Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

Even though it did seem to end up working out pretty well for Elwar, I had thought that it was a bit of a step too far (at least for how I was considering the whole bitcoin matter at the time, and surely, I had already been pretty heavily investing into BTC in 2014 and even a bit more than I wanted in 2015, so by the time 2016 came, I was not really feeling like doing any large sum injections into BTC but instead sticking with more modest means of employing ongoing DCA type accumulations of BTC.. rather than adding high amounts of lump sums).. but of course, none of us know the exact circumstances of other people including their finances and they psychology.. and even in this case some particulars that he may well have been weighing regarding his then location, and it did seem that Elwar had gotten into a mode (at that time) that he was working on being more mobile anyhow, so sometimes there might not be any kind of reason to stay in one place merely for owning a home there.. and surely, circumstances of job and family could vary from person to person, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Your response shows both your hostility and your ongoing desire to underappreciate bitcoin's historical bullish performance that is likely continuing into the future.

A little bit of sarcasm doesn't help I guess. Also, I am also bullish for the long term, there is no problem trying to predict/guess a good buying spot in short term. Won't hurt anyone.

Where we are in our bitcoin accumulation journey is likely going to affect the various strategies that we might attempt to employ.

Even though I am a pretty big believer in BTC accumulation strategies that mostly emphasize DCAing, I have no problem when guys figure out various ways to buy on dips and also to lump sum invest (which might employ some combination of strategies of DCA'ing and buying on dips).. .and so even with the buying on dips and lump sum investing I consider them to be ways to supplement DCA'ing strategies - which is likely the best strategy in a lot of cases. 

I am not much of an enthusiast towards the employment of a variety of BTC trading strategies if those are meant to be used to accumulate more BTC, absent if the trader might already have gotten to decently high BTC accumulation levels and/or profitability or that such trader is merely playing around with small portions of his/her BTC portfolio.

In other words, I am a pretty big advocate of attempting to employ more straight-forward means of merely buying BTC and HODL BTC in order to accumulate and preserve capital, and I don't really believe in selling BTC to buy back lower.. because it tends to be too risky and also has a lot of tendencies to not sufficiently emphasizing the preservation of BTC principle - however, once a person may well have gotten to pretty high BTC accumulation and/or profitability levels, I have no problem with selling small amounts on the way up as a means to provide a kind of insurance in case the BTC price falls back down, but those strategies emphasize a kind of insurance aspect rather than a primary means to accumulate more BTC...

By the way, another thing to consider once accumulating a good amount of BTC is just how much BTC to sell at various points on the way up.. There is a good thread about considering how to possibly skim off profits (referred to as raking).. which might be helpful for some members who want to consider how to think through and plan to establish their own mindset in the direction of when to sell, how much to sell and why to sell.

(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Another irritating angle can be when guys are seeming to talk their book rather than really attempting to be objective and to reasonably assess where they believe that the BTC price might go (of course this is more of a problem in terms of short term predictions).  Sure, there can be some tendencies for any of us to talk a bit of our book, especially a lot of us are investing in BTC for a long time, so we have some tendencies to be biased towards the BTC price going up by the fact that we own a lot of BTC so our networth goes up more when the BTC price goes up as compared to when the BTC price goes down. 

So, sure there can be some differences of opinion regard bitcoin's price direction, especially in the short-to-medium term - but also questions regarding how objective any of us might be in making our assessments of short-to-medium term BTC price dynamics..

I do believe that a lot of nocoiners, under invested in BTC folks, bitcoin naysayers and shitcoin pumpeners do readily like to accuse BTC HODLers as being biased by their BTC holdings.. sure there could be some amount of truth in some of that, but many times, those tend to be fallacious kinds of claims and frequently many of us bitcoin HODLers will consider that some of the BTC critiques do not own enough BTC which causes them to be biased in terms of not understanding BTC rather than that they are more objective because they are insufficiently invested in BTC. 

[ImThour]

Some On-Chain Data If someone is Interested

Supply on Exchanges: Shows the total amount of BTC located in known exchange wallets.


Whale Transaction Count: Number of Transactions transferring more than 1M USD.


Active Addresses: Number of unique addresses involved in BTC transactions daily.


MVRV Long/Short Difference: For certain coins, this indicator tends to bottom at the lowest point of its bear market and peak at the top of its bull cycle.


MVRV Ratio: Shows the average profit or loss of all BTC holders based on the price when each token last moved.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AverageGlabella]

@JayJuanGee @ImThour

Fuck the debating lets all agree that we all want to see Bitcoin continue to rise and we all get stinking rich that we have fuck you status

Explanation

WRONG WAY CHARTBUDDY...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

To all shitcoiners out there, who read WO -- I'm sure there are many:

If you keep logs of your shitcoin buys/sells, and have some spare time, try to calculate your total profits/losses since you got into shitcoins, and compare it with the profits/losses you would have if you had put all your funds into Bitcoin from the very beginning. You could be in for a big surprise!

I just did this for my cousin's shitcoin trading since the beginning of 2017. At that time, he transferred a fiat amount of approx. $6000 to Kraken, and has been trading shitcoins constantly until now -- that is, for 5 years non-stop. Below are the results. Prices/values are approximate and are as I remember them.

Calculation data:

Fiat investment amount: $6000
BTC price at time of investment (01/2017): $1000
BTC price now (01/2022): $38,000

Shitcoin performance (what he did):

Total shitcoins bought/sold: Too many to list!
Total shitcoin stash value now: $15,000
Total profit from 5 years of non-stop shitcoin trading: +150% ($9000)
Total trading volume: > $50 million (Kraken earned more than $100,000 in fees)
Total stress: Extreme. Watching charts 24/7 for 5 years.
Winner: Kraken

Bitcoin performance (what he should have done):

Total BTC bought: $6000 / $1000 = 6 BTC
Total Bitcoin stash value now: 6 BTC x $38,000 = $228,000
Total profit from single Bitcoin transaction after 5 years: +3700% ($222,000)
Total trading volume: $6000 (Kraken would have earned $16 in fees)
Total stress: Low. Casually checking BTC price and enjoying profits.
Winner: Bitcoin HoDLer (as always)!

Conclusion:

Never get into shitcoin trading.
When you're trading, the real winner is the exchange.
Always put your funds into Bitcoin and nothing else.
Do it as soon as you can.
Never sell, unless you must immediately use the fiat for goods/services.
Never sell to simply put fiat in a bank account.
Never worry about dips -- they're just noise.

So simple, yet few understand...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

This is the way.

[somac.]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

Well, it's certainly beyond most people today since house prices are no longer affordable for the vast majority of the population. Being born at the wrong time and to the wrong parents is a common mistake these days.

[funsponge]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

I have thought about this for a long time.

If you have no family depending on you and you do not have a partner it is a good idea. Sell the house for $300k buy a small camper van to live in so I am not homeless and travel the country by setting aside 10k by the time I have traveled all states I would probably profited by at least 1.5x.

280k x 1.5 = 420k

that is the minimum i think it rises it probably would be 2x

I could move into a house bigger then I have now for  1-2 years of living in a camper van. I would not need a mortgage and if a short time I would have improved my lifestyle forever

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

If I had an "extra" house, I could have sold it in 2016 too as I was trying to invest as much as I could (within some strict limits), but selling the house where I live-you have to be a bit more adventurous-like the Taihuttu dude (he sold the house when btc was $900, became a nomad with his whole family).

In any case, selling a live-in house to try to gain a bit of leverage is probably beyond most people. I have seen a couple reports like this, but usually it was a second house of a house that was inherited.

Don't you have like, family??  That has some orchard somewhere that they need help with. ...

The only problem is that you need to move all your sh!t that you accumulated for the past 20 years in your house.

[cAPSLOCK]

I know that Elwar sold his house for bitcoin around that time. Not sure about the origins of the house.

This is all you need anyway

That *is* an unnecessary chair?

[wavessurfing]

https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1486879576387108867?cxt=HHwWhoCy5ZnGuqIpAAAA

a spectacular progression !

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

He's out there somewhere... 

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