Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Oh yea, let's bring the old charts where I was wrong as I was learning TA (which no one can be perfect in)
And it went up by 96% before falling down, too bad right.

And simply ignore the charts where I was right 

Let's stick with your current prediction.. who gives any shits about your past.

Right now, you are saying that there are high odds that the BTC price needs to meet the 200 Week moving average before it will be able to move up, and you are saying that such meeting of spot price and the 200-week moving average may well take a few months to play out.   So you are largely saying that we have good odds of reaching $24k within 3-6 months. How confident are you?  Are you confident enough to place a bet?  Does not have to be for a large amount and we can get some mutually agreeable member to escrow it... we just have to figure out the terms.. maybe the parameters?  Maybe you would say $24k before $46k?  or something like that?  Of course, we could pick different price points and timelines that might help to align with confidence levels.  You talk like you have a lot of confidence in 24K.. something like quite a bit more than 80%?   Am I reading you wrong?  Are you not that confident? 

By the way, many guys run away like scared little rabbits when they actually have to back up their outrageous claims with any kind of bet that would attempt to capture their outrageous claims within the terms of a bet (and for sure it does not even have to be large amounts.. (10k to 500k satoshis could sufficiently be in the ballpark of establishing bet terms).. You have already run away or avoided or ignored bet terms at least once, so I doubt that you are even close to actually wanting to back up your claims with some kind of skin in the game and you are likely going to walk back your supposed level of confidence... while you are supposedly learning and pumping out various kinds of pie in the sky theoretical bullshit for quite a few months.. while you are supposedly "learning."

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[cAPSLOCK]

Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want?   I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?

This is most certainly true!  In fact, I think it is fairly common to COMPLETELY twist what we want to believe with what we think will happen.  In the area of markets, this is one thing all the prophets I admire have in common.  That they know how to separate their emotions from their view of reality.  The tendency to conflate ones wishes and fears with ones beliefs is a thing folks MUST overcome to be successful.  And it can be expressed negatively and positively.

For example.  I think a common mistake people MIGHT be making right now is based in a fear of repeating the last 4 years (again).  My conversation with LFC is in this area.  Although I think his belief has a rational basis I am also aware that the adherance of this belief may be because of fear.  Just as the rejection of this belief may be because of a bias to bullishness.

Around here we all know that it is possible to let our fears/hopes get the better of us.  Mindrust is often cited.  And people have bet the whole farm (or at least a BIG BARN) on an alt with a narrative that resonates for them and lost nearly everything as well.  A couple famous WO members come to mind here, but I will refrain from naming them out of respect.

So far as the current circumstances go?  I am having a hard time separating the likely scenarios from the ones I want (or am afraid of).  We are currently at a real crossroads, in a sense.  Hanging out right above making a new low.  And this "cycle" has already been different in that it had a double top.  Not two peaks, but a second peak just a little above the first.  That is unique.  If we are to fall from here, then we will never have really had the typical "blow off top".  I personally think an 80% decline is hard to imagine in the absence of a blow off top.  But who knows?

The positive scenario is we either make a higher low, or we spike lower but still bounce.  Then we make a third top.  I also think it would make sense for the market to continue to oscillate at a higher frequency and smaller bandwidth.  Shorter waves without blow offs and winters.  +175% -45% and so on biased to the upside.  Perhaps there are still some halfing related effects, but I expect them to reduce.

The above is where my money is. 

Is it what I *want* to happen?  Well sort of, yes.  I would not mind the crazy moon rocket too, but I also would not miss the winters.

Is it what logic and reason makes me think is going to happen avoiding emotion?  Sort of, yes.  I do think it is a narrative that actually MAKES SENSE. And could be the way things unfold.

Do I feel strongly about it?  No.

But here's to trains rockets and Carolina for us all... one way or the other.

[Paashaas]

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486669010871664643?s=21

With putin's backing, it's as good as done

Makes you wonder, this action by Putin. I wonder if they'll secretly set up huge mining farms using renewable energy. They’ll keep it all under the radar in preparation for the next bull run & onwards. If Putin is on board it means Russia will be big players in the future of bitcoin.

I think that there had been a decent amount of concern that Russia had been getting some amount of pressure to go along with China's seeming approach to the matter, and of course, having a decent amount of variance from China does tend to show that Russia is thinking about the bitcoin and mining matter differently from China - even though both of those countries have a pretty long and strong track record of flip flopping on the topic of bitcoin in strong and seemingly ongoing contradictory ways...

Some variation of the Byzantine general's problem playing out in front of us, no?... there is a certain amount of inability to trust various adversaries... but then even  when the adversaries engage in various maneuvers to cheat, they might end up hurting themselves, but they do not really hurt bitcoin in any kind of meaningful or substantial way.  Bitcoin chugs along and kind of expects the various players to engage in maneuvers that are hostile and contradictory to other players.. and in the end.. each player has to choose whether to play or to sit it out.. and in this case, the opposite of Wargames, the ONLY winning move is actually to play, if you choose not to play, you are going to find yourself in a much worse place 4-10 years down the road (even if you might not be able to recognize your worser position while you are developing it by not playing).

[cAPSLOCK]

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

[d_eddie]

These rules of course only apply if you don't own the keys to your coin. In which case, we all know they're not your coins anyway.

I challenge Switzerland or Singapore to block me from moving coins from MY wallet.

[Torque]

OT
Literal proof that the future that TPTB want is to nickel-and-dime your life away with subscriptions for every damn little thing:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/44036/ford-ceo-says-heated-seat-subscriptions-unlikely

Whenever they say "unlikely", it means "we're thinking about it so probably yeah at some point".

[JayJuanGee]

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.

I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

I just don't see how a winter lasting to 2025 is even remotely possible.

Possible, but decently low odds for the great list of reasons that you provided plus some other "reasons" that are not needed to be listed.. not trying to be coy or to suggest that I know something.. but there are seven network effects that continue to build.. ongoingly... and they have snowballing and contagious effects.

[philipma1957]

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

it is good news.

it means along with LN and trezor swiss protocol  btc will be more and more co opted into the banking system

kyc will rule with in ten years.

no such thing as new hidden coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.

I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.

Whoaza!!!!!!   That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable  - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness.  

I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish" (so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).

Alright, I made a TA stating we will be at 36k back in Sept 2021 and you wrote a lot of shit and here we are, at 36k. You called me a dweeb lmao.

I do it for myself and for anyone who gives a shit, if you don't ignore it.

Just stop it with your hatred towards me in every post I do in this thread. Enough mate.

I repeat, I do it for myself, I post it for those who cares. If you don't, ignore it and move ahead.

Cheers.

[savetherainforest]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486669010871664643?s=21

With putin's backing, it's as good as done

Makes you wonder, this action by Putin. I wonder if they'll secretly set up huge mining farms using renewable energy. They’ll keep it all under the radar in preparation for the next bull run & onwards. If Putin is on board it means Russia will be big players in the future of bitcoin.

Russia will be excluded and devalued.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

My bad however calling my ideas/my thoughts BS is not cool as well.

I think your TA is complete BS, but then again...I think all TA is complete BS. So meh.

Also some of old timers are quite amused when you TA guys follow the completely predictable pattern of predicting much higher highs during a bull run, and insta flipping to predicting much lower lows during a downturn. Such herd mentality.

Just a repost of this meme

I think if someone wants to post and share there analyses or thoughts, the Dude abide 

Just from my point of view I also don't believe in TA to much, though tbh I do enjoy TA when we are going up, the astronomic things in those periods are truly enjoyable...

[fillippone]

Not to nitpick, but this picture is rubbish.

• There was no halving in 2008, actually, there wasn't even a network in 2008 as the bitcoin network started on January 3rd 2009.
• First halving is 2012 and halved reward from 50 to 25.
• There will be 32 halving, not 33.
• This image added 2008 halving, but also skipped one: the list drop from 2128-4 sats to 2132-1 sats (??)

Source.


Anyway, I like halvings.

[Biodom]

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.

I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.

Whoaza!!!!!!   That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable  - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness.  

I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish" (so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).

Alright, I made a TA stating we will be at 36k back in Sept 2021 and you wrote a lot of shit and here we are, at 36k. You called me a dweeb lmao.

I do it for myself and for anyone who gives a shit, if you don't ignore it.

Just stop it with your hatred towards me in every post I do in this thread. Enough mate.

I repeat, I do it for myself, I post it for those who cares. If you don't, ignore it and move ahead.

Cheers.

he/she meant it "lovingly"...if you did not notice, anyone with any kind of prediction is a "dweeb" to him/her.
sure..post 'em (i like looking at TA, but almost never believe any of TA "predictions"), just don't do a random assortment (between 1k and 36K), stick to a particular theme.

[Biodom]

gas stoves leak methane...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/climate/gas-stoves-methane-emissions.html

OMG, stop all cooking, you bastards..also, switch off those pesky skyscraper and Christmas lights when you are at it.

btw, not a prediction, but we are in a retest mode now.

[JayJuanGee]

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.

I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA

You can deem what you are doing as "trying to do TA" but it hardly seems genuine, even though a few guys seem to be fooled by your holding yourself out as supposed "genuine."  Your historical posts defy such claims to actual genuineness.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.

Whoaza!!!!!!   That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable  - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness.  

I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish" (so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).

Alright, I made a TA stating we will be at 36k back in Sept 2021 and you wrote a lot of shit and here we are, at 36k. You called me a dweeb lmao.

First I removed the bold from your response post in my response because it seems to have no purpose, except to show your emotionalisms regarding the topic.

Second, a discussion of my post and/or my bet proposal in September 2021 would have been appropriate, but instead you ignored and/or ran away like the disingenuine dweeb that you seem to be. By the way, we have had a lot of interactions, and you have been filled with a lot of disingenuineness - but only recently getting more emboldened, no?  here's one of our interactions from August 2021.

Third, if you want to attempt to redeem yourself, you should attempt to do that in a timely manner rather than engaging in self-serving selective spins 5 months later.. or whatever other of your previous supposed prophecies that you would like to highlight.

I do it for myself and for anyone who gives a shit, if you don't ignore it.

Fair enough... but if you are publishing in this thread, then you have opened up your lil selfie (and your self-pleasures) to public commentary, whether from yours truly or anyone else.  Yes, each of us have a right to ignore your masterbatory nonsense, but if you are engaging in such behaviors in this thread, I don't see what good purpose would be served to just allow you to post without commentary.. especially when you are frequently wrong, misleading and really seeming to want go beyond just the accomplishment of self-pleasures in your contents.

Just stop it with your hatred towards me in every post I do in this thread. Enough mate.

I doubt anyone is hating you, and also I doubt that your commanding of the stoppenings of others is going to have much of an effect in terms of accomplishing your goals to be able to post your nonsense without push back - especially from others who seem to have way more knowledge, insight and appreciation of bitcoin fundamentals and price dynamics than you.

I repeat, I do it for myself, I post it for those who cares. If you don't, ignore it and move ahead.

Cheers.

Yes.. you are repeating.. and I already addressed these points.

Ok.  In regards to your present predictions about the BTC price meeting the 200-week moving average in the $24k territory... you should be attempting to respond to my earlier bet proposal post, so we are able to see the extent to which you stand behind your seemingly nonsensical and disingenuine claims... I can already see that you are attempting to weasel out of the whole matter by avoiding the topic.

[El duderino_]

[ImThour]

Mark Twain said it best: Never argue with an idiot. You'll never convince the idiot that you're correct, and bystanders won't be able to tell who's who. Peace.

I would love to know from out experts here if this is bullish or bullish. 🤨