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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1%)
7/28 - 11 (11%)
8/4 - 16 (16%)
8/11 - 7 (7%)
8/18 - 5 (5%)
8/25 - 7 (7%)
After August - 53 (53%)
Total Voters: 100

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26457286 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 25, 2022, 05:23:34 AM
Merited by Welsh (8), Farmer Bill (1)

[edited out]

The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....

You should already realize that bitcoin is not simple.

I agree with you that it is possible that no blow-off will occur this time; however, there is a little problema with human nature and greed..

the bearwhale twats cannot help their lil selfies...

they manipulate the BTC price down lower and longer than it should be, and wham, bam, thank you ma'am.. another blow off top has just occurred.

I would not be too quick to write it off, even if it is possible that it will not happen, the odds are not really in your favor... and I am not even giving any shits.. because my finances and my psychology is fine (prepared) either way, but that does not mean that bitcoin is not going to end up doing what it tends to do.. which is get out of control..

again.. I don't give any shits about the extra money that I will be making in such scenario because I already have enough.. but the problem is that there is a kind of underlying situation that we have going on and that is the greatest wealth transfer in history.. so it seems quite implausible to be conjecturing that everything is going to go fine, smooth and dandy.. which is about the ONLY thing that does not happen in bitcoinlandia.

In other words, volatility is inevitable, including volatility to the upside whether we are prepared for such upside volatility or not.

Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

I don't buy it for one minute that price follows hashrate.. good luck with that theory..

By the way, miners speculate on price in terms of their incentives to mine, so sure they might even front run their hashrate out of anticipation of which way the price is going.. but they do not control price, even though you and some other believe in that theory (your not the only one for sure.. but not this cat)...

China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

I will grant that some of the China dynamics have been quite interesting in the last year.. but I doubt that it has really delayed much of anything.. and king daddy hardly gives any shits.. .tick tock next block.. etc etc.. .. in spite little tales about China fucking things up and blah blah blah.. it only served as an excuse for panic and the shaking of weak hands.. yet in the end, it did go to show how bitcoin has a pretty damned strong self-correcting mechanism for anyone who wants to strategize attacking it in various ways.. good luck.. you are going to need to use a lot of resources.. so sure, it might not be the last time that the BTC network is attacked.. and for sure there was some learning that came from such China attack situation including that some miners have been reconsidering their geographical distribution of their services and where they get their supplies in order that they will be in a position to be more profitable upon other attack situations.  yes, a variety of miner preparations in which some miners are going to put themselves in better positions than others to withstand and sustain an attack, and surely the amount of profits in the last year attracted a lot of miners too.. who will likely get washed out if the competition gets more fierce.. but will they last a year or two before competition gets more fierce? or will they get weeded out in a shorter timeframe?


Yes.. miners will reference some general trends, but they will also reference their own situation including how long they have been in mining and what equipment and facilities that they already have including its profitability and if there are ways to make it more profitable... .From my perspective there are surely some lagging indicator aspects that are connected with mining (even though you consider it as some kind of a leader..), but I surely do find it to be a good sign that miners continue to come into bitcoin mining and causing the hashrate and difficulties to continue to go up.. even if there have been some down periods.. but even the lower hashrates and difficulties of the period in 2021 did not disincentivize miners from continuing to mine, build their mining systems and to establish businesses around bitcoin.. which surely is not bad for bitcoin fundamentals..and likely inspires confidence in the bitcoin price whether it ends up playing out that way in the short-to-medium term or not.

By the way, I started talking about how I did not consider that BTC's spot price would be meeting the 200-week moving average any time soon and a tentative theory that the 200-week moving average may well go up another 3x before spot price meets it.. not easy to say with any certainty how these matters will play out.. but I am no where close to buying your theory (and others have made similar claims) that mining and hash rate are in any way leading in the directly indications of how much BTC prices might move in one direction or another or the extent to which spot price may well continue to stay above the 200-week moving average.
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January 25, 2022, 06:01:33 AM


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JayJuanGee
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January 25, 2022, 06:18:14 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2022, 07:38:07 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Welsh (4)


Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

That does not mean that the BTC price follows mining or mining difficulties.  You can wish that hashrate leads all that you like, but makes hardly any sense and it's going to lead you to the wrong conclusions on a variety of occasions if you continue to believe such crazy detached concepts and especially if you make your BTC allocation or reallocation decisions based on such a lagging indicator.. and/or fail/refuse to account for indicators that are likely more predictive of BTC price dynamics such as stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (mining is one of the 7 or so network effects, so ONLY one of the network effects factors)

For sure there are some good aspects in terms of monitoring the presence, role and incentives of mining, especially if you are in the business of mining... and figuring out the extent that mining might be profitable or not or more profitable than buying bitcoin directly without getting involved in mining.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

base cost of a coin should help miners to determine whether they are going to mine or not mine.... including help them to decide the extent to which they will expand or shrink operations or attempt to make their operations more efficient in order to attempt to be profitable.

He is making perfect sense.

Does not make sense to me.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

Yes.. you are coming off as quasi-delusional, argumentative for the sake of it and spouting out bullshit and hardly tied to reality proclamations.. including your attempt to make a nonsense framework that either BTC price is lead by hashrate or otherwise anyone who does not agree with that way of thinking about the matter then believes in POS...   nonsense..  

Actually in some sense, people who buy bitcoin or even support bitcoin might not even need to know the technical background of bitcoin, or the difference between bitcoin and other coins in order to participate in this thread and to develop some rationale for their own decisions to allocate or partially allocate some of their value into bitcoin.

You are showing your own ignorance and leading into arrogance with those kinds of lacking in insight claims, especially worse when you try to proclaim that you understand bitcoin by asserting that you are a miner who supports and supposedly understands POW.. also probably have to question even if you understand POW if you are trying to assert that it means that miners are in control and leading the price blah blah blah.

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.

Yes.. stand behind bullshit frameworks (and show your ignorance).. that makes a lot of sense and makes you look real good...

It's a bit ironic that you have been in bitcoin for more than 10 years, but only recently you realized that it might be good to hold some coins, and now all of a sudden you are an expert on bitcoin because you had learned how to mine and spend bitcoin.. more than 10 years ago, but you only recently learned that HODLing coins was something that might be a good thing, in case bitcoin were to catch on...

Surely seems to be some strange claims that you are making... even questioning your past judgements and experiences, and then all of a sudden you are an expert about what kinds of beliefs qualify members to participate in this thread, too?.

edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


Fuck off with that nonsense...  .

second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS

You are repeating yourself, and also you seem to not even understand what kinds of frameworks you are creating or the trade offs between supporting bitcoin versus a shitcoin, participating in this thread or participating in bitcoin... .. and yeah.. you are giving permission for us to not understand even when we have to question your understanding.. and your supposedly being smarter than everyone else.


It should be pretty clear that quite a few longer-term bitcoiners have learned that bitcoin brought POW to the space, and so bitcoin is differentiated from a lot of coins by both its paradigm invention and application of POW including difficulty adjustments every 2016 blocks, and at the same that network effects including mining and other networking effects have grown around it... so you surely were creating some kind of false dichotomy when you are proclaiming that miners are leading bitcoin's price blah blah blah.. and that true believers in bitcoin need to sufficiently understand the power of mining, which surely any of us should be able to understand that mining is powerful, but also understand that a variety of factors - besides mining contributes towards BTC's price dynamics..
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January 25, 2022, 07:01:24 AM


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JayJuanGee
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January 25, 2022, 07:05:00 AM

I don't remember taking the quiz previously.  I

I did take aysg76's quiz and maybe a few other forum or bitcoin related quizes over the years.

I would not mind seeing a bit more of a mixture of questions.. both bitcoin and forum related.. easy and more difficult questions.. and maybe a dedicated thread.. solicitation for question topics.. suggestions privately and in the thread... maybe once a year re-issuance.. Yeah.. maybe a lot of work.. but not a bad topic.. and surely there could be some fun with that topic too.. maybe throw in old and new questions.. and yeah of course, repeat test takers would likely get better results, even if they don't study...
It was a test run after which I changed about 5 more questions  Tongue

 As for the last quiz, it was posted in this thread (and since it didn't have a separate thread, it's likely you missed it). Anyway, We are Live!!

[Voting] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382917.0
[Discussion] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5277804
[Quiz] History of Bitcoin and Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381367.0

Oh it seems that I was ONLY watching one out of 4 of those threads.. and I suppose that it was something that was not as interesting to me.. since it kind of gravitated towards a meta-type category.. I had noticed that one of the bitcoin talk Youtube videos had mentioned the community awards, so I probably had been aware of the 2020 vote and thread that was being referenced within that YouTube video.
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January 25, 2022, 07:40:49 AM

So Biden's answers to inflation is SOB.

Only if he knew Bitcoin.
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January 25, 2022, 08:01:24 AM


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January 25, 2022, 08:16:22 AM

While CB is off road you guys just have this one and take a chill pill or btc pill whatever you want to :



This is really strong one during this time so make sure to do as instructed which says HODL
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January 25, 2022, 09:01:33 AM


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January 25, 2022, 10:01:24 AM


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Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)


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January 25, 2022, 10:53:09 AM

Long time I have been hearing from Roger actually and much longer from that Jihan character

Both forked themselves into irrelevancy

Roger pretty much disappeared from everywhere...
Bitcoin talk: Not Active
Twitter: Dead
Reddit: disappeared
But it is very active non.. Drumroll..

Instagram!


Not a nice view, tbh.


A coke withdrawal and its consequences just aren't nice to view  Wink

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

...

... respect. Welcome to the All-In Club.

... relax,  leave the old world behind as much as you can.

FTFY:
... relax,  accept the old world as much as you can.

for no being a part of it any longer

Poor fiat-evangelists deserve some empathy, don't they?

Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom" Wink

That makes no sense OOM.

Think again:
If you'd have mined BTC at a price of $300 (for example), how can $35k be the bottom?  Huh
Sure, it's not the best profit for a miner, not as much as selling to exchanges at $69k, but it's quite far from "selling at the bottom".
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January 25, 2022, 11:01:26 AM


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January 25, 2022, 12:01:34 PM


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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 25, 2022, 12:57:05 PM
Merited by LoyceV (2), BobLawblaw (2), Hueristic (1), Farmer Bill (1)

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850
[...]

In the end, BTC will either go to zero or it will be a great success. [...]


10 years ago i found bitcoin, and vowed i would ride this pig either into the ground or right to the moon. its allowed me to retire early already.

its a pretty good ride.

and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as youre cool with that Welcome!
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January 25, 2022, 01:01:25 PM


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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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January 25, 2022, 01:01:30 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), AverageGlabella (2)

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January 25, 2022, 01:12:55 PM

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850
[...]

In the end, BTC will either go to zero or it will be a great success. [...]


10 years ago i found bitcoin, and vowed i would ride this pig either into the ground or right to the moon. its allowed me to retire early already.

its a pretty good ride.

and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome!

After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero. And pretty clear in which direction it is heading. Also, Wall Street wouldn't bother with ETFs if it had a chance to go to zero.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 25, 2022, 01:19:04 PM

and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome!

After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero.

i dunno man my moon is pretty up there. i like BIG numbers not mediocre (even for for ants) numbers. so $35k USD is closer to zero than my moon.
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January 25, 2022, 01:26:40 PM

Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.

I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?
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January 25, 2022, 01:45:17 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), AverageGlabella (2)

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

I am sure it has been said several times, since you posted.  Most of us will agree you have done something quite smart.  But of course it could be a rocky road.  Some folks think we will keep going down from here... others think it is a local bottom.

Aside from my home, which I own, I have my entire net worth in BTC.  It's tricky.  If you have 10 thousand dollars it will remain exactly 10k$ for ever, whole goods and services go up in price little by little.  With bitcoin you will also have (currently) a little more than .25BTC, but its value in goods and services can go up and down violently as it trends up (the opposite of the USD).

So there are two differences.  For it's whole life a single bitcoin will buy you more and more over time.  Over the long haul.  With 300% rises and 70% falls along the way, while the USD is steadily dropping in value, but more smoothly.  at ~x%/yr. Though that has recently changed to a faster pace.

Anyway.  The thing you have to be ready for are the thoughts of "OMG I made a mistake" when it goes down, and strangely also look out for "WOO HOO!! I AM A GENIUS" when it goes up! Wink

Every time my wife and I look at property in Hawaii it is generally the top oif the most recent cycle.

So I have currently tried to stop doing that... to see if, indeed, it is all my fault every time!

Welcome, and best of luck to us all! Smiley
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