Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Monday March 31

We interrupt the advanced TA gallery to inform that today's Slumber Point was very unreliable (S = 0.014, W = 0.017) and way off the previous trend, so the Chinese Slumber Method refuses to give a prediction, even under advanced interrogation techniques.


Plot legend

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-03-30, 00:41 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-03-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~18 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2987 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2819 CNY
Error: 168 CNY (~28 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 493 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 456 USD
Error: 37 USD

EDIT: removed bogus "Bitstamp prediction is" line

NOTE: The last two squares show that the method can predict tomorrow's price fairly accurately, it just can't predict tomorrow's date.

[rebuilder]

/\

How many accounts have you made here by now?

[cAPSLOCK]

DuoBTCle-BTCottom confirmed!

[BBmodBB]

DuoBTCle-BTCottom confirmed!

butcoin is back two for one deal! weeeeee

[aminorex]

So, I am simply a fool: "Remember, Caesar, thou art mortal."

You mock people when they most need the courage of their convictions, not when they need humility.

[BBmodBB]

/\

How many accounts have you made here by now?

Amhurst Mass~spring 2012 i first learned about BTCitcoin/TOR ! =) *cool hat in your siggy!

[CoinRocka]

Stalemate?

[sharky101]

So Peoples Bank of China announcements usually come out at 7.00am?

[JayJuanGee]

If any of you are buying BTC through Coinbase, you will see that currently, at this moment, they have this message up.

Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Apr 4, 2014 at 03:54PM PDT after your funds have arrived. read more

In my experience, the NOTICE may NOT stay up all day b/c Coinbase may be able to get back into business at some time within the next few hours.  However, these kinds of NOTICE(s) from Coinbase (which happens from time to time) can be kind of irritating when Coinbase happens to be the vehicle through which a person invests from fiat into BTC and s/he wants to take advantage of the current BTC market prices.    

And, I believe that it has been speculated in this thread, before, that Coinbase likely runs out of Fiat on bitstamp and they are unable to purchase more BTC until they get more fiat onto Bitstamp.. who knows?

Personally, I am o.k. for now with NOT being able to buy b/c I bought at $452; however, I may get itchy and want to buy again (my next buy point happens to be below $440, if we were to get there..... maybe NOT) and I will be unable to do buy any BTC until Coinbase removes its NOTICE and returns to business as usual.  

BTW, seeing the NOTICE (that I cannot buy BTC) makes me inclined to buy BTC more.


Edit:  Soon after I made this post, the Coinbase NOTICE disappeared off of their site.. maybe they read my disappointment in this thread and responded swiftly and appropriately?  LOL

[windjc]

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

[chessnut]

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

[JayJuanGee]

So, I am simply a fool: "Remember, Caesar, thou art mortal."

You mock people when they most need the courage of their convictions, not when they need humility.

Creekbore does NOT seem to be too good at either social graces or tactful lashings out, but he does seem to be working on improving his application of these, at least from time to time.  

If he is NOT too rash in his posts, he may get better at this, so I have NOT completely lost hope in him, yet.  But, I tend to be charitable like that.  

[TwinWinNerD]

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

Are you sure it will be liftoff? Might be another dump ahead of us!

[JayJuanGee]

Still does not feel like a bottom.  

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?  

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

So we may see another $536 or something like that (maybe lower) before we go back up.. is that what you are saying?

[chessnut]

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?   

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

there is usually a last wave of divergance at the bottom, where volume is low, and price hits new extremes. Im not sure which pictures you are talking about.

We had huge volume down to 511, and a bit more down to 465. I believe that is the best volume we will see, and that was the capitulation.

[chessnut]

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

wakey wakey rise and shine!

the chinese are just eating some chiwawa for breakfast and then they will read in the paper that the ban was fake and they will buy 

[Bebopzzz]

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

wakey wakey rise and shine!

the chinese are just eating some chiwawa for breakfast and then they will read in the paper that the ban was fake and they will buy 

why do you think the ban is fake?

[Walsoraj]

If you haven't seen it already, Bobby Lee discussing fake trade data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M12zzwNkCo&t=12m35s

 

[chessnut]

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

wakey wakey rise and shine!

the chinese are just eating some chiwawa for breakfast and then they will read in the paper that the ban was fake and they will buy 

why do you think the ban is fake?

.... I never said I think it's fake, I dont know.

but there is now a rumour out that it's fake from a 'reputable' news agency.

[windjc]

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?   

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

there is usually a last wave of divergance at the bottom, where volume is low, and price hits new extremes. Im not sure which pictures you are talking about.

We had huge volume down to 511, and a bit more down to 465. I believe that is the best volume we will see, and that was the capitulation.

I don't agree. We had much more volume the day of the capitulation in July. In addition, we are not getting much buy volume on the bounces.

I agree that sell volume was not as strong on the last push down, but buy volume was enemic.

I guess you think the worst is past us. No more issues from here. $436 is the new perma-low.