Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

That CME Bitcoin January Futures contracts got closed today, right?
Wouldn't be too surprised if BTC volume will magically grow by about the amount that was needed to keep the price lower in the last two days via selling.
I'm tempted to start trading every end-of-futures-contract, which should be one of the most successful ways to end this obvious shitfuckery  

... is it just a coincidence the late October '21 arrival of bitcoin futures ETF coincided with most recent ATH??

.... same thing happened in dec 2017 when first btc futures contract opened on CME, although admittedly btc was dramatically overbought at the time

[marcus_of_augustus]

...
Not sure what happened here but no TA is shit TA... well except for the proudhon's "Bitcoin going to zero" troll TA... 

... he was spreading around BS like you do much of the time, you probably would have your idiot cool glasses emoji for it

[Hueristic]

Now this is a better post than sub 1k fud!

Not telling you what to post, just saying.

[Tweak25]

https://twitter.com/FossGregfoss/status/1487195845099507712?cxt=HHwWgMC-qbuvyqMpAAAA

Que?

Is Foss among us?

[savetherainforest]

Mark Twain said it best: Never argue with an idiot. You'll never convince the idiot that you're correct, and bystanders won't be able to tell who's who. Peace.

I would love to know from out experts here if this is bullish or bullish. 🤨

Probably it is the next dip that I'm expecting to happen. I have cash prepared for this last dip. My last 20% of cash for scooping some more stuff and maybe some BTCiTcoin as well, but I'm not a big believer in BTCiTcoin gains anymore. Another 10x is meh for those like me with 2000x .... GO F^CKING BANANAS ON SH!TCOINS !!! BUY ALL THE SH!TCOINS!!! ... (before bankers do ofc.. )

Anyone still believing in shitcoins after the recent dip wiping them almost off the face of the earth must have a mental problem OR is simply trolling which I think you and Proudhon do OR is part of a distract and earn money scam scheme which I think the likes of Raul Pal and many other YouTubers are part of.

It is also CLEAR to see with yet another stablecoin entering the top 10 recently and looking to stay, there is simply no room for shitcoins to even exist beyond penny stock pump and dumping.

This doesn't mean I don't support anyone who can make a quick buck through mining or increasing their BTC stash through swaps.

But let's not kid ourselves on here. There is absolutely NO value in shitcoins and they are time and time again proven to be a terrible long term investment compared to BTC.

With only 3 shitcoins out of the 19 in the top 20 from 2017 still in the top 20 now it is clear to see they are 95% utter garbage (pump and dump and forget) and maybe 5% luck (distraction campaigns that last).

Look.. the only thing with BTCiTcoin is that it has some supply trapped on ATM's that needs to always be liquid. That makes a part of the supply "not-active-status", that means it is not being trade, that means it has no participation on the market, aka 'it is not being dumped on opportunity swings'. But, as soon as some sh!tcoin gets adoption and is being trapped trough the same mechanism of ppl having it as 'liquidity' on PC's / devices / ATM's, the price will go up in value and no one will not want to trade on it as much. So.. you think about that.      
And besides that, think of it in another way: "Bitcoin is not supposed to be used as a currency."  ,.. You basically can't have 2-3 million transactions per second just for coffee orders at your local coffee shop.
BTCiTcoin is supposed to be kept locked in a safe and not be used.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AverageGlabella]

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

I always find it a bit off-putting when people brag about how many coins they own or have just bought (not to mention the security issues involving potential visits from guys with wrenches demanding your mnemonic seed). Why advertise this?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

OT: A weird story:

https://decrypt.co/91476/ethereum-vitalik-buterin-get-back-100m-donated-shib

Is this some kind of game to them? I send you 10, you send me one back..lol
VB is now a biotech adviser? maybe it is erroneously reported, but i find the whole story strange, to put it mildly.
Before there was a story how he was doing that 'sending' using lots of precautions, but if you are sending to a truly burned address, why all the precautions?

[JayJuanGee]

That CME Bitcoin January Futures contracts got closed today, right?
Wouldn't be too surprised if BTC volume will magically grow by about the amount that was needed to keep the price lower in the last two days via selling.
I'm tempted to start trading every end-of-futures-contract, which should be one of the most successful ways to end this obvious shitfuckery  

With such playing around, you might end up ending ur lil selfie first.

Seems better to just have a system.. and yeah..  if you want to attempt to counter-balance some seeming patterns that you see, you might be successful - until you are not, so hopefully you would not be playing with too much value in such gambling endeavors.

https://twitter.com/FossGregfoss/status/1487195845099507712?cxt=HHwWgMC-qbuvyqMpAAAA

Que?

Is Foss among us?

I am pretty sure that Foss has not been into bitcoin for very long.. maybe a few years at most, but he is quite an asset to the space with his appearances on several podcasts in the past year or so... He is quite articulate and coherent - even though he may well be provocative and argumentative... He surely seems to understand the value proposition of bitcoin - and was a pretty quick study, due to his involvement in traditional financial circles that involve quite a bit of study and analysis various macro money dynamics for around 30 years prior to coming to bitcoin.

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

Well, even if you do not have 29 bitcoins currently, in about 6-12 years, it is quite likely that 0.29 BTC will have a similar feeling to what 29 bitcoin has today... of course, no guarantees.. and of course, if it takes as long as 12 years, each of us will be 12 years older too.. so it is not always easy to defer gratification for that long....    Plugging my fuck you status trajectory.

By the way, currently 29 BTC is about 1/3 of fuck you status... In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. again no guarantees.. but good to attempt to prepare for these kinds of seeming eventualities, even if it seems to be taking quite a bit of time for some of the concepts of BTC to really sink in for a large number of folks.. so we are still quite early in bitcoin's journey and increasing influences in the world.

Another by the way, Portnoy has gotten pretty rich through various businesses that he has built in the past several years, but he has also screwed up with bitcoin several times already.  Whether he is starting to "get bitcoin" is still to be understood.  He seems to be unable to control his various gambling tendencies and to play around with an asset like bitcoin in terms of trading it, rather than treating it as a long play.., which likely shows that he still does not get it, and he will most likely cash out upon any kind of mediocre profits.. but hey, you never know, some of the smarter than everyone else gamblers, like Portnoy, are going to end up learning about the value of accumulate and HODL.. sooner or later.. sooner or later.. and, you AverageGlabella, have gotten convinced of bitcoin before some of these traditionally rich folks, including Portnoy... because he still does not seem to get it.

[hisslyness]

ImThour back with his shit TA  

3 Support Levels:
- Trendline Support
- $35.5k
- $33k

3 Resistance Levels:
- $38.5k
- Trendline Resistance
- $43k

Prediction (Some people hate this part IKR):
CASE 1 : If we break the Support Trendline, we reach at Support 2 i.e. $35.5k
CASE 2 : If we break the Resistance 1 i.e. $38.5k, we reach at Resistance Trendline

Have a good eve!

If we hit this price we're going below, but if we hit this price we're going above.

Your right about one thing! You're back with SHIT TA!

My first TA, "if Bitcoin hit $40,000.00 then the price of Bitcoin will be $40,000.00!" (chart to come later)

[Rockbox1]

Well in the past few years, whenever the MSM would go big on talking positively about Bitcoin on live TV in order to raise awareness (e.g., Mike Novogratz being trotted out to wax love for Bitcoin, the Winklevii being interviewed about Bitcoin, an SNL comedy skit about Bitcoin, Ellen talking about Bitcoin on her talk show, Elon Musk on SNL talking about Bitcoin and Doge), it would be right before a massive bull trap incoming. That's always been part of the whale insider playbook. They just love to trap the n00bs.

[/quote]

Torque...called the top.

[Biodom]

@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "

maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tanitel]

please coordinate the actions of regulators !

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/biden-administration-to-regulate-bitcoin-as-a-matter-of-national-security%3A-report

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "

maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year.  I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."

Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021..  (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022.   It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation