Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[modrobert]

@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "

maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year.  I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."

Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021..  (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022.   It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios. 

Although the rebel in me likes the idea of "fuck you status" it still has the intrinsic problem of being related to "money" in this context, to me status comes from who you are based on your actions, backing your claims, admitting mistakes, where the value is measured in truth and integrity.

[hisslyness]

arizona is the next el salvador

Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?

[somac.]

arizona is the next el salvador

Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?

Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.

Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

arizona is the next el salvador

Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?

Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.

Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.

can you imagine all the future fuckwits like future CSW or future Roger yapping in their ears!.. "we're the real slim shady!" what a nightmare that would be!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

That idiot should have waited for that dip that is happening today or tomorrow, and then to have bought.    

[ivomm]

And I thought 48K was boring. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

The mother of all pumps in one hour tbc.

[savetherainforest]

The mother of all pumps in one hour tbc.

I like your wishful thinking, but it's still woobly-uoobly-clumsy.  

[AverageGlabella]

Well, even if you do not have 29 bitcoins currently, in about 6-12 years, it is quite likely that 0.29 BTC will have a similar feeling to what 29 bitcoin has today... of course, no guarantees.. and of course, if it takes as long as 12 years, each of us will be 12 years older too.. so it is not always easy to defer gratification for that long....    Plugging my fuck you status trajectory.

By the way, currently 29 BTC is about 1/3 of fuck you status... In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. again no guarantees.. but good to attempt to prepare for these kinds of seeming eventualities, even if it seems to be taking quite a bit of time for some of the concepts of BTC to really sink in for a large number of folks.. so we are still quite early in bitcoin's journey and increasing influences in the world.

Another by the way, Portnoy has gotten pretty rich through various businesses that he has built in the past several years, but he has also screwed up with bitcoin several times already.  Whether he is starting to "get bitcoin" is still to be understood.  He seems to be unable to control his various gambling tendencies and to play around with an asset like bitcoin in terms of trading it, rather than treating it as a long play.., which likely shows that he still does not get it, and he will most likely cash out upon any kind of mediocre profits.. but hey, you never know, some of the smarter than everyone else gamblers, like Portnoy, are going to end up learning about the value of accumulate and HODL.. sooner or later.. sooner or later.. and, you AverageGlabella, have gotten convinced of bitcoin before some of these traditionally rich folks, including Portnoy... because he still does not seem to get it.

I concur I simply want to do something that would awaken individuals of the world since everybody whines about banks they then at that point remove their cash from the bank and conceal it in cash. I have heard individuals grumble about the interest rates of banks then they take out their money and put it into cash feeling that they are in an ideal situation yet they never fret about inflation and how inflation is keeping everybody including them poor.

Do you have any ideas how we can convince the population quicker that Bitcoin is the answer they have been looking for?

[bitcoinPsycho]

The mother of all pumps in one hour tbc.

I like your wishful thinking, but it's still woobly-uoobly-clumsy.  

Ha ha this is my latest TA




As you can see bitcoin is fucking mental  

[Torque]

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

Paper hands Portnoy will probably panic sell it all at the next -5% drop.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

arizona is the next el salvador

Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?

Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.

Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.

can you imagine all the future fuckwits like future CSW or future Roger yapping in their ears!.. "we're the real slim shady!" what a nightmare that would be!

While I like the proposal, no way this bill will get approved.
And even in the case this bill origin a law, I bet the federal government will have something to say, probably vetoing.
I am not an US lawyer, but I hardly doubt any national Us state can legiferate on something even remotely linked to money.

Happy someone in the us put forward this proposal, just to say “Hey! You have been warned!”

[El duderino_]

Dammit just noticed .... Running behind the merit count with fillippone...

damn what am I gonna do? Pee, Food?, Eeeeuhm ...

Naaaah GG @fillippone.