Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

At this point while I’m only an UP guy … I wouldn’t be bothered with a flash dip until 23k as max deep….

Got a ladder untill there

Though I wish up, long term I would be better of with the flash dip…

A shining example of the best position one could be in.  And it is not a simple place to find peace.  I feel certain that your poker experience has enabled you to detach (some) emotion in these circumstances.  It has for me.  That and being beaten to a bloody pulp by bitcoin's bear markets having been here for every last one of them. lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

Well, you have made your position and allegiances clear.  I remember during the (second? I think?) gulf war.  I used to go to an auto shop run by Kurds.  Their position on the war and the US involvement in it was extremely unique amongst folks from the middle east.

Everyone has their allegiances.

I would love all the conflict to END.  But that is not in the cards.

Strategic trade routes, and places with particular natural resources are being fought for actively, and it's getting hotter each day.

The prelude to this great war is pretty close to over... the overture is winding up, and the big curtains are about to be drawn back.  At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it.

the 'end of it' could be more than we bargained for.
i don't like the whole setup.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. 

[serveria.com]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago

Source on this?

I'm following the developments quite closely, and know that NATO isn't touching Ukraine with a 10-ft pole over angering Russia.

Same with Russia: they prefer to scare the shit out of Ukraine by placing their troops right next to the border. Ukrainians are buying food (and prolly TP) supplies like crazy cause they think the war is inevitable. We used to have a WO member from Ukraine would be great to hear from him what the situation really is like... 

[serveria.com]

Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal.
Shuffle & regroup a bit, and these 3 forces could unite their territories to drastically reshape the world map & power structures.

Not sure about Iran but from what I've heard Russians don't really like the Chinese and vice versa. Otherwise they would form an alliance decades ago. They even had an armed conflict from what I know and barely avoided a full-scale war during Soviet times. 

[Paashaas]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? 

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.


Source

127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

Poetin will think twice if he wants to take over Europe all the way to London, it will not happen it's all bluffing propaganda.

The U.S itself has the largest and most technologically advanced military in the world. They have air and sea superiority, this is the result of years of spending enormous amounth of money and they continue doing so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. 

Actually watching this...  lot's of good stuff in it. Not much new, but he is good at communicating his beliefs.

I do not see a strong position as to what comes in the short term.  But he thinks it's going up, and that the anxiety we are experiencing right now is designed to make us sell or buy.

"There's only one mistake when you have made the right decision is to get panicked out of your position.  Don't panic."

-The Creed of the Bagholder

[serveria.com]

$34900... moar pain incoming? 

[philipma1957]

Well maybe we go nice and low say 33333 or maybe not.

I will be cancelling next gpu order for $900 as it has yet to arrive.

I purchased 500 of the cancelled 2500 order. so 2000 left and this 900 makes 2900 for dip buys.

[eddie13]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? 

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.


Source

127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

Poetin will think twice if he wants to take over Europe all the way to London, it will not happen it's all bluffing propaganda.

The U.S itself has the largest and most technologically advanced military in the world. They have air and sea superiority, this is the result of years of spending enormous amounth of money and they continue doing so.

I’ve been in Hawaii for the last couple months working in joint base PHH right next to these brand new destroyers and docked submarines..
They are pretty badass looking..


I thought the destroyers would have more guns like the older battleships but no.. They just use rockets for everything these days I guess..

[xhomerx10]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  

[icopress]

And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

This is true, Russia is very strong ... but Russia is not interested in the whole of Ukraine, but only in the Russian-speaking part of it, that part of the population that has sympathy for Russia. Be that as it may, I, as a person living in Ukraine, can assure you that this fake news noise is nothing more than a fiction, since Russia will not, under any circumstances, spoil relations with the 20 million Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.

127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

To be honest, you have no idea what you're talking about ... since, the 60 billion dollars you mentioned will never go to Ukraine, and secondly, the European Union will not cut off its own leg by entering into a military derby against Russia, especially when it comes to Ukraine. Btw, the population of Ukraine is 50 times more loyal to the Russian contingent than to the European one, (especially since the Ukrainian and European mentality are extremely different from each other).

[Phil_S]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago

Source on this?

I'm following the developments quite closely, and know that NATO isn't touching Ukraine with a 10-ft pole over angering Russia.

Poking the bear with a sharp stick...

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uk-planes-long-detour-around-germany-deliver-weapons-2022-1

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  

My mind will be blown and my mouth will gape open if we reach sub 20k prices.  But then my mouth will close and I will go back to doing what I am doing again.  Bitcoin is hard to predict.  I figure I am right somewhere around 1/2 the time.