Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

I don't know if we are ever going to be rid of this. I just don't.

Don't waste your time!... Better off talking to a brick wall!..

If anyone from ripple cares to explain to me how I can get at the free ripple I got in the giveaway when the web wallet I used doesn't even have a live webpage anymore, I still probably wouldn't give much of a damn. Meanwhile my bitcoins lie silently sleeping...

Ethereum very nearly did the same thing to me.

[1714945674]

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[1714945674]

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[Richy_T]

1, 2, and 4 exist in the staff forum. 3 was permanently deleted at some point (it must have contained Satoshi's real name and address).

I have never seen this post in my life. The post #3 on bitcointalk contained Satoshi's Real name and his address.
That post was in Staff Forum. Maybe sirius knows who he is  

Only nine pages? That Satoshi dude sure didn't know how to start something popular...

[Richy_T]

Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

EDIT:

[serveria.com]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

The WO Lightning Cartel in the making! 

[Arriemoller]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

The WO Lightning Cartel in the making! 

Be careful, Biodom might ask you to move it to another thread (and Bob might open one).

[hisslyness]

That right is is a public forum, not your personal inbox, expect comments and feedback...
Also, It's "chopsticks", not a d*ck. Don't take it hard.

It's like I am arguing with a 5 year old who just Copy and pastes the same thing.
No more replies to you. Have a good day/night.

EDIT: Anyone who has problem with my Charts, kindly press the Ignore button under my avatar. Calling a trendline chop sticks won't be considered a feedback. I know some people support it however they are not very vocal about it but it's okay. I appreciate good feedback like JJG gave me but replying crap which makes no sense at all is kinda useless. I will keep posting what I got in my mind, cheers.

I replied back with genuine concerns that, what you have drawn has no patterns and the premise of your charts was "BTC Major Chart Patterns Since 2013"

Where is this pattern that you speak of, all i see is 3 groups of 2 lines, which doesn't look anything alike. Top Line/Bottom Lines are all sloping and moving in different directions and of different lengths.

What is the purpose of this TA, are suggesting we all go in at $30-31k? are you suggesting it will never breach 30-31k? Are you saying 30k-31k is the lowest price? Will it only touch the 30/31k once? or twice or 3 times? How far are we going to break out? Are we going to break out to a new ATH? What formula is determining 30k-31k as the support price? Why not 28k/29k, it seems to fit a lot better...

I just don't see any patterns, I see one trend on your log chart, that is, Bitcoin is going up! and has been since 2013 (the start of your chart)...

But instead you are throwing dick jokes at me.

Maybe i am just being bias as i don't subscribe to TA.

I like your other charts you post, which seems more/are factual...

Supply on Exchanges: Shows the total amount of BTC located in known exchange wallets.
Whale Transaction Count: Number of Transactions transferring more than 1M USD.
etc etc....

I don't have the patience to draft a JJG response, especially when I am not passionate about the subject at hand.

[Arriemoller]

Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.

Nah, I'm getting the feeling that a longish bear period is ahead of us, unfortunately.

[JayJuanGee]

Saylor interviews Dorsey...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdgP25UcHB0

Listening to/watching it now.. ... just on the surface, it is long... 4 hours and 11 minutes because it ends up being the 1st day of the two day Microstrateghy's conference (four panels about an hour each), and the intro Keynote is with Saylor interviewing Dorsey for about an hour... ...

I might make some comments along the way... so I did open a window to type some ideas as I watch it.. if anything comes to me while listening to these two quite smart and influential guys in the corporate space - while at the same time they seem to be attempting to provide facilities for the regular/little guy both through words and actions.

Starting at the beginning of the video with ONLY Saylor and Dorsey, think about the matter too... both of these guys are relatively newbies to bitcoinlandia... Dorsey really ONLY came to the bitcoinspace in 2017/2018 or so.  It looks like square started processing bitcoin payments through square in January 2018.   Dorsey says that he was already sympathetic to bitcoin in 2014 - though no major bitcoin related actions took place through him or his company in 2014, and for sure, Saylor ONLY came to the space in mid-to-late 2020.

Second panel of 5 internal Microstrategies executives talking about how they help to facilitate MSTR's bitcoin approach.,,, about an hour

Third Panel, discussion between different payment processors in the space Lolli, NYDIG and Bitpay... about an hour.

Fourth (and last) session was Saylor interviewing macro analyst Lynn Alden... about an hour

I listened to the whole 4 hours.. It is good, and of course the first and the last panels are the best, even though all the panels were good.

I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.

Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.

To much bullish news.

How do you define bear market?  How do you define moon this time around?

[hisslyness]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

The WO Lightning Cartel in the making! 

Be careful, Biodom might ask you to move it to another thread (and Bob might open one).

All good Bob! we got a 5M sat channel from when we organized the LN Swap! Remember it was my fault i got you back into this LN wormhole!

Just to recap who is on the WO LN Hub

cAPSLOCK
BobLawblaw
hisslyness
Elwar (not sure if it is still active)
psycodad
machasm (not sure if still active)
d_eddie (Soon to be)

If i missed anyone who has a LN node, please let me know... I have some idle sats waiting for a channel!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.

Nah, I'm getting the feeling that a longish bear period is ahead of us, unfortunately.

Bear, bears all around! 

[machasm]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

The WO Lightning Cartel in the making! 

Be careful, Biodom might ask you to move it to another thread (and Bob might open one).

All good Bob! we got a 5M sat channel from when we organized the LN Swap! Remember it was my fault i got you back into this LN wormhole!

Just to recap who is on the WO LN Hub

cAPSLOCK
BobLawblaw
hisslyness
Elwar (not sure if it is still active)
psycodad
machasm (not sure if still active)
d_eddie (Soon to be)

If i missed anyone who has a LN node, please let me know... I have some idle sats waiting for a channel!

I no longer have a participating ln node unfortunately.
I kept getting random freezes on the node and got fed up baby sitting it so closed the channels and drained it.
I have since rebuilt another one using raspiblitz but haven’t got any liquidity on it.
Just wanted to see if it was freezing again since it was rebuilt and it has run flawless since the rebuild but haven’t got round to adding any sats nor opening any channels.
Just too lazy really.

[JayJuanGee]

Not going to lie...  The market technicals look pretty bad.  A retrace to $33K seems almost certain and I'd put the odds of seeing $29K at about 65% and the odds of hitting sub-$10K at about 35%.  

Oh gawd.. .you been in bitcoin for quite a bit of time, and you still don't seem to understand it.... those probabilities are quite likely to be way overly confident in various bearish scenarios.

Maybe you are the one who needs to answer my hypothetical.. snap out of OgNasty!!!!!!


 

This is either the mother of all bear traps before we explode upwards, or we will retrace back to the levels before this recent boom, similar to 2018.  

Speaking of 2018, I am getting a similar feeling, but instead of late 2018 (right before the November/December capitulation), I am considering that we are more like in a February./March 2019 time frame that is potentially setting us up for something like what had happened in April to June of 2019.. of course, no guarantees, but I can see my scenario as being quite greater than yours.... and of course, we will see.  We will see.

What concerns me is that I don't believe Bitcoin has ever fallen below the previous cycle's high before.  

Yes... and you have no information that it is going to do it this time... We are going to be lucky to break below the 104 week moving average which is at about $31.5k currently, and 208-week moving average is at about $19.5k, so by the time the BTC price goes down that low -if it were to happen, then we would likely be quite a bit higher.. probably even in the supra $22k with the 208-week moving average... good luck getting below the 208-week moving average, and for sure you are presuming a bear market.. and you are going to need luck with that too... given the totality of what seems to be going on.. which is that we have not yet transitioned to a bear market.. as you are presuming... but hey.. reasonable minds can vary on that... Hopefully you have not sold too much in your preparation for your various bear scenarios that likely has quite a bit less than 50% odds of happening..

At least not that I can remember off the top of my head.  Now that the stock to flow model has been invalidated, I think it could be catastrophic for Bitcoin to break the higher levels every cycle trend as well.  

Good luck with that nonsense theory.  I know that it is popular these days to proclaim that S2F is dead or invalidated or broken.. and that is quite premature to be jumping into such ideas, even if they seem to be popular in recent times... lots of folks likely going to get reckt in their premature presumption that s2F is dead.. and also hopefully you do not end up being one of those who fail/refuse to adequately prepare for UP in your preparations for down that have decently good odds of NOT happening... 
 

The fundamentals have never been stronger and there's so much positive news in the pipeline it's hard to think all the momentum behind Bitcoin could come to a halt, but charts tend to tell the truth pretty accurately of what's to come.  

Charts are telling you... hahahahaha  Oh my!!!

Personally, I'm still hoping for $100K Bitcoin this year, but I think the odds of that happening are fairly low.  

You talking about 2022?  This may well be a bettable topic.  Are you game to discuss the terms of such bet?

All eyes on regulation as we see if the Biden administration is going to stop companies from grabbing up all the Bitcoin for the balance sheets and sending the price moonward as they control the market.

Regulation is surely one factor, but I doubt that regulation really pushes bitcoin BTC prices in the whole scheme of things... but hey, you have a right to place importance where you would like and see how things play out when you choose various random indicators/factors to help you to determine which way you believe the BTC price to be going.

Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.

Nah, I'm getting the feeling that a longish bear period is ahead of us, unfortunately.

Good luck with that.

You and OgNasty.... and sure, probably a few others filled with DOWNity hopium.

hahahahahahaha

[hisslyness]

@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK

Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

Also, Sat saving tip!

Always be mindful of the mempool when opening channels, also set your channel open fee to a fixed fee, if you put it dynamic it can get very very expensive. I have been setting my opening fees to 1sat/vbyte

As the channel initiator you shoulder the opening and closing fee.

Cost to open using 1sat/vbyte is 154 sats for one input.
Cost to close (co-operative) will depending on closing agreed cost.. approx 200sats
Cost to close (forced) can get very expensive... last one was about 3000sats

So you need to be sure you have collected enough fees to cover the opening and closing.

Don't be alarmed when you see 4,998,500 sats on a 5M channel, the hidden sats are reserved for cost of closing the channel.

You'll  also want to throw in the towel after 2 weeks!... If that happens, come and vent your frustrations here!

[BitcoinBunny]

There you have it, a central bank boss basically saying inflation is all our fault and you should just not ask for big pay rises to ensure it goes down.

Unbelievable.


 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60252340

"Life won’t get easier until 2023, warns Bank boss"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@Rand0mGuest2
Really Smart ppl that don't have any btc are going to get leap frogged by 80 iqs that believe in number go up
https://twitter.com/rand0mguest2/status/1489354118074273800?s=21

@Rand0mGuest2
"Bitcoin is worthless" naw bro it very clearly has a price that u follow everyday
https://twitter.com/rand0mguest2/status/1489355298301116421?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation