Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aysg76]

Another one of those IMF related stuff and they are scared that if world adopts to bitcoin then who would care about them :

[1714770635]

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[1714770635]

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[1714770635]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitmover]

I found this image very bullish.

25 fold? A 2-5 fold is amazing already

from https://ark-invest.com/

[somac.]

I found this image very bullish.

25 fold? A 2-5 fold is amazing already

from https://ark-invest.com/

Not that I'm saying they're wrong but ark is really just a flavor of the month fund. They rose to prominance quickly and have gone to shit quickly as well. I don't think much of their analysis or their fund.

On another note the almost perfect correlation with the stock market absolutely sucks, if anything brings us down well into the 20s it will be this. Stupid of course, but if anything we've learnt over the past 2 years it's that this world is full of stupid. I hold out hope that one day people will realise that BTC is the solution to all crap and then rather fleeing to the USD (lol) they'll flee to BTC.

[greensheep]

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".

2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough

3) Getting above $40k

4) Getting above $42k

5) Getting above $46k

6) Getting above $50k

7) Getting above $55k

8.) Getting above $62k

9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

4) 40K-44K broken and re-tested

[Farmer Bill]

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

The Swiss, from the best most private banking system to the worst nanny state oversight in the world in one generation.

How sad.

Yes, I've noticed similar tendencies with ProtonMail (based in Switzerland), trying to bait paywall features in exchange for additional user details (and connection meta data), as if doxxing the French climate activist wasn't enough.

That case certainly sucks and incurred the wrath of many Protonmail users.
At least he was informed in advance of the request by French Police enforced by Swiss Courts.
His encrypted email account was not compromised the contents not revealed.
His VPN activity was not available, Swiss law does not require VPN logs to be kept.
There is a ProtonMail onion service for those requiring increased security.
You can sign up (pseudo) anonymously and upgrade the account without revealing personal details by paying with Bitcoin.

ProtonMail is reasonably good compared to the offerings (and security) of the major email services offered in N America, Europe and Australia, who hand over your unencrypted data to law enforcement without any court warrant or to any commercial business for a fee. However ProtonMail have to operate in the real world bound by ever increasing draconian surveillance laws.

Trezor going down the toilet with their Swiss Travel Rule Protocol.

In other news Bitcoin keeping us guessing as to the next move in price.








 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

It's also great that their logo looks like a double top, too many of those lately.

[cAPSLOCK]

How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?  

By the way, if you have not looked at the BTC price charts recently (out of fear, detachment or for whatever other personal reasons) our current bottom is at $32,951 - nearly 4 days ago as I type this post.

Yesterday (or was it the day before?  the days all mix together sometimes, no?), I had already provided my tentative answer to this question, but I would not mind hearing what other WO posters consider a sufficient UPpity BTC price threshold in order to start to feel a wee bit cocky that the bottom for this correction may well be "in" (sure your might want to account for time, too.. but mostly I am trying to focus on price in this here question with a kind of presumption that the threshold could get crossed in the next 1 hour to 6 months).

Here are the response options:

1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".
2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough
3) Getting above $40k
4) Getting above $42k
5) Getting above $46k
6) Getting above $50k
7) Getting above $55k
8.) Getting above $62k
9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)

Pray tell.  Opinions matters, especially the opinion of uie pooie (I won't even make any exceptions here.. for the sake of inclusivity.. hahahahahaha)

Edit:
Bonus question.  Am I getting to be too presumptuous regarding conditions in which the bottom might be in with my asking the above question?  
Bonus description:  I acknowledge that there are going to be some WO active members here that want to fight with presumptions of the above question, and may well not want to participate in this proposition because they are having trouble accepting any conditions in which the bottom might already be "in"

Edit 2:  After looking at a couple of responses:  I believe that if you proclaim that "we need down before up" then you are fighting the hypothetical, and this hypothetical that I present is largely presuming up and asking "how much UP" do you need to see before you can conclude that the "bottom is in"  which current bottom is already described as $32,951...
I see the tendency to fight the hypothetical, fight it...

This is a fun question...  And my first answer was already disallowed since in this context I do not really think in "up" as much as end of down.  So I am one of the ones that would like to see a sharp V shaped decisive bounce.

Another possibly annoying tendency will be that I do not really have a "point at which" but rather a range where the confidence begins increasing to a place where it is fairly strong.  So I will give that range with a brief explanation.  AS WELL AS A PICTURE!  WOO!


So I will start by assuming the last V shaped plunge was our decisive bounce, even though I do not feel it had exactly that 3/12/20 sort of vibe I would dump the truck into (like I did back then).

Since the top we have created a fairly clear downward channel.  I would like to see us:

1. ~40k  Break out of that channel at which point hope begins.
2. ~43.2 Overcome the most recent top channel rejection at which point hope is strengthening
3. ~52k  Where cAPS feels fairly positive.

So translating that into the JJG chart I would see two ways to pinpoint it:

1.  An Average which looks to be about your #5 @~46k
2.  The top which corresponds with your #7 @ >52k

So ultimately I pick 52k I guess...  These are also somewhat moving targets.  And I think the fundamental landscape is also going to potentially change things.  For example Biden's scary "National Security" proclamation is both incredibly bullish (this is a biggest boss fight of them all, in my humble opinion) and scary.  Depending on the USGvmt actions a big old bucket of water might be thrown on the fire of any rally...  Then things will move around in time and levels... but ultimately Bitcoin still wins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

OT: I finally read someone else's thoughts on the Fed and the stonk market that were so exacting to mine, that I could have written the same thing only with different words. He completely nailed it.

Via deadhobo on zerohedge

"I don't understand why this appears so complicated to others. The financial markets follow one basic rule:

Add Liquidity and Prices Rise, Remove Liquidity and Prices Fall.

That's it. That's the big secret.

The puzzlement is "What causes liquidity to rise and fall so that the prices of financial assets are affected?"

The answer is "algos, market makers, and others who control most of the daily transactions."

The big lie is "Prices are being carried forward, the stock market discounts everything instantly, or the market digests everything, or fill in the blank _________________________."

Algos run the market. Fed stimulus liquidity fed the algos into pumping prices higher and higher. NONE of the liquidity added so far is gone, in fact, more has been added. New liquidity won't stop for another month and interest rates will rise about 1% over the next 12 months at most. (In fact, the Fed added so much liquidity that massive amounts of Reverse Repos were needed on top of IOER to sop it up, meaning that even the algos couldn't use it all.)

So, what's causing the big fall? Algos, market makers, and others who do that job. Covid stimulus caused a big unsustainable bubble. Algos can not make much money at a perpetual top. Volatility is needed for them to fleece the participants. The end of stimulus with slowly rising rates provides a magnificent cover story for a big big fall, which is needed so algos can once again drive prices higher and make lots of money all over again.

Where is the bottom? My guess is the bottom of the channel on a log chart of the S&P that covers perhaps the last 10 years. This is where prices would be if Covid never happened. That's about 12% more. BTFD. Also, this drop will be fast, like all other algo driven drops. Over by mid-February.  Algos don't like to be front run so fast means fast. Then, a gradual worry wall climb, just the same as every other recovery in recent memory.

A minor exception in the timing is the almost required massive face ripping short squeeze. Shorts always appear to fall for this. I don't get it.

FYI, this was predictable months ago. Timing is everything. The general level of financial prices must have a respectable recovery by year's end to keep selling stocks for the long run. It can be volatile, but not too volatile. It's salesmanship. Prices need to look 'all natural'.

(Cash is king always in these cases, but a reliable debt fund with a short duration can work if you feel bold. Share prices will fall, of course, but income will be steady monthly. Rates will rise over time causing income to also rise, and the share price will recover eventually, possibly to your entry point or beyond. With a good fund, you will end up ahead unless you sell at a bad time. Buy and hold actually works.)"

So how does this translate to the Bitcoin market? The stonk market could drop maybe another 10-12% at most, before the algos reverse and start buying up everything again. All the selling will be over by March at the latest. The Fed might raise rates 25 bp or 50 bp at most, then you won't see another hike this year. 3 months of downity, followed by 9 months of straight uppity. After March the markets will climb a "wall of worry" for the rest of the year, to be in the black again by EOY. Because they HAVE to eek out a profit this year, all by design. And when I say eek out, I mean they have to be up +10-12% EOY from the Feb/Mar lows in order to make profit and beat inflation.

Bitcoin will somewhat follow this pattern, whether we like it or not. But volatility will be much higher than the stonk market.

[cygan]

Satoshi Nakamoto bless america

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

ImThour back with his shit TA 

3 Support Levels:
- Trendline Support
- $35.5k
- $33k

3 Resistance Levels:
- $38.5k
- Trendline Resistance
- $43k

Prediction (Some people hate this part IKR):
CASE 1 : If we break the Support Trendline, we reach at Support 2 i.e. $35.5k
CASE 2 : If we break the Resistance 1 i.e. $38.5k, we reach at Resistance Trendline

Have a good eve!

[OutOfMemory]

Speaking of TA, did Gyrsur abandon the WO?

EDIT: ImThour, i don't hate your TA, but Ellioth-ish $800? C'mon! This must have been satire!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Wow.  This is extremely bad news IMHO...

Trezor Adopts Swiss Travel Rule Protocol for Private Crypto Wallets

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/01/27/trezor-adopts-swiss-travel-rule-protocol-for-private-crypto-wallets/

The Swiss, from the best most private banking system to the worst nanny state oversight in the world in one generation.

How sad.

Yes, I've noticed similar tendencies with ProtonMail (based in Switzerland), trying to bait paywall features in exchange for additional user details (and connection meta data), as if doxxing the French climate activist wasn't enough.

That case certainly sucks and incurred the wrath of many Protonmail users.
At least he was informed in advance of the request by French Police enforced by Swiss Courts.
His encrypted email account was not compromised the contents not revealed.
His VPN activity was not available, Swiss law does not require VPN logs to be kept.
There is a ProtonMail onion service for those requiring increased security.
You can sign up (pseudo) anonymously and upgrade the account without revealing personal details by paying with Bitcoin.

ProtonMail is reasonably good compared to the offerings (and security) of the major email services offered in N America, Europe and Australia, who hand over your unencrypted data to law enforcement without any court warrant or to any commercial business for a fee. However ProtonMail have to operate in the real world bound by ever increasing draconian surveillance laws.

Trezor going down the toilet with their Swiss Travel Rule Protocol.

In other news Bitcoin keeping us guessing as to the next move in price.

After careful consideration of recent feedback, we will be removing Address Ownership Proof Protocol (AOPP) in the next Trezor Suite update. The relevant pull request has already been submitted on GitHub.

https://blog.trezor.io/a-decision-on-aopp-789540c2930b?gi=35823dfa7ebf