Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

"cheap coins" - another cultist term

Imagine you were selling bitcoin futures contracts. What would someone have to pay you now in return for your bitcoin a year from now?

These coins are going up and you know it. You just don't know how much they're going to go down first.

No, I dont know that. And clearly most of society disagrees as well.

Wasn't addressing you, Sir. I don't know what you know and don't care.

The term "most of society disagrees as well"  means almost nothing in this context.... ... so speaking about NOTHING...  .. jibber jabber... at best

[1714991649]

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[1714991649]

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[1714991649]

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[JayJuanGee]

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie.  Strange days indeed  

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks  

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

[fonzie]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

[fonzie]

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie.  Strange days indeed  

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks  

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

My girlfriend is with me, this would have been complicated.

[JayJuanGee]

blah blah blah.

These are the kinds of trend-lines and bare assertion claims that i find problematic b/c the starting point is the ATH... It makes little to no sense to be to start from the ATH in order to make what point?  It may make a point about a current situation that is occurring, but it does NOT make any meaningful point about the overall health and/or value of bitcoin.... In my view focusing on that time period, remains just out of context and a form of limited information.

Extrapolating that trend line, BTC should trade for -3$ by mid July. Yes, that's right. People will pay you to take bitcoins off their hands.

quite amazing what people come up with...... that seems to make very little sense if you carry it to its logical end point... 

[JayJuanGee]

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie.  Strange days indeed  

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks  

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

My girlfriend is with me, this would have been complicated.

Haven't you ever heard of the expression that "you do not bring sand to the beach?"    

[hailtopitt]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

More people selling in China than elsewhere where more coins are probably being bought up?  Just a guess.

[aminorex]

Being very skeptical, I have done my own diligence on the news from Caixin, from which come to several conclusions.  I also make some estimates of interesting statistics, but I do not detail all the reasoning, or provide useful confidence intervals:

A regulation to the effect of a prohibition on banks providing RMB funding for bitcoin trading accounts was announced in December, but was not issued as a directive to correspondent banks.  Now the circular directive has been issued.  It affects all banks and transmitters regulated by PBoC.  

This leaves Chinese bitcoin users in a situation similar to that in the U.S., where bank funding is generally difficult at best, but somewhat more challenging still.  A SWIFT wire is generally the only way to do it, and most people are not sufficiently interested to do that.  Coinbase is the one notable exception.  Also, SWIFT is not available in China.  Localbitcoins.com remains a good option, both in the U.S. and in China.  Vendors may sell bitcoin as well, both in person and online, but I know of no such vendors personally.  One can buy QQ coins at any 7-11 in China, or via a mobile phone.  QQ coins can be exchanged for bitcoin, indirectly.  This is similar to the way in which Linden dollars can be purchased at Virwox, and used to buy bitcoin:  QQ coins can be used to buy virtual items, which can be sold for bitcoin.  A similar mechanism is supported by BTCChina directly.  This method should not be impacted by the PBoC directive.

Some estimates on China:

I estimate that there are no more than 24,000 exchange account holders at Chinese exchanges.  The proportion of these which are non-PRC residents is likely to be high, because zero trading fees make many simple automated trading strategies profitable.

The number of full nodes geolocated in China is estimated at 2.07% of the total worldwide.  If users are similarly distributed, and there are roughly 1.2 million users globally, roughly 1 in 10 being regular or frequent users, then there are roughly 24,000 bitcoin users in China, roughly 2,400 being regular or frequent users. The similar distribution assumption is unlikely to be accurate.

Fiatleak has roughly 20% of all BTC transactions denominated in onshore RMB as I write.  This is not a long sample.  Fiatleak information is of questionable provenance and/or significance.

China's largest roles in the BTC economy, in my opinion:

1) Start-up hotbed.  This will have lasting impact.

2) Mining equipment and hosting supplier.  This is a source of BTC and of FX for Chinese tech.

3) Highest exchange volume (due to no-fee operation).

[fonzie]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

More people selling in China than elsewhere where more coins are probably being bought up?  Just a guess.

There should be at least a theoretical possibility for doin arbitrage between the exchanges which would remove almost all of the difference after a few days autmatically.

[aminorex]

Haven't you ever heard of the expression that "you do not bring sand to the beach?"    

Who are you calling a beach?

[JorgeStolfi]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

This is a plot of the ratio (Huobi price)/(Bitstamp price) daily at ~19:30 UTC, when Huobi volume is usually minimum:


   


The bitcoinwisdom (and other?) charts apparently use the official currency exchange rate 6.21 CNY/USD to compute the equivalent USD price.  However, as the plot shows, the actual ratio maintained by arbitrage is around 6.10 CNY at Huobi = 1 USD at Bitstamp.  It may have to do with Bitstamp trading or withdrawal fees, or other factors.

[aminorex]

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

What is the break-even on mined coins right now?  About USD 1200?

[bitgeek]

Mornin' all!!

Can't really be arsed reading back through 20 odd pages but I think I get the idea from the last couple: cultists have their fingers in their ears, Chessnut clinging to EW for comfort while TERA is a lone voice of reason along with...Fonzie.  Strange days indeed  

Hey Fonzie...where in Asia are you at present?

Right now i´m in Malaysia-Kuala Lumpur, preparin for my flight back home on Sunday. I had awesome weeks , i have visited Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and New Guinea.
23 flights in 6 weeks  

Why aren't you out meeting girls, rather than trolling the BTC threads?

My girlfriend is with me, this would have been complicated.

Haven't you ever heard of the expression that "you do not bring sand to the beach?"    

Don't comment on what that troll igorr wrote, just look at his previous posts, he tries to post this stupid graph all over the forum.

[fonzie]

Does anyone has a explanation why we did have a 15-25$ spread between the western and the asian exchanges in the last 2-3 weeks?
Haven´t we been mostly equal before?

This is a plot of the ratio (Huobi price)/(Bitstamp price) daily at ~19:30 UTC, when Huobi volume is usually minimum:


    


The bitcoinwisdom (and other?) charts apparently use the official currency exchange rate 6.21 CNY/USD to compute the equivalent USD price.  However, as the plot shows, the actual ratio maintained by arbitrage is around 6.10 CNY at Huobi = 1 USD at Bitstamp.  It may have to do with Bitstamp trading or withdrawal fees, or other factors.

3 weeks ago prices on Huobi(shown as USD)  and Bitstamp were equal on bitcoinwisdom. Do you think they´re using a different ratio now, or did i miss something in your explanation?

[JorgeStolfi]

3 weeks ago prices on Huobi(shown as USD)  and Bitstamp were equal on bitcoinwisdom. Do you think they´re using a different ratio now, or did i miss something in your explanation?

The official exchange rate 

  was 6.06 from Jan/03, 2014 until Feb/14
  climbed gradually to 6.14 through Feb/28
  stayed at 6.12--6.14 until Mar/14
  climbed gradually to the current 6.22 through Mar/20
  has been around 6.20--6.22 since then.

Apparently arbitragers have their own "exchange rate" that has been more or less fixed at ~6.10 since Jan/15.
Until Mar/14 that was not far from the official rate.  It is also possibe that bitcoinwisdom was slow to update
the exchange rate in their scripts. 

[fonzie]

3 weeks ago prices on Huobi(shown as USD)  and Bitstamp were equal on bitcoinwisdom. Do you think they´re using a different ratio now, or did i miss something in your explanation?

The official exchange rate 

  was 6.06 from Jan/03, 2014 until Feb/14
  climbed gradually to 6.14 through Feb/28
  stayed at 6.12--6.14 until Mar/14
  climbed gradually to the current 6.22 through Mar/20
  has been around 6.20--6.22 since then.

Apparently arbitragers have their own "exchange rate" that has been more or less fixed at ~6.10 since Jan/15.
Until Mar/14 that was not far from the official rate.  It is also possibe that bitcoinwisdom was slow to update
the exchange rate in their scripts. 

Thanks for your help 

[surfer43]

inb4 ccmf, too the moon, and pure  :o

pump coming soon?

[JorgeStolfi]

Apparently arbitragers have their own "exchange rate" that has been more or less fixed at ~6.10 since Jan/15.

Who knows, perhaps there is only one arbitrage algorithm working between China and the West, with the exchange rate "6.10" hard-coded, and the owner did not notice that it has changed. 

[johnny211]

Apparently arbitragers have their own "exchange rate" that has been more or less fixed at ~6.10 since Jan/15.

Who knows, perhaps there is only one arbitrage algorithm working between China and the West, with the exchange rate "6.10" hard-coded, and the owner did not notice that it has changed. 

Doubtful the guy would not notice someone arbing his coins away

[dropt]

3600B mined a day. Selling wont stop.

What is the break-even on mined coins right now?  About USD 1200?

For myself it's about $103