Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImThour]

Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol.  I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right.  I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 

It's all good man, I was just pointing out that I realized my execution of EW was bad.
Deserved haha.

[BitcoinBunny]

I know OT but fuck it made me laugh what an absolute shit show ETH and it's leaders are

https://twitter.com/ethdotorg/status/1485644472880877572



"We've removed all uses of 'Eth2' terminology on http://ethereum.org"

Now no one can say Eth 2.0 will never come, because they don't even call it that anymore. Genius!

You would have thought news like this would most likely have a negative impact on the price:

"You know that thing we have been talking about for over a year, well it ain't happening."

But no, it makes no difference.

Which basically means no one gives a shit about the capacities or reasons of ANY of these shitcoins existing.

Just mere speculation and they follow the Bitcoin trend and scamming cunts like Vatalik are just there to distract people with their copy & paste projects.

[hisslyness]

By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.  

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.

What's that saying...  "A picture is worth a thousand words" or "A picture speaks a thousand words"...

Well, that's got a thousand and four words (1004).. not much more explaining needed!...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

OT
Biden will host CEOs at the White House to promote his stalled Build Back Better bill
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/biden-to-ceos-to-promote-his-stalled-build-back-better-bill-.html

Translation: Biden will sheepishly explain to the 10 elite CEOs why they didn't get their $1T in free money.

[shahzadafzal]

#Bitcoin's annual settlement volume has officially surpassed Visa's.


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1486344035765731329?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol.  I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right.  I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 

It's all good man, I was just pointing out that I realized my execution of EW was bad.
Deserved haha.

I was even taking it as a good joke, ala proudhon and the likes 

[cAPSLOCK]

Hard to believe folks... if you ask me.  That we are actually watching this happen.  Right now.  Even though we all believed it the whole time.  How many times did we all say "If"?

But here's the fly in this particular soup.

Will the country with the worlds reserve currency decide to go the wrong direction with laws or regulations BECAUSE our "enemy" embraces Bitcoin? 

Seems a little too late to me... but I still worry since I live here.


____________________________________________________________________________
Other topic:

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486341512287895553?s=21
Russia…

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486341512287895553?s=21
Russia…

[fr4nkthetank]

"By removing Eth2 terminology, we save all future users from navigating this confusing mental model."

Can't make this shit up.  Once a shitcoin, always a shitcoin.  I still haven't forgiven them for spamming the whole internet with eth propaganda at/after the premined presold unregistered illegal initial security offering

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.   

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.

hahaha i also sent this pic to someone and this was the reply :p

Yes.... Peeps can be quite easily distracted, and even triggered into the relation of various shitcoins to bitcoin, and I am not even going to deny that bitcoin does not have some relations to the various shitcoins - including that some of the public sentiment leads to actions and even the development of financial instruments/vehicles around shitcoins.... so in some sense there could be some ongoing drag upon bitcoin, but also we do see every once in a while such as early 2019 in which shitcoins get punished as fuck while bitcoin goes up.. even if there is a kind of temporary separation, those kinds of price dynamics do happen from time to time - and really don't want to call them too early.. even though currently shitcoins are getting beat up worse than bitcoin, but there could end up being a kind of market realization that some froth needs to be purged and bitcoin is not part of that froth... that would be the smart move of the market.. but the market is not always smart - whether we are talking about distraction into scamcoins, meme coins, ICOs, NFTs.. or whatever other quasi-valueless shitcoin project of the day .. that may well be eligible for a purge in the near term....... not sure if that will affect all of those easily distracted folks.. but surely some of them end up seeing the light when we get such purgenings of shitcoins/shitprojects with a simultaneous pumpening of king daddy.

[cAPSLOCK]

Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  

I believe you are invoking Raja's prophesy.

[OutOfMemory]

Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  

Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.

EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.  

EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So

[JayJuanGee]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?

There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha

On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....

So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1486326197768400899

[OutOfMemory]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?

There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha

On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....

So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.

Sane reasoning there, J.
I am a poker player, so i always try to expect the unexpected, even if against the odds. Since Bitcoin didn't do this (tumbling because of bans and politics) before, this cycle, could as well be longer than those in the past. The odds that Bitcoin will persist are above 99,9% though, just because it's great and fits that narrow gap which fiat can't close, as it is.