Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714533216]

1714533216

[1714533216]

1714533216

[1714533216]

1714533216

[cAPSLOCK]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?

There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha

On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....

So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.

I think the first simple indicator we need to see to determine a top is in is a simple lower low.  Which depending on your interpretation would be somewhere between 29313 and 30k.



I think, unfortunately this is DEFINITELY a non-zero chance scenario. :/  In fact... if we do not see a turnaround from where we are it's a fair certainty.  I feel like this is the type of thing John Madden (RIP) would say.  "For this team to win they are going to need to get the ball down the field, and score!".

Well in this case, for Bitcoin not to go further down, it needs to start going up!

Seems to me there are fundamentals that support the go-up scenario... and there are certain events, and some technical reasons we should be prepared for downity as you like to put it.

Either way I will be fine, though I admit, a third push to a new ATH would be a nifty new thing to happen "this cycle".

[LoyceV]

NYDIG looks like the typical ICO website, that's not very encouraging.
I guess they don't mean the bank allows you to buy Bitcoin and send it to your own address, right? In that case, they're teaching their customers the wrong thing. Paypal did that already.

[El duderino_]

free photo images

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486341512287895553?s=21
Russia…

[ImThour]

Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.

EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday. 

EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So

Thanks Mate! Also, thanks for the link lmao.. was looking for this.
Let's see how it goes.

[cygan]

[cAPSLOCK]

Y'all ready for this???

It's gonna get crazy... FAST... in my humble opinion.  



I bet the IMF is PISSED.  Because they know what's coming.  The game theory part of the whole thing is about to kick in to the EXTREME.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

What caused this? I thought it was still some time left for the Fed meeting  


Edit: Welp, that felt like a shitcoin going 100% down in minutes lmao.

[cAPSLOCK]

BREAKING: The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged for now.

Rumor: 25 basis points each of the next two dates starting March.

So do we buy the rumor or sell the news?  Oh yeah.  I don't do either of those... I hold the waves.

[OutOfMemory]

Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up! 

[OutOfMemory]

Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!  

I am quite risk averse.
That's why i almost only hodl.  
Also, this is the shortest answer to JJG's question about why i am mostly trading small ranges with my micro "play money" stash, he asked about one to two weeks ago. Good that i can put a checkmark to that on my todo list as well.

I'm generally bullish, in case you didn't notice  

[machasm]

Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up! 

Honestly, it seems that price is just waiting for any excuse to act irrationally.
I haven’t sold a Satoshi during this whole downtrend.
Bought a couple of dips and just waiting it out.
I’ve got time and FIAT isn’t getting any better.

[Copetech]

Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.

Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...

[OutOfMemory]

Very rarely have I ever heard so many words used to say nothing at all.
TL;DR
We're doing nothing today but might do something soon.

Side Note:
In light of so many words used in saying nothing...
OpSec - I noticed J1G has been completely absent through this press conference and it's run-up.
Should we start using the abbr. J1P???
Just asking...

Dude, bots may have a real life too!  
Change my mind  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

The news we were rooting for:



Showing a giant middle finger to IMF’s crooks.