Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Copetech]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"? 

By the way, if you have not looked at the BTC price charts recently (out of fear, detachment or for whatever other personal reasons) our current bottom is at $32,951 - nearly 4 days ago as I type this post.

Yesterday (or was it the day before?  the days all mix together sometimes, no?), I had already provided my tentative answer to this question, but I would not mind hearing what other WO posters consider a sufficient UPpity BTC price threshold in order to start to feel a wee bit cocky that the bottom for this correction may well be "in" (sure your might want to account for time, too.. but mostly I am trying to focus on price in this here question with a kind of presumption that the threshold could get crossed in the next 1 hour to 6 months).

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)



Pray tell.  Opinions matters, especially the opinion of uie pooie (I won't even make any exceptions here.. for the sake of inclusivity.. hahahahahaha)

I think your natural bullish bias (I can't blame you and completely understand) seems to be clouding your vision of general sentiment. I'm seeing a lot of peeps who were quite Bullish in August '21 now saying "it's crypto winter, buckle up for the long Bear cycle." Granted sentiment is not EVERYTHING, but it certainly a significant factor! I'm afraid we're going to see a bit lower numbers than $32,951... but I am also pretty certain that there are a lot of Dollar$ waiting to jump in at the high $20k to low $30k mark. So I expect we'll see the price retest the $28k support and find an unexpectedly strong level of new money entering in that area. Then if the right Hopium drops at the right time, we could see a sudden bounce to the low $50k's which could be enough to trigger a FOMO surge combined with a short squeeze. If not, we may drift along sideways a bit more and retest down to $24k-$25k arena. At which time I would certainly hope we'd get enough bounce to trigger a 2x daily candle leading into ano5her Bullish scenario.

So I guess if I was forced into the framenings of your specific (possibly misguided) question, my answer would be somewhere between 6&7... but I just think there are many more factors involved than your scenario allows for...  Dweeb!

[philipma1957]

I would love to see 70k my reason is as follows :

I gave a guarantee that we would do 70 k by may last year.

Some guy with the initials JJG told me I was stubborn to repeat it repeatedly.

So here we are 8 or 9 months later and I am still looking for that guarantee of 70k to not be the worst prediction of all time.

So lets get over that 70k hump. It will mean the end of all the corrections that happened since I predicted that 70k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mpamaegbu]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com

[fr4nkthetank]

9) I view the question differently.  I need some DOWN action, maybe around 28k-31k for a very short time period, say 24-36 hours.  Then I know the UP motion will be in for good.  Assuming the cycle hasn't ended until the next one.  Assuming cycles still exist.  However the drop to 32-33k was very short and that may have been what I was looking for, therefore the UP is confirmed.  So in conclusion, I have no idea.
Also found an interesting quote somewhere : "Proudhon was the master of us all"

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think your natural bullish bias (I can't blame you and completely understand) seems to be clouding your vision of general sentiment. I'm seeing a lot of peeps who were quite Bullish in August '21 now saying "it's crypto winter, buckle up for the long Bear cycle." Granted sentiment is not EVERYTHING, but it certainly a significant factor! I'm afraid we're going to see a bit lower numbers than $32,951... but I am also pretty certain that there are a lot of Dollar$ waiting to jump in at the high $20k to low $30k mark. So I expect we'll see the price retest the $28k support and find an unexpectedly strong level of new money entering in that area. Then if the right Hopium drops at the right time, we could see a sudden bounce to the low $50k's which could be enough to trigger a FOMO surge combined with a short squeeze. If not, we may drift along sideways a bit more and retest down to $24k-$25k arena. At which time I would certainly hope we'd get enough bounce to trigger a 2x daily candle leading into ano5her Bullish scenario.

So I guess if I was forced into the framenings of your specific (possibly misguided) question, my answer would be somewhere between 6&7... but I just think there are many more factors involved than your scenario allows for...  Dweeb!

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you may well have posted before my two above edits... so you are largely fighting the hypothetical in the first paragraph.. and in the meantime calling me names (overly bullish if that could be an insult?... hahahaha)

Your second paragraph at least does go with the question as it is framed.. so fair enough that you may well need in the lower $50ks from here to start to feel that the bottom might be in.

I would love to see 70k my reason is as follows :

I gave a guarantee that we would do 70 k by may last year.

Some guy with the initials JJG told me I was stubborn to repeat it repeatedly.

So here we are 8 or 9 months later and I am still looking for that guarantee of 70k to not be the worst prediction of all time.

So lets get over that 70k hump. It will mean the end of all the corrections that happened since I predicted that 70k.

You are fighting the whole hypothetical and just proclaiming your wishes to get above $70k...

...so sure we might say that you are not really believing that any bottom can be in until we get above $70k.. which hardly seems to be tied to anything beyond a kind of wish.. .. and I had already mentioned to you that there is hardly any difference between $69k and $70k and that we have already reached $69k.. as you already know.. We might speculate that you are somewhat detached from reality, but I doubt anyone would suggest that you do not realize that $69k has already been reached.. but for some perhaps stubborn reason.. you just believe (want to believe) that there is an actual material and substantial difference between $69k and $70k... hahahahahaha.. whatever, you do you.

9) I view the question differently.  I need some DOWN action, maybe around 28k-31k for a very short time period, say 24-36 hours.  Then I know the UP motion will be in for good.  Assuming the cycle hasn't ended until the next one.  Assuming cycles still exist.  However the drop to 32-33k was very short and that may have been what I was looking for, therefore the UP is confirmed.  So in conclusion, I have no idea.
Also found an interesting quote somewhere : "Proudhon was the master of us all"

You were largely my motivation for my second edit, even though I had made my first edit way before you posted your response.

So, I do believe that you are fighting the hypothetical with down before up.


Second, your point about Proudhon is real nonsense. Proudhon has been screaming about down since way before we even breached $10k.. and he goes back years preaching inevitable down... It's pretty lame for anyone to conclude that the mere fact that the price went down should be credited to Proudhon.. who is always saying the same thing and we already know that the price goes up and down (well mostly up in terms of quantity) but probably spends way more time going down in terms of time.. but it pays off way better to be invested into bitcoin rather than not being invested.. merely because BTC prices go up way more than they go down, and there is a certain amount of empirical evidence that there are a few days of the years (pick any year) that you have had better have been in BTC in order to really get the gains..because it goes up and you will not be able to recover if you are not in.. so if you listened to diptwat proudhon, you would likely be under invested in bitcoin.. which is not a place to be, generally speaking.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

By the way, if you have not looked at the BTC price charts recently (out of fear, detachment or for whatever other personal reasons) our current bottom is at $32,951 - nearly 4 days ago as I type this post.

Yesterday (or was it the day before?  the days all mix together sometimes, no?), I had already provided my tentative answer to this question, but I would not mind hearing what other WO posters consider a sufficient UPpity BTC price threshold in order to start to feel a wee bit cocky that the bottom for this correction may well be "in" (sure your might want to account for time, too.. but mostly I am trying to focus on price in this here question with a kind of presumption that the threshold could get crossed in the next 1 hour to 6 months).

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)



Pray tell.  Opinions matters, especially the opinion of uie pooie (I won't even make any exceptions here.. for the sake of inclusivity.. hahahahahaha)


Edit:

Bonus question.  Am I getting to be too presumptuous regarding conditions in which the bottom might be in with my asking the above question?  

Bonus description:  I acknowledge that there are going to be some WO active members here that want to fight with presumptions of the above question, and may well not want to participate in this proposition because they are having trouble accepting any conditions in which the bottom might already be "in"


Edit 2:  After looking at a couple of responses:  I believe that if you proclaim that "we need down before up" then you are fighting the hypothetical, which is largely asking "how much UP" do you need to see before you can conclude that the "bottom is in"  which is already described as $32,951... fight the hypothetical, fight it...

9)

I have this gut feeling we need to retest $33k before any serious climb upwards can happen, or some confirmation of resistance downwards.

EDIT:
Missed "Edit 2" at first read, but OK, I'm fighting the hypothetical.

[modrobert]

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

The Swiss, from the best most private banking system to the worst nanny state oversight in the world in one generation.

How sad.

Yes, I've noticed similar tendencies with ProtonMail (based in Switzerland), trying to bait paywall features in exchange for additional user details (and connection meta data), as if doxxing the French climate activist wasn't enough.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

[...]

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

[...]

I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever.

So, to sum up, my worst-case expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year.

It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, to never fully trust prediction models that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise.

tl;dr: HoDL.

Edit: Added "worst-case" to my reply above, for clarity.

[somac.]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

[...]

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

[...]

I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever.

So, to sum up, my expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year.

It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, never to fully trust prediction models, that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise.

tl;dr: HoDL.

I don't think those deeper dips will happen either. STHs do not have the quantity of coins like they did after the 2017 run and going off the illiquid supply they have already sold off a lot of them. To get down to those deeper levels would require LTH selling, and right now we are not getting that, we actually have the opposite. 50k sounds about right to me as well.

[AlcoHoDL]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

[...]

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

[...]

I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever.

So, to sum up, my expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year.

It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, never to fully trust prediction models, that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise.

tl;dr: HoDL.

I don't think those deeper dips will happen either. STHs do not have the quantity of coins like they did after the 2017 run and going off the illiquid supply they have already sold off a lot of them. To get down to those deeper levels would require LTH selling, and right now we are not getting that, we actually have the opposite. 50k sounds about right to me as well.

Sure, those deeper dips that I mentioned may never happen, and I hope they won't. I just outlined a worst-case scenario that I will not be surprised to see happening. But things can turn out to be much better than this. In any case, I don't think there's anything that can make a hardened LTH sell any amount of corn at these prices. If anything, it's an opportunity to buy and stack more sats, which is something I'm seriously considering lately, even though I feel I have already reached my corn amount target (can this even be said?)!

[somac.]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

[...]

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

[...]

I would go for (6). I feel that getting above $50k would be enough to swing the short-term trend (and not only the spot price) upwards. Mind you, this does not mean that there won't be a deeper dip before this happens. I will not be surprised if price dips in the high-$20k region. I will start to get a little uncomfortable if it dips any lower, i.e., low-$20k or even high-$10k regions, but I don't expect it to get there so easily. I think Vegeta is dead and disintegrated by now, and no magic can wake him up. Ever.

So, to sum up, my expectations are another dip, maybe low-$30k down to high-$20k, and then slow, ant-sized UPpity movements, with the occasional step-function green dildo jumps, taking price up to the $50k region and beyond. Hopefully, it will never dip below $50k after that. If this gets combined with some good FOMO action and some big players making positive moves towards Bitcoin, I can even see price reaching 6 digits within the year.

It's probably going to be a somewhat slow and long journey, certainly longer that what PlanB's S2F model led many of us to expect, and that's OK, since no one can really predict what's going to happen with absolute certainty in these kinds of non-deterministic systems, at least in the short term, like the time scales we're talking about here. It's a lesson for us all, never to fully trust prediction models, that are essentially curve fits of past data, and expect them to also fit the future. Extrapolation can be deceptive more often than not, and can bite you more often than it can help you. What really matters is the long-term trend, and that is clearly UP. That highlighted sentence is all one needs to know, to not worry about any short-term noise.

tl;dr: HoDL.

I don't think those deeper dips will happen either. STHs do not have the quantity of coins like they did after the 2017 run and going off the illiquid supply they have already sold off a lot of them. To get down to those deeper levels would require LTH selling, and right now we are not getting that, we actually have the opposite. 50k sounds about right to me as well.

Sure, those deeper dips that I mentioned may never happen, and I hope they won't. I just outlined a worst-case scenario that I will not be surprised to see happening. But things can turn out to be much better than this. In any case, I don't think there's anything that can make a hardened LTH sell any amount of corn at these prices. If anything, it's an opportunity to buy and stack more sats, which is something I'm seriously considering lately, even though I feel I have already reached my corn amount target (can this even be said?)!

You can never have too much corn.

I reckon we need an event like march 2020 for a big dip, LTHs did sell that I think, but the only reason they have really sold other than that is because prices went high enough. Of course anything can happen, I just prefer it to be in the up direction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

[edited out]

[Edited Out] Dweeb!

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you may well have posted before my two above edits... so you are largely fighting the hypothetical in the first paragraph.. and in the meantime calling me names (overly bullish if that could be an insult?... hahahaha)

Not MY fault you type so slow...
What is that, an IBM Selectric???

[BitcoinBunny]

Mark Twain said it best: Never argue with an idiot. You'll never convince the idiot that you're correct, and bystanders won't be able to tell who's who. Peace.

I would love to know from out experts here if this is bullish or bullish. 🤨

Probably it is the next dip that I'm expecting to happen. I have cash prepared for this last dip. My last 20% of cash for scooping some more stuff and maybe some BTCiTcoin as well, but I'm not a big believer in BTCiTcoin gains anymore. Another 10x is meh for those like me with 2000x .... GO F^CKING BANANAS ON SH!TCOINS !!! BUY ALL THE SH!TCOINS!!! ... (before bankers do ofc.. )

Anyone still believing in shitcoins after the recent dip wiping them almost off the face of the earth must have a mental problem OR is simply trolling which I think you and Proudhon do OR is part of a distract and earn money scam scheme which I think the likes of Raul Pal and many other YouTubers are part of.

It is also CLEAR to see with yet another stablecoin entering the top 10 recently and looking to stay, there is simply no room for shitcoins to even exist beyond penny stock pump and dumping.

This doesn't mean I don't support anyone who can make a quick buck through mining or increasing their BTC stash through swaps.

But let's not kid ourselves on here. There is absolutely NO value in shitcoins and they are time and time again proven to be a terrible long term investment compared to BTC.

With only 3 shitcoins out of the 19 in the top 20 from 2017 still in the top 20 now it is clear to see they are 95% utter garbage (pump and dump and forget) and maybe 5% luck (distraction campaigns that last).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]