Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

"Hedge against inflation", "Muh institutions" while the shitcoin can't even trade at 2x over the previous all time high of fucking 2017 lol (reminder that we are in 2022)

Correction: If you count in the inflation from 2017-2022, you'll realize that this shitcoin is way closer to the $20k top from 2017 with the current price

The ones that invested long-term in BTC at the run to $20k in 2017 are barely in profit right now. Digital asset that performed like absolute dogshit (and not talking about the dogshits that outperformed it by 1000x)

What about those who invested when it was in the 3000s after the fall from 2017. What's their profit?

Or maybe those who DCA in the last 4 years?

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2018-01-22&sda=4_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=1000&c=false

Shitty returns those ones right? Bitcoin is fucking ded people, it's ded.

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[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

…..

Saying it's nonsense doesn't make it so, disprove the claims or get the fuck out of our thread.

As a general rule, it’s the job of the person who makes the claims to prove them true.
Not the job of the person who calls the claims nonsense to disprove them.
I can’t disprove the claim there’s an almighty invisible sky fairy living in the heavens.
But I still call the claim nonsense anyway.

Eh, no. He provided links to his sources, sources that can not immediately be discarded as crackpots.
If bananaunana, whoever that little prick is, claims that it's nonsense he will have to prove that by, for example, find a source that debunks Marcuses sources.

I did it. At least 5-6 his last posts I fact-checked were utter crap. All made up by *cough* anti-v *cough*. Also links to proof were provided. It's not enough? 

No actually, old claims being wrong doesn't automatically mean that new claims are.

[JayJuanGee]

I bought a little early today at ~$38,500.  Will HODL.

I hope I can summon the discipline to buy @DCA as JJG always suggests.

Based on the Stonk Market, I hope it's not going "to be one of those weekends"..

From what I understand of your situation, I am not sure if DCA'ing would be the correct term because of course, you have already said that you had been shaving off pretty decently sized profits on the way up, so in that sense you are trying to figure out when to buy back and perhaps how much to buy back.  Sure, it could be that you are considering spreading out your buying back over a period of time in order that you might be able to take advantage of ongoing BTC dips, to the extent that they continue... so of course, each of us are engaging in our own particular hybrids.

Another way that you could potentially be employing a kind of DCA strategy would be if you had come across some extra cashflow, and you are considering the difference between merely lump sum investing with that extra cashflow or perhaps spreading out the buys - which surely would be a kind of DCA conversion of that value from cash (or whatever it is) into bitcoin.

For sure, I tend to preach DCA quite frequently because it seems that many times we have an audience of peeps in this thread who are still working towards reaching their BTC accumulation targets, yet from my thinking, once you reach your targets you would transition into more of a maintenance stage.. and perhaps even liquidation stage at some even later date.  

When guys have been into BTC for a while, they develop their own particular variations of such strategies, and it can get confusing to figure out where they are at when they seem to be bouncing around between strategies.. so then there could be some questions about whether they are emphasizing trading or HODL...

I don't really want to be stalking you, Oro.. but I recall you selling pretty big chucks all the way up from $14k to $50k.. and sure, from time to time, I would be thinking how the fuck could you still be selling, aren't you going to run out?  So sure, here comes a time when you can buy some back, provided that you sold some higher than the price you are buying back, and for sure part of the key in being ahead of even some of those larger swing kinds of trades would be to wait for the price to come to you.. .which seems to have been more difficult for guys who had been selling BTC in mid to late 2020.. and then many of them have not been able to buy back lower than $30k (at least not for very long), and it is not easy to say if they might get another chance this time around.. For sure, for some of us, the BTC prices seem to be visiting lower territories than many of us thought to be within the realms of reasonable possibilities.

How long is it going to stay down here?  Will it go lower?  

Hey, for sure I was not wedded to $40k as a floor.. but still breaking below is not any kind of comfortable place to be because $40k was already a 41% correction area, and so now, we have reached so far lows down to $35,423 within the last 7 hours. which would be approaching a 49% correction arena....so far.... so far.. are we done yet?

By the way, I had 5 buy orders fill in the last 24 hours from $39k down to $35k, and I have had about enough of that... ..

[Biodom]

Still, you should buy when it starts going back up, NOT while it is going down.
I don't know about bitcoin (perhaps it is unique), but buying any other asset when it is going down is a sure path to ruin..you just never know when it is going to stop.
Well, if you mechanically DCA, maybe OK, especially for indexes, but then you shouldn't increase or decrease your DCA-ing based on your price perception.
The latter could be erroneous.

[suchmoon]

... who's out to get me specifically? do you have evidence for that?

... why are you here if it is a shithole?

I don't have "somewhere else" to go. Don't be like me, get out while you can.

[d_eddie]

…..
Saying it's nonsense doesn't make it so, disprove the claims or get the fuck out of our thread.

As a general rule, it’s the job of the person who makes the claims to prove them true.

+1 WOsMerit

The original point of disagreement was brought up by our nice neighbor - no, not Flanders.

Top Scientists conspired to cover up lab leak investigation

Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

I could care less about the "death jab" tinfoil talk, which is perhaps more suited to a different thread - such as Bob's.

However, I have read the leaked emails on the Telegraph (redacted) . Do we remember the "inspection" in Wuhan? Obfuscated by a cloud of locals, it boiled down to little more than a farce. Most of us have a clue about Bayes' Rule, and those who don't can look it up ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem ). An old, intuitive hypothesis can then be dressed in more rigorous formulation. With a little imagination to fill in some cinematic detail, just give Netflix and HBO the time to figure out who gets to do it first.



Bat caves, far away
An underpaid janitor
Corona ran free


#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Try and make it spot - backed by real corn for a change, Larry?

[JayJuanGee]

Raoul Pal is an even bigger imbecile than I thought he was after he started his nonsense ETH to $40K shite 4-5 months ago:



He has 1 BTC?

Literally less than 99% of us in WO?

Why did ANY crypto Youtuber ever invite this absolute fraud onto their channels?

He never believed in BTC at all it seems to me. He is more concerned with being liked on Twitter / YouTube.

What a fucking douche.

There's lots of these people. They're the kind who would of sided with the Nazis because it was a good trade.

There might be a preference to see the actual tweet link and the context.  I cannot find it by searching around...

For sure, I am familiar with some of the thoughts of both of those guys, and surely Greg Foss is a recent entrant into bitcoin who is quite vocal about BTC being a long-term play.  

Raoul Pal seems to be more of an opportunist willing to go anywhere that might be profitable in the short to medium term.. and he does seem to believe that ethereum and some of that crap built around ethereum are longer term plays.. but it is unclear with him too regarding how long he might stay in a trade.., and does it really matter to any of us who don't want to get involved in ethereum anyhow, and surely might question how some of this trades have been going lately if he is focused so much upon Ethereum.. and yeah, Pal does spend quite a bit of time bashing on bitcoiners who do not appreciate the supposed values in ethereum.. and surely many of us consider that either Pal is going to get burnt pretty badly or at least others who are following him may well get burnt pretty badly..

I have heard Pal speak before, and surely he does seem to be a kind of trader who hedges so that he would be largely prepared if trades move against him... but yeah, seems like a lot of wasted brainpower to a lot of us bitcoiners who have trouble considering when the rug might get pulled in ethereum and are they going to keep their stupid-ass rube goldberg machine going... and if so for how long?

... so my CIA outing post was deleted by the "moderator" ... infofront are we a controlled operation here now? ... just be good to know then I can go somewhere else, thnx.

They're definitely out to get you. And "somewhere else" sounds much nicer than this shithole, you should do that.

suchmoon
Posts:    23723
Activity:    2926
Merit:    7090
Position:    Legendary
Date Registered:    01 February 2014, 11:51:04

... who's out to get me specifically? do you have evidence for that?

... why are you here if it is a shithole?

I doubt that infofront is deleting those kinds of political or conspiracy theory posts, and I had seen posts from suchmoon previously suggesting that we had some kind of objective to stay on topic in this thread.. which surely is not the case... so maybe someone reported your post.. which seems like the mods should have just left the post if it had happened to have been reported for something like off topic or a conspiracy or whatever... that would not be sufficient to delete it..

In other words, I cannot really see any problem with what you might have posted, if you are referring to the substance that you linked above... not sure if i need to repost it.. but even if it seems too conspiratorial.. that seems like a BIG so what, at least in terms of topics that we might entertain in this thread... .. and I think that we had discussed that most things can have some connections to bitcoin.. including some of the various political topics.. even if we might not agree about some of the places that some guys might go with their discussion.. ..

For example, if your way of presenting might not have been sufficiently related to bitcoin because that does not seem to be a requirement in these here parts, unless infofront were going to get into those kinds of sortings of substance.. .which I thought that the only kinds of substance that infofront would have been sorting would have been the obvious trolls, shitcoiners and if you were providing topics just to distract from our talking about bitcoin .. which is another way of describing a kind of troll... but maybe we are not seeing enough of infofront, and mods are getting reports.. but again.. this thread does not even seem to have a regularly assigned mod - because the mods would likely ONLY get involved with very egregious rule breaking such as threats or maybe OPsec type violations or maybe ban evasion or somethings that are more egregious like that.

[OROBTC]

...

JJG #603621

I started my real sales (joining Gemini to do so) in Jan 2021, I sold in small pieces from ~$40,000 down to some $30,000, up to that local peak of ~$64,000, down to $40,000, some up near the ATH of ~$66,000 and small amounts afterwards.  Average: some $42,000 and change (so not the best timing, it's all on my spreadsheet for the IRS).  Long term gains.  

In retrospect, it looks like I sold a bit too much, so I decided this year that if/when the price went below my 2021 average sale amount, that I would buy a smidge.  I'd like to get my BTC balance a little bit higher, so if we go down, I will buy poco-a-poco until I feel like I'm done.

This is actually pretty similar to what I did back in 2017 and 2018, I sold bits off (actually I traded BTC for gold, the only way to easily capture my gains at that time for me) as BTC was running up hard, and a bit on the downslope after the 2017 peak.  I did buy later, in 2018 and subsequent years, as the price went down in the Crypto Winter.  THIS time I may have jumped the gun re buying (too soon?), but so what.

As I have written before, BTC has been extremely good to my family.  I will have a nice Cap Gain tax for our buds there at .gov.

So, it's all good.  My "DCA methodology" is not really that, but fairly similar, similar enough.  I have no idea how long it will/may take for me to start selling again, check with me once we reach, say $80,000...  If it works out like 2017/2018 and 2021, then great.  If it doesn't, my gains are still far more than I invested.  And much of those gains are already locked up for our two very young grandsons.


Edited for clarity

Edit 2.  Yes, by happy chance I recently did get a monetary gift, that made my buying decision a little easier.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

...

m_of_a

One of these days you're going to have to tell us what that equation is...  I checked a couple of math sites awhile back, wasn't at any of them, similar ones, but....

https://www.wolframalpha.com/

Here goes. Doxed.

[JayJuanGee]

People with balls of steel

Good night sleep tight.

Don’t got them balls of steel, neither of diamond or….

I got myself balls of Bitcoin…. 

Orange ones? Man you need to see a doctor asap! 

Exactly..!!!!!


 the dude is taking this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie too far. 












(again)......







 

In times like this I always like to look at the order books. The same number of coins can move us either to $30k or to $70k - a new ATH. That should be comforting.

Haha yeah it should be... but somehow it's not... 

For sure.. there is way more going on in terms of BTC price dynamics rather than just looking at the how many orders you can see on the order books.

Purchased my $50 dca and $200 dip

These 36k numbers may allow me to move out of the crab status and into Octopus a year faster than planned for.

I personally sense that 10 BTC should be entering into entry-level fuck you status around mid to late 2025.. .. of course, that is a ballpark idea that continues to need to be monitored...and of course, there are some personal customization regarding what would be fuck you status and how to treat it based on your personal factors, including perhaps your specific elderly timeline.

All 2021 taxes paid in full.

Still waiting for my 2020 refund check I will get a lot of dip with it.

Looks a lot like 2018 and that means get ready for rising difficulty and dropping prices.

I wonder about that... I suppose that we will see in the coming 1-2 months if there is any kind of sustainable recovery from here... sometimes I have some difficulties outlining parameters that would cause me to consider that we might have moved out of our current bull market...

Of course, our current correction down to 49% is not a very comfortable feeling to be saying that is just another one of those weird corrections.. blah blah blah... .. but still seems premature to say that we are in the early stages of a bear market, even though a lot of peeps are currently saying that... and .. gosh.. am I really going to have to update my December 16 post with Down scenario contemplations?   

[ImThour]

Expect price reversal from $31k.

[OROBTC]

...

m_of_a

One of these days you're going to have to tell us what that equation is...  I checked a couple of math sites awhile back, wasn't at any of them, similar ones, but....

https://www.wolframalpha.com/

Here goes. Doxed.


[edited out]

Excellent, d_eddie!

[jojo69]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/the-impact-of-bitcoin-on-war

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

Expect price reversal from $31k.

Weekly RSI it is not yet at 2020 Covid crash level, it is possible.