Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Here are some Fib recovery numbers that I got:

Considering an entirety of the down move from 69044 to 31951 (your numbers could be slightly different, but this is what i got), then Fib recovery numbers are:

$46128 for the 38.2% recovery

$54875 for the 61.8%

$61107 for the 78.6%

Above the latter number and at least an ATH retest. If the range is our destiny for 2022 and even a bit later, then, typically the advance would probably be somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8%, so $46-55K.
55K-61K-is a no man's land, but would be very optimistic, indeed. 50% recovery is NOT a Fib number, but it comes to $50.5K. IMHO, we might get to $46-60K, but would then turn back and oscillate for a while.
Politics, however, could change all this (providing either more downside or upside).
A murky picture, but at least those are the numbers I would pay attention to.

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[marcus_of_augustus]

Canadian truckers shut down border crossing and camped out in Capital Ottawa ... probably nothing

... shhh, don't mention the war?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-31/trucker-protest-strands-beef-shipments-at-u-s-canada-border

“It is not yet clear what the provincial or federal government is doing to facilitate a resolution. The longer this takes, it will cause more supply chain issues and this will affect everyone from producer to consumer,” Marie-France MacKinnon, a spokesperson for the council, said by email.

https://twitter.com/kiansimone44/status/1488626334972608514

... hear what they are chanting ... "FREEDOM! FREEEDOM! FREEDOM!"

... probably nothing for a bitcoin forum to talk about, shut up and take your corporate jab

[fr4nkthetank]

everyone in Canada thinks those truckers are complete idiots.  Plus a lot are out of fuel in Ottawa, freezing in their cabs.  Brought kids, but no food.  The border crossing is even more idiotic, considering they are mostly blocking their fellow truckers from getting home/working.  Even the trucker association called them out for being complete morons.  Opposition parties tried to get some steam by supporting them, then quickly backtracked after they realized how dumb this whole thing is.  Bitcoin ?  Bitcoin ?!?  99% of those people hate bitcoin and probably think its a lizard-alien-freemason conspiracy or some shit.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Lots of talk about the well done Fidelity report.  Rightfully so.

But the report absolutely SKEWERS Ethereum too...  Awesome.

I would argue that Fidelity has got points 3 and 4 on bitcoin incorrect.

Bitcoin network most certainly does 'smart contracts', multi-signatures are a rudimentary form of smart contract, e.g. payment channels, lightning network are built on multi-signatures and other smart-contract trustless crypto-negotiations ... this capability was admittedly basic and at a low level in the Forth-like Script of the early days but has been recently upgraded greatly with Taproot, Tapscript specifically.

Bitcoin can host multiple tokens on sidechains and is already doing it in volume with the Liquid sidechain. Also the Rootstock sidechain which is a swap-out for Ethereum.

[Hueristic]

   
   I received an email from Google yesterday that communicated, with much obfuscation, the following key points:

- The “Web & App Activity” setting for Google Workspace users will be ignored by Gmail, Drive, Docs, Calendar, Chat, Meet, Keep, and several other services.

- Tracking for these services will be controlled by a new user setting, “Google Workspace Search History”, which will default to on regardless of the user’s Web & App Activity setting.

- The ability of Google Workspace organizations to turn off “Web & App Activity” for all users will be removed.

- These changes will take effect on 2022-03-29.

Full email text: https://pastebin.com/raw/5ayJTDDp

More info from Google: https://support.google.com/a/answer/11194328
   

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30171800

[wavessurfing]

a progress in btc-like transactions ?

https://www.reddit.com/r/ecash/comments/shcyp2/so_avalanche_is_coming_to_ecash_but_what_does/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Who would invest in crypto?

That would be dumb.

I doubt that bitcoin is going to reach consensus regarding the freezing of any coins.. unless there were some major security issue, which these kinds of cases (of stolen bitcoins - even if in the several millions) does not establish any such major security issue or any other reason that would likely inspire consensus...

For sure, anyone is free to create a BIP to argue for such, and to see if they are able to achieve consensus.. and it seems that you have about a snowball's chance in hell of getting consensus.. one of the ways that bitcoin is distinguished from the vast majority of shitcoins, including but not limited to ethereum.

which is why I said it would be at a great cost . and that btc integrity would suffer greatly.

Something about your phraseology causes me to conclude that you are tweaking what you had previously said.. and also presuming that it would be easy to reach consensus about some kind of issue that would freeze some coins.. and that is not the case because a lot of members (node operators) put a lot of value on both fungibility and also on decentralization (not fucking around with the protocol absent overwhelming levels of consensus... in the 90% to 95% plus arena), and you are also framing that matter as if it were some kind of a BIG deal issue that some bad guys got coins that they were not supposed to have, and it does not seem to be currently an issue that even rises close to the ideas of fungibility and not intervening absent extra-ordinary circumstances (aka maintaining decentralization), and I don't really see a large number of coins being in the "wrong" hands becoming a BIG deal absent some really extraordinary circumstances - much beyond anything that you described so far.

frankly the most likely test case would not be a simple rip off of an exchange but forcing stale old coins to be moved or frozen. which would likely be   a big deal until at least until 2058 or 2059.

O.k... so now you are UPPing your scenario in the realm of even more extra-ordinary circumstances - which also may well not be enough to trigger nodes to want to follow rules that fucks with fungibility and/or decentralization - and hey, by the way, just to go along with you a wee bit, I am sure that there have been various ideas already batted around regarding how to potentially deal with these kinds of potential extra-ordinary issues that you are proposing that are not currently in front of us and were such extra-ordinary to occur.. also something like quantum computing scenarios, no?  

But if the extra-ordinary circumstances are not currently happening are about to happen in a tangible and concrete way, then I see little to no reason to be fretting about something that is not currently in front of us, unless perhaps you are wanting to discuss in some kind of specialized thread that is focusing upon such "in the weeds" discussions of scenarios that are currently ONLY at the theoretical level, in the way that you are framing them... even though, like I mentioned, presuming them to be some kind of potentially important matter that you need to point out and feel worthy of discussion and to propose potential solutions.. that may or may not end up getting agreed to, in the event some variation of what you describe were to become an actual issue that needs to be dealt with.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Here are some Fib recovery numbers that I got:

Considering an entirety of the down move from 69044 to 31951 (you numbers could be slightly different, but this is what i got), then Fib recovery numbers are:

$46128 for the 38.2% recovery

$54875 for the 61.8%

$61107 for the 78.6%

Above the latter number and at least an ATH retest. If the range is our destiny for 2022 and even a bit later, then, typically the advance would probably be somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8%, so $46-55K.
55K-61K-is a no man's land, but would be very optimistic, indeed. 50% recovery is NOT a Fib number, but it comes to $50.5K. IMHO, we might get to $46-60K, but would then turn back and oscillate for a while.
Politics, however, could change all this (providing either more downside or upside).
A murky picture, but at least those are the numbers I would pay attention to.

Those are not bad numbers in terms of figuring out possible areas in which breaking above them might cause some concerns or considerations regarding where we are going next, and what you are saying is not too far different from what I had been saying in recent times too...  - even though it seems that I am putting greater odds that we are not likely going to be stuck between $30k and $60k-ish for the whole of 2022..

Since we seem to be agreeing so much in broader strokes, we might not be able to formulate a bet because the difference in opinion needs to be sufficiently different to be bettable.... so unless maybe you are asserting that the odds of staying within a $30k to $60k for the whole of 2022 would be above 80% or something like that, then we might be able to bet because I would find such odds to be quite high and at best I would consider them around 50%.. so 50% is hardly bettable, no?  I mean, I might be willing to say 55% odds that we break above $60k.. but that is hardly bettable either.. unless you have more stubborn odds, which was the level of your arrogance earlier.. even though now you are coming off a wee bit more reasonable (at least temporarily).... 

Regarding a few weeks ago your spewing your seemingly lame-ass FUD ideas of less than 1% odds for supra $200k in 2022..... you seem to like to become more emboldened to spout out such nonsense as the price is going down.. but now that we might be having some temporary stabilizing of the BTC price, you seem to have become a wee bit more silent in terms of repeating anything close to that.. but I suppose if we get further into 2022, you may well become more embolden to repeat those kinds of lack of imagination naysaying proclamations that have likely kept you somewhat in the poor house to have had been insufficiently and inadequately preparing for UP.. and still seeming to be reluctant to learn any lessons from your past bearishness, fence sitting and failures/refusals to act and this time is different right?  more bearish for sure this time, no? -I can already imagine that if BTC prices were to still be within a kind of $30k to $55k price range by May or June (seems like a stretch, but it could happen), you might be willing to throw out your 1% odds of supra $200k and to say "I told you so.".. and of course, if we go until the middle of the year without breaking back above $55k, I may well start to change my tune too.. .. and for sure, we are going to be needing to see how these coming months play out and if we get above those $46k, $55k and $62k price points...

By the way, I don't know what would be "noman's land" about $55k to $62k.. To me, it just seems to be a price area of ambiguous significance.. sure it is between getting above a price in which we might proclaim that the current $31,951 bottom is in, and it is prior to getting into the real noman's land of supra $62k(if we were to get there) in which a new ATH at that point of getting above $462k would become a kind of shoe-in.. if there is such a thing of moving from 55% to 65% or something like that.

Sure it's a price area that could potentially cause some issues, but I doubt that your use of the term noman's land is very accurate because there really is nothing going on there except for that it was part of noman's land last time around (remember September to November when we were building up to revisit the previous $64,895 ATH?).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Then 2000BC:


Now 2022:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Inflation rockets to 7.6% year on year from January last year to this year in The Netherlands.

But don't worry everyone. There is a new European Harmonised inflation rate calculation available now
(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices or HICP) from the European Central Bank run by the esteemed high class moral citizen Christine Lagarde.

And that one tells it was only 2.8% over 2021 in The Netherlands.

So they're good.

Expect to see HICP mentioned more in the EU I guess now that other or "normal" inflation figures look terrible.

 

[Wouter Mense]

Yeah statistics... Anyway. Looks bad but small mistake: You got the HICP comparing 2021 to 2020 and the CPI comparing December 2021 to December 2020. It's really the last couple months that inflation spiked up so the yearly average numbers look a bit better.

Number go up?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

I remember last time we had the downtrend (sub 40k) Bitcoin price bounced hard just over 30k USD several times (and once it even broke into 29k), after that it felt certain that the "bottom was in". This time I'm not convinced at all we have seen the bottom, but maybe that's because I missed something obvious? I have no idea where this is going, the gambler in me (at the moment of writing) have it pegged around 70% chance we will revisit ~31k (maybe even go below) and 30% chance we have seen the worst of it and up we go.

[somac.]

I remember last time we had the downtrend (sub 40k) Bitcoin price bounced hard just over 30k USD several times (and once it even broke into 29k), after that it felt certain that the "bottom was in". This time I'm not convinced at all we have seen the bottom, but maybe that's because I missed something obvious? I have no idea where this is going, the gambler in me (at the moment of writing) have it pegged around 70% chance we will revisit ~31k (maybe even go below) and 30% chance we have seen the worst of it and up we go.

This decrease is very different to the last one though. This decrease is 80% due to the Feds jawboning, the last one was from a flood of coins being put on the market due to the China bans. The On-chain picture is very different this time and if the Fed continues to signal, like they have recently, that they won't crash the economy, I think it is highly likely we have seen the bottom.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

I remember last time we had the downtrend (sub 40k) Bitcoin price bounced hard just over 30k USD several times (and once it even broke into 29k), after that it felt certain that the "bottom was in". This time I'm not convinced at all we have seen the bottom, but maybe that's because I missed something obvious? I have no idea where this is going, the gambler in me (at the moment of writing) have it pegged around 70% chance we will revisit ~31k (maybe even go below) and 30% chance we have seen the worst of it and up we go.

This decrease is very different to the last one though. This decrease is 80% due to the Feds jawboning, the last one was from a flood of coins being put on the market due to the China bans. The On-chain picture is very different this time and if the Fed continues to signal, like they have recently, that they won't crash the economy, I think it is highly likely we have seen the bottom.

I think you could be right about the Fed, but in my interpretation that might have been the "trigger", not explaining what's going on right now where Bitcoin behaves weak, mostly sideways action, small dumps creates long red candles. Just to make it clear, like most others in the WO thread I have no doubt about the long term "up", but this is about near future.