Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[icopress]

Btw, I always wanted to ask you why do you use shorts instead of a cap? Are you a Bane fan?  

[OutOfMemory]

127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

To be honest, you have no idea what you're talking about ... since, the 60 billion dollars you mentioned will never go to Ukraine, and secondly, the European Union will not cut off its own leg by entering into a military derby against Russia, especially when it comes to Ukraine. Btw, the population of Ukraine is 50 times more loyal to the Russian contingent than to the European one, (especially since the Ukrainian and European mentality are extremely different from each other).

The UK did step into that boat, however, recently selling anti-tank weaponry to the Ukraine.
A sane leader would just divide the country into a russian and ukranian part following a public voting.
But the crimea is strategically priceless. Russia won't let any other superpower mount troops there. Ever. Everybody who is not blinded yet can see this.
And as you said before, Russia doesn't have to "invade" the "russian" part of Ukraine, because it practically is russian, by means of population.
Germany/EU is only hurting itself in sanctioning RU, i don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the CIA having had most of EU's member governments under surveillance for quite some years. They even tapped the smartphone of Angela Merkel.
How many dickpics do you have to find on her phone to be able to blackmail her?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bct_ail]

but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  

When I look at the heatmap, it looks to me like we have first to go below the 200-week moving average before we go back up sustainably. 

[Torque]

I see several supposedly bull accounts now spouting low key bearish, "I think we definitely going much lower so sell noaw" crap.

Sus af. Bear troll accounts in disguise. We see you.

Fuk off.

[JayJuanGee]

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  

My mind will be blown and my mouth will gape open if we reach sub 20k prices.  But then my mouth will close and I will go back to doing what I am doing again.  Bitcoin is hard to predict.  I figure I am right somewhere around 1/2 the time.

Well, at the approximate rate that the 200-week moving average has been moving up (it has been at about 76.2% per year), it will be at about $26.5k in 6 months, and over $50k in the next 1.5 years...

This is what that looks like, approximately:

Start $        StartDate           % gain /time           Time              Coins/FU status
$110                  1/24/14               38.10%                   182.6          $2,000,000.00
208-week MA      
      
   Date        MA-Price                        gain/time                  Coins/FUStatus
   7/25/14   $152                                  $42                           13,165.69021131
   1/24/15   $210                                     $58                              9,533.44693071
   7/25/15   $290                                     $80                              6,903.29249146
   1/24/16   $400                                     $110                              4,998.76357094
   7/25/16   $553                                     $152                              3,619.66949380
   1/23/17   $763                                     $211                              2,621.04959725
   7/25/17   $1,054                                     $291                              1,897.93598642
   1/23/18   $1,455                                     $401                              1,374.32004810
   7/25/18   $2,010                                     $554                              995.16296024    
   1/24/19   $2,775                                     $766                              720.61039844
   7/25/19   $3,833                                     $1,057                              521.80332979
   1/24/20   $5,293                                     $1,460                              377.84455452
   7/24/20   $7,310                                     $2,017                              273.60213940
   1/23/21   $10,095                                     $2,785                              198.11885547
   7/25/21   $13,941                                     $3,846                              143.46043119
   1/23/22   $19,253                                     $5,312                              103.88155770
   7/25/22   $26,588                                     $7,335                              75.22198241
   1/23/23   $36,718                                     $10,130                              54.46921246
   7/25/23   $50,708                                     $13,990                              39.44186275
   1/24/24   $70,027                                     $19,320                              28.56036405
   7/24/24   $96,707                                     $26,680                              20.68092980
   1/23/25   $133,553                                     $36,846                              14.97532932
   7/24/25   $184,437                                     $50,884                              10.84383007
   1/23/26   $254,707                                     $70,270                              7.85215791
   7/25/26   $351,750                                     $97,043                              5.68584932


Of course, it does seem likely that the spot price would meet the 200-week moving average at some point before 1.5 years - even as the 200-week moving average continues to move up..   It's just that sooner or later there likely to be such a drop in the spot price that they meet, even just temporarily. 

Of course, the rate at which the 200-week moving average goes up (at about 76.2% on average) is not guaranteed either.. even though several of us who have been in bitcoin for a while are on the same page that now does not seem to be the time for the spot price to be meeting the 200-week moving average... or at least not any time soon... and hey, yeah, there are a lot of times that we end up getting surprised in bitcoinlandia both to the upside and to the downside - even though many of us are still kind of appreciating that on a broader view basis we have not been wrong in terms of overall Uppity that has tended to take years and years and years to play out (even though some of the UPwardly violent moves happen in violent spurts).. .. not exactly on a schedule, but the whole thing kind of resembles a schedule when we look at it in broad historical terms.


Edit: clarified a bit of language

[Arriemoller]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? 

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.


Source

127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million.

Poetin will think twice if he wants to take over Europe all the way to London, it will not happen it's all bluffing propaganda.

The U.S itself has the largest and most technologically advanced military in the world. They have air and sea superiority, this is the result of years of spending enormous amounth of money and they continue doing so.

I’ve been in Hawaii for the last couple months working in joint base PHH right next to these brand new destroyers and docked submarines..
They are pretty badass looking..


I thought the destroyers would have more guns like the older battleships but no.. They just use rockets for everything these days I guess..

If it's a stealth ship it's all hidden and only pops out when needed, as seen in the beginning of this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68HMA1D7pQU
Missiles are also hidden, as seen in this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1bx8IC8lCA

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

Nice little candle there... More of that thanks

[dragonvslinux]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  

I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?

Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K.

A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs.

The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here.

Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels.

By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal.

The single reason for war hysteria switching to wartime propaganda mode is the need for war. Anglo-Saxon world is bankrupt. They need war to write off the mountains of non-performing debt. However, if there is a war it won't be the one they need! At the end they will have to pay back everything they owe to the rest of the world. Germany and France must be very careful not to side with the warmongers!

... the "war" hysteria is only in the West, it's all about creating a distraction from the MAJOR fuck-up that was the plandemic, CIA(DARPA?) genetically-modifed franken-virus lab-leak and dangerous mass jabbing malfeasance, mass psychosis that was pushed by the psy-ops, psychopathic freaks in 'intelligence' agencies ... now they NEED a huge distraction to stop the populations turning on the the gubmints ... and don't talk about the fucked-up public health whatever you do, no, no, no, NOT ALLOWED TO TALK ABOUT COVID NOW ... back to your regular idiot programming clown show circus idiots

Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukranie, war,  war , war ... bamp ditta dum-dum, bump ditta dum dumb MI6 CIA no no never gonna let you down dump ditta dump

[Richy_T]

Btw, I always wanted to ask you why do you use shorts instead of a cap? Are you a Bane fan?  

Well, truth is, I'm just not a joiner. So I'm just poking a bit of light fun.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I have trouble following all the crypto news, but what do you mean by "ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH" ? Isn't the point of ETH 2.0 to go to a staking formula, and thus not a release but rather the opposite, more ETH staked ?

Staking is already happening but staked ETH2s are currently locked up in validators and can't be moved. A hard fork later this year (although given how slow Ethereum development is, it might be sometime in 2024) will allow those coins to be moved. Staking started in late 2020 when ETH was like $500, there's a good chance that substantial profit-taking will happen once withdrawals from validators are allowed. Unless it goes back below $500 by then.

... so a shitcoiner, here to tell us this place is shithole?

... maybe the shitholes aren't following you around, you're bringing them with you?

[Biodom]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  

I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?

Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K.

A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs.

The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here.

Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels.

By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later.

yes, sounds quite plausible...imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish).
I still think that this is not a description of the bull market continuation, but something new.
In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense. Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).

[icopress]

A little over a year has passed since the last update, but the unshakable pillar of the WO gang is still JJG, having written 2271 posts in the last 13 months.

➥ The profiles of the people (below) have been sorted according to their contribution to the development and maintenance of interest in this place.
➥ The matrix displays the position of users among the most active, relative to the last update and not relative to their place in the list.
➥ I also excluded inactive and those who sold their souls to the devil while wearing the usual avatars, (Richy_T is an exception as he is a Bane fan).
➥ And finally, if you want to try your hand at bitcointalk history, take the Quiz.

JayJuanGee 20526 / 👑	El duderino_ 14452 / + 1	LFC_Bitcoin 7275 / + 4	jojo69 7012 / + 2	JimboToronto 5801 / + 3	Torque 5364 / + 5	bitserve 5136 / + 2	Richy_T 4183 / New
BobLawblaw 4158 / + 5	d_eddie 4034 / + 6	xhomerx10 3627 / + 7	Toxic2040 3587 / + 3	Elwar 3436 / + 4	Hueristic 3412 / + 7	Biodom 3409 / + 8	marcus_of_augustus 3261 / + 3
Arriemoller 3144 / + 9	cAPSLOCK 2767 / + 21	BitcoinGirl.Club 2593 / + 3	lightfoot 2411 / + 10	serveria.com 2398 / + 14	OutOfMemory 2303 / New	infofront 2302 / Hoster	Paashaas 2300 / + 4
AlcoHoDL 2291 / + 15	600watt 2252 / - 1	Wekkel 2128 / + 6	sirazimuth 2125 / New	fillippone 2097 / + 3	Cryptotourist 1908 / + 5	Phil_S 1900 / + 7	savetherainforest 181 / New
vapourminer 1739 / New ______________	bitcoinPsycho 1692 / New ______________	philipma1957 1460 / + 5 __________	HI-TEC99 1302 / New __________	bitebits 1297 / New __________	ivomm 1276 / New __________	goldkingcoiner 1273 / New __________	Dabs 1168 / New __________

Code:

- ChartBuddy is not included in the list due to auto-posting, (27530 posts).
- No cap or Inactive:
HairyMaclairy, Last of the V8s, BlindMayorBitcorn, Ibian, VB1001, kurious, BTCMILLIONAIRE, Gyrsur, kingcolex, Searing, yefi, Globb0,
Lambie, Slayer, seleme, DaRude, mindrust, nutildah, becoin, molecular, somac, JSRAW, bones261, Icygreen, ssmc2, luckygenough56.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Fuck 24 pages back!

Thanks a ton for the well wishes brothers, warms my heart.

Started to break up this morning and already feeling a ton better.

Did have a test dropped off yesterday and indeed was positive.

I'll quarantine another 5 days (think thats the amount) after I feel 100%.

Had a dumb ass buddy drop by after being in a retarded situation (3 day bus ride with sick people) without quarantining himself.

There is no curing stupid and I was a casualty of it.

the sad part is he had a spyder shipped to himself instead of riding it which cost him 1200 and then couldn't justify the 650 for the one way plane so did himself in with the bus.

He should have rode the damn spyder!

He couldn't wait to bring it by for me to check out (he used to play on my bikes as a kid doing the vroom vroom thing) and apparently has infected the entire extended family as well.

Ohh, I didn't notice the thing doesn't have a brake handle so got to the end of the road to the stop sign flying and had a split second of panic when there was no BRAKE Handle!

Luckily I react quick in situations and hit the back brake which actually controls them all on that thing (not like a bike though as it stopped on a dime instead of sliding like a bike would have and almost tossed me over the bars).  

This is exactly like it.

[Richy_T]

This is exactly like it.

I have become less and less agreeable to three-wheelers over the years. Chopped VWs were really the only ones I ever thought worthwhile.

I do give a pass for those physically unable to ride a proper motorcycle. But there are better options even for many of them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  

I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?

Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K.

A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs.

The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here.

Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels.

By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later.

Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).

To clarify, I wasn't saying $10K-$15K isn't statistically possible, only that it's not statistically possible to have the same bear market as twice before; 85% correction, 1 year downtrend with 200 Week MA support as the low. For starters, it'd be way too obvious, but mainly because the 200 Week MA is at $20K now so -85% is way too far, if we are to think the same bear market draw down would happen again.

My point was for the "cycle traders" to realise that while November may well end up being a macro top for now, it also shows that the same type of bear market as twice before can't happen again, for what that is worth. Not that I stated it, but I otherwise see current support levels holding (as I said around $46k before it didn't). The hodler fundmentals of Bitcoin would have to dramatically change in order to see 6-12 month hodlers capitulating below $30K, given that the capitulation often comes form the 3-6 month crowd, not the 6-12 month. The 2-3 year hodlers (cycle traders) have already largely sold, somewhat predictably.

Price would have to make new ATH for the usual bear market recipe to occur basically, otherwise just like the current bull market hasn't been the same as previous, neither will the bear market if it comes.

In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense.

I also think March/April 2022 could well be the low, as it would be a 1 year recovery after price went relatively parabolic, as well as you put it when the momentum ended. Despite price making a new ATH later in the year, it wasn't with the same volume or overbought conditions or anything similar to a continuation. More like a lower high that just so happened to be high due to low selling pressure at the time.

3-4 months is also a fair amount of time to return to $40K-$50K before finally making it down to $30K, even if personally I won't be holding my breath for lower prices to actually happen.

imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish).

This I also agree is pretty likely at this point. If we are not in a bear market, nor a bull market, then further consolidation for a few months or more around a neutral-ish level ($45K maybe) wouldn't be out the question now. Bitcoin has never really consolidated in a bullish structure like this, but then again, price has also never consolidated at the highs for 12 months either, so time to think outside of the box for a change.