Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

[cygan]

all-in

[tertius993]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

Probably by taking out another loan. That is the difference between BTC and FIAT. It makes sense to just keep borrowing more FIAT to pay off the previous debt as it continues to devalue over time. Try doing that with BTC and see where that gets you!

My point was not about how they would pay it back, merely that it needed to be accounted for when considering the valuation of MicroStrategy.

[somac.]

It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months

Curious. How are you discerning this?

Glassnode stats. They also publish weekly analysis including this indicator. They track each address movement with the exact datestamp. So, since any purchase/sell is related to such a movement, they can tell if it is old or new coins.

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-03-2022/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=woc_03_2022

I am somewhat dubious about the Glassnode conclusions:

1. they assume that every transaction is associated with a buy/sell action - clearly this is not true
2. they ignore exchange holdings when calculating LTH vs STH
3. they (obviously) cannot see the specifics of exchange buys and sells (as they are off-chain);
4. exchange volumes are highly likely to include the same coins changing hands multiple times - its not a one buy and then move off exchange type activity

Accordingly while I think it is very interesting it is easy to read too much into it.

Well yes, but your not looking for perfect accuracy you're looking for consistency in the data over long time frames. This is what gives it relevance, and the chart posted matches up nicely with their other data saying retail did not move in strongly on the increase to 69k and LTHs did not unload coins in great numbers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

This looks like a double bottom to me, although technically it is several %'s lower than the last. So, just in case, I've bought the dip. And if we go lower, I will buy in the same manner, no matter how deep this bear market turns out to be. Everyone that had laser eyes on twitter now speaks of 20K, even 10K. What I see is that this massive 2 month coordinated dump achieved onlly 38K-39K bottom. It seems that it loses steam and soon there will be a rebound. Let's recall that in March 2019, we had a bottom 3.8K, and look where we are now - the mother of all crashes to 38K? Wow, that is sooo scary, I've almost panic sold ... my spare fiat.  

[Febo]

13 years ago today.



https://twitter.com/halfin/status/1136749815

[OutOfMemory]

Is the market bled out yet?
Many "want" $30k, we're still $8k above that.
It doesn't look like a real "buyers capitulation" yet (like 2019) and the daily isn't closed yet, too.
There's still room for downity, but after that this short bear market should be done.

Fuck derivatives, by the way!

[somac.]

Is the market bled out yet?
Many "want" $30k, we're still $8k above that.
It doesn't look like a real "buyers capitulation" yet (like 2019) and the daily isn't closed yet, too.
There's still room for downity, but after that this short bear market should be done.

Fuck derivatives, by the way!

Well, 8k fall ain't too difficult, but it feels like we are near a bottom and same for traditional markets.

Might have to stop looking at the price for a while though, maybe that bottom willl come in then.

[BTCaesar]

WTF is happening?

[El duderino_]

WTF is happening?

Pleas tell us ….

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YourMother]

At this moment BTC is not even 2x since the all time high of 2017

[somac.]

At this moment BTC is not even 2x since the all time high of 2017

But its 10 times higher than its lows after that. DCA as long as you have an income and everything is fine.

[d_eddie]

Hang on a minute, is bitcoin dead?
Thought I'd drop by just to check.
Ah no, just a fire sale - get 'em while they're cheap. Last chance.

#haiku fail

I just come from the funeral. BTC didn't show up, the coffin was empty.
#btFd

Funeral of the corn
Surprise! The coffin's empty
OutOfMemory knows.



#haiku

[d_eddie]

Well, the events described in this post happened. There was a short/long squeeze on the market and a further drop in prices below significant support levels:

Derivative markets contributed to the fall, namely option expiration, increased open interest, increased use leverage by short traders, etc.

Next option expiry will hurt.

I just hope that when the uppity resumes, it will be fast and wild enough to reck some of these paper dealers. Eventually, they will need some physical corn to cover. My wish for them is that they have to scramble and marginally buy it at 200k+ apiece.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

[sirazimuth]

https://youtu.be/C11MzbEcHlw

RIP dude.

[proudhon]

Well, the events described in this post happened. There was a short/long squeeze on the market and a further drop in prices below significant support levels:

Derivative markets contributed to the fall, namely option expiration, increased open interest, increased use leverage by short traders, etc.

Next option expiry will hurt.

I just hope that when the uppity resumes, it will be fast and wild enough to reck some of these paper dealers. Eventually, they will need some physical corn to cover. My wish for them is that they have to scramble and marginally buy it at 200k+ apiece.

And it is guaranteed to remain nothing more than a wish. Bitcoin won't go above $45k at any point in 2022. Nor will it in 2023, 2024, 2025, and beyond. Macroeconomic winds have finally caught up to the mania. Nothing about bitcoin is special enough to overcome the headwinds of the next decade of economic policy. Before the next halving we will see prices below $10k.