially with no LTH selling.

[somac.]

Explanation

WTF is this shit ?

Enough daily fake outs 

Same shit that was happening in the high 40s a few weeks ago.

What surprises me about this dip is that apparently there was very little new retail that bought from May to Nov last year. That move was made by LTH, and vast majority of that was not sold, and infact they LTH are buying again. So who is doing the selling to keep dropping the price, has spot buying/selling been made completely redundant now and these moves are purely from the futures markets?

Had to look up LTH.....  and that is be called yours truly.. (trying to keep the secret going somewhat, It's long term holders)......even though I am ONLY buying modestly... .,. and ONLY upon the price going down each $1k... been buying since around $59k  (maybe even $60k.. can't remember-- it was so long ago).. then sold a few when we bounced from $41k back up to $52k-ish.. and then back to buying again.. down to $39k.. just had one more buy order triggered.... Next comes $38k, then $37k, then $36k.. etc etc... I suppose that all of those count, even though not really considered to be a lot.., at least relatively speaking.. even though it has b een adding up to a higher BTC balance than I used to have at these prices previously... When were we here?  Around early August on the way back up from $28,800, no? and also briefly touched upon these $39ks in mid-September too, no? 

Hate to reward the bears with the BTC price going down.. but what can any of us do, except wait for the momentum to change back to UPpity.. at some point.. hopefully its coming.  Hate to have some dweeb like Biodom saying I told you so... hahahahahaha.. or worse yet Raja_MBZ or proudhon or even billynocoiner... there are gradations, of course... and surely prefer UPpity and punishing the bears as much as possible.. but if there is froth needing to be purged.. so be it.. who are we (or should I say "I") to say?


Gonna be crying all day long.. while buying every $1k that the price goes down, until running out of money.. crying the whole time...

 

I hear ya.

[rdbase]

Hang on a minute, is bitcoin dead?
Thought I'd drop by just to check.
Ah no, just a fire sale - get 'em while they're cheap. Last chance.
#haiku fail

The dump is caused by the creation of this project to meld cryptocurrency and reality into one..
Welcome to Crypto Land!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x26fUL_YB14

Somebody must of forwarded this project to Powell and he said "This is what crypto is all about!? Fuck NO!"

Liked watching these two youtubers for how they rip into it. Nicknaming it Epstein island is about right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpeeoHrd874
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZzCyTRBfHo

[somac.]

Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.

it's still locked...until in range 

[Biodom]

@jjg...who is the bigger dweeb here than the "writer"?

As a small solace, these developments hurt my pocket just the same, but I cannot not see what I foresee...but, right now, the thought is...it will pass.

[JayJuanGee]

Not me.

lets get in the mood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2ku1A5Ox8U

Seems like the above song (Blame it on MTGOX - I could have had it all) is the same author of the proudhon song;..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

I listened to both of them.. very similar... maybe proudhon can be of some use (utility) and clarify authorship...

Hang on a minute, is bitcoin dead?
Thought I'd drop by just to check.
Ah no, just a fire sale - get 'em while they're cheap. Last chance.

#haiku fail

How cheap is cheap?

I heard this before..then sometimes in those scenarios, the coins just keep getting cheaper, cheaper and cheaper..   not exactly a happy place..at least during the time that it is going down.. and not seeming to reverse.. once it reverses, then we can all say how "cool, calm and collected" we were.. blah blah blah..

Still crying.. wake me up when it's over..   not happy..  

[fr4nkthetank]

I'm just going to leave this here, might as well feed the bears....
(superbowl 2000)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXHrlm5Nk5w
(Superbowl 2022, est +-160BTC/30sec spot)
-> FTX (fuck that xchange) : 135 million naming rights for some stadium.  Superbowl ad spot
-> petscrypto.com : 700million naming rights for some stadium.  20 million ad campaign + superbowl ad spot
“There’s a lot of people saying crypto is a fad, just the way they said the internet was a fad,” (says Steven Kalifowitz, the company’s chief marketing officer crypto.com)
I couldnt make this up even if i was creative enough to do it.  

edit: the moral of the story is bitcoin is like the internet, not a fad.  those companies on the other hand...

[JayJuanGee]

Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.

Personally, I do not get too many thrills in talking about down...

So frequently I prefer to believe that the down is going to end any minute... even though sometimes I realize that it is not.. and for sure, the trend is your friend, until it is not.....

@jjg...who is the bigger dweeb here than the "writer"?

As a small solace, these developments hurt my pocket just the same, but I cannot not see what I foresee...but, right now, the thought is...it will pass.

Hahahahaha - I think that you are a pretty big dweeb, but sure it could be true that I am not completely excluded from the dweeb club.

We know that you weren't willing to bet on your supposed vision (or do we call it a nonvision - just throwing shit out there and see if something might stick?), and maybe you are going to be feeling more invigorated now to formulate some kind of a bet about the staying in $30k to $65k for the upcoming year and the supposed 1% chance of getting above $200k within the year (or if you might have adjusted your timeline). 

There might have been more to what you were saying, even though the above points were the last ones that I recall that you made somewhat specifically... 

Also, I have not changed any of my numbers from December 16 yet.. so I am not really sure if events of the past several weeks (or even month), should create some kind of change in the dynamics in order to cause me to need to revisit any of those numbers... maybe ONLY slight tweaks to the numbers, perhaps?  I would have to think about the matter.. if I am going to change the numbers or even  the expected timeline.

[philipma1957]

my $50 A DAY BUY was going to end on my birthday next week

 was keeping it for 2 months.  with the continued drop I will keep it for 3 months.

Very happy with my sale of $17000 worth of  between 61-67k.

Taxes paid and money in hand for cheap coins.  Dip tastes better at 38k than 42k

Maybe we go to 29k and I grab back all of the 17k sold between 61-67k price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

my $50 A DAY BUY was going to end on my birthday next week

 was keeping it for 2 months.  with the continued drop I will keep it for 3 months.

Very happy with my sale of $17000 worth of  between 61-67k.

Taxes paid and money in hand for cheap coins.  Dip tastes better at 38k than 42k

Maybe we go to 29k and I grab back all of the 17k sold between 61-67k price.

Personally, it seems to me that you should keep your $50 per day until you reach fuck you status or close to fuck you status.

#justsaying.

It's only $350 per week, and you are an old geezer who should be trying to get to retirement.





You will thank me later... or perhaps not.

[jojo69]

What an utter nonsense.  
Post your crap elsewhere, please.

https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Letter-Re.-Feb-1-Emails-011122.pdf

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

my $50 A DAY BUY was going to end on my birthday next week

 was keeping it for 2 months.  with the continued drop I will keep it for 3 months.

Very happy with my sale of $17000 worth of  between 61-67k.

Taxes paid and money in hand for cheap coins.  Dip tastes better at 38k than 42k

Maybe we go to 29k and I grab back all of the 17k sold between 61-67k price.

Personally, it seems to me that you should keep your $50 per day until you reach fuck you status or close to fuck you status.

#justsaying.

It's only $350 per week, and you are an old geezer who should be trying to get to retirement.





You will thank me later... or perhaps not.

Yeah may be best thing to do.

[Richy_T]

Come on Bitcoin. I'm never going to be able to lie on a bed wearing sunglasses covered in $100 bills and holding a gun at this rate...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Come on Bitcoin. I'm never going to be able to lie on a bed wearing sunglasses covered in $100 bills and holding a gun at this rate...

[Phil_S]

Laser eyes jinxed it.