Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am going to be pissed off if I bite into any bolts, nuts or washers when eating my fillippone-prepared pizza.

#justsaying.

Would you mind if you bite on a gold-coated BTC Bitcoin-themed Washer?

I doubt that they would be gold-coated (or plated) - unless that helps in some kind of preservation way, but surely better find all 24 of the washers, be able to put them in their proper order, and hope that they do not end up leading to a dummy wallet prior to getting too ccccitttteeeee about trade-offs of the likely needed dental work.  #thanks a lot fillippone

I know it's a weekend so I do not know if this tingle represents a move soon, or starting next week... but I am thinking we go look at the 33-35 area.  

I will not be surprised if we still see the current range for the next two weeks or so.

Two weeks would be fair enough to get to $33k to $35k-ish..

What should we consider to be our current range?

I am currently considering our current range as $27k to $32k... , even though we have not been below $28.5k since May 12th - 8 days now... .

There was a rumor that Micro Strategy is going to sell some Bitcoins. But, According to Bitcoin Magazine, They won't.

MICROSTRATEGY IS NOT SELLING ITS BITCOIN, SAYS NEW CFO
MicroStrategy’s newest CFO confirmed the company will not be selling its bitcoin and has not received pressure from stakeholders to sell in a recent interview.

Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/microstrategy-cfo-says-company-wont-sell-bitcoin

That is pretty damned dumb premise of a rumor that has almost zero basis in reality beyond a bunch of fucktwats saying it, trying to suggest that there is potentially some level of truth to it and it remains as a fairly persistent FUD spreading fantasy... similar to the fantasy that USDT (Tether) is going to bring down bitcoin. which has largely been being spread since 2014/2015-ish...

#HoDL

Perhaps.. or buy more... or a combination of both.

I have a little tingle in my somewhereoranother area...

I know it's a weekend so I do not know if this tingle represents a move soon, or starting next week... but I am thinking we go look at the 33-35 area.  

Time to test.

Well evidently I just need to use a little powder for this.

(But I still expect a move... this is a beartrap!)

Our currently ongoing dippity down from $30k-ish to $28,690 in the past couple of hours would not be enough to get too excited about - even though many of us would surely prefer our dippity to be UP rather than down... at least I would prefer a dip up rather than a dip down.. but I am not going to write home about movement that so far seems fairly range bound... until it is not..  

Going down again? Really? Not even a dead cat bounce to 40K-ish? Retest of 25K coming up or just oscillating in 29K-30K range again? Actually none of these questions is of any importance in the long-term. May be it is a good idea to buy now a little, and in case shit hit the fan (again) to untie the big bags of fiat savings. I doubt that anyone with half a brain is afraid by these dips and crashes anymore, but may be some are trying to outsmart the market and buy at unrealistic price. I really have no idea what is going to happen later this year. It seems that almost everyone is expecting a long and tedious bear year with prices dropping below 25K and may be even below 20K. But then again, BTCitcoin ALWAYS does what almost nobody expects. So, only because of that and not because the news or market dynamics, I dare to state some scandalous or at least unpopular prediction like 80K+ at the end of 2022.  

Might be a bit of a stretch to expect getting that far towards the UPpity within 7 months or so.. but surely not impossible... but we would surely have to get past a few resistance points, and then it seems to me that noman's zone would start somewhere between $55k and $62k.. and probably not end until $92k-ish.. but hey it is difficult to know that far out.. and that many seemingly resistance points.. .. anyhow, it does seem that $80k would be in the middle of deadman's zone so not really a likely stopping point.. but in November 2021, $69k wasn't a likely stopping point either, but we saw what happened with that.

[Biodom]

The S&P 500 is now at the same price level as it was on 01/03/2021.

They managed to wipe out an entire years' worth of stonk market gains in just 4.5 months.

That's almost nothing, really.

Nikkei went 20 years backwards (over 14 years of slow declines; from 39K to 8K), then was in a 10 year flat (oscillating between 8K and 18K).
Now in a bull since 2012 (8K to 26.7K).

Imagine a 14 year long bear market. It probably won't be so long since US likes to "take" their recessions fast and furious, but the economy as a whole would need to be restructured because of the end of globalization (or a partial end?) during a period of probably high persistent inflation.
Could it take 5-10 years? Sure.

[serveria.com]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph? 

[Gachapin]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis.  I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown.  But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.

I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break."  And I think he often said that over time.

I would also point out that his model has not broken yet.  We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion.  It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy.  They just become less and less likely the further we go.

AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future.  All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model.  I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.

Now his 100k by December proclamation.  There he was 100% wrong.  And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction.  I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly.  Some of the other silly predictions were even worse.  I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear.  But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later.  His prediction in that regard has been right so far.  (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts.  My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)

I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull.  The question is WHEN does it go...  PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold.  And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...

Probably not... but I hope he's right

You are right.

I just have a little fun, because he has moved his goal post quite a few times.

And also because every cycle we have these TA guys, who happen to be right a few times come out of the woodwork and get treated like stars..

In addition to that I suffer from hurt feelings, because I really want(ed) his prediction to come true as well


But seriously, listening to his interviews, I think he is a very level-headed and experienced guy.

[PoolMinor]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 2018 now according to that graph?  

FTFY

[Biodom]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph?  

It is a nice chart/prediction, but it should be taken with a grain of salt..we could be there already (or were at 26.7K) or the bottom could be 20-30% lower. Not predicting it, but just saying that the graph allows for it (if 14M RSI goes to the same number as previously achieved in Dec 2018).
When to buy? If you have cash, maybe DCA already, but if you already have a nice position, then you can simply hodl here.

[PoolMinor]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis.  I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown.  But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.

I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break."  And I think he often said that over time.

I would also point out that his model has not broken yet.  We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion.  It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy.  They just become less and less likely the further we go.

AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future.  All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model.  I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.

Now his 100k by December proclamation.  There he was 100% wrong.  And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction.  I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly.  Some of the other silly predictions were even worse.  I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear.  But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later.  His prediction in that regard has been right so far.  (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts.  My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)

I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull.  The question is WHEN does it go...  PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold.  And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...

Probably not... but I hope he's right

Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.

[empowering]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hamza2424]

Bull is getting Ready 😁..
Some finishing Touches are left over

This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl

[philipma1957]

Bull is getting Ready 😁..
Some finishing Touches are left over

This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl

Did you do the work? If so it is nice work.

[Gachapin]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis.  I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown.  But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.

I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break."  And I think he often said that over time.

I would also point out that his model has not broken yet.  We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion.  It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy.  They just become less and less likely the further we go.

AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future.  All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model.  I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.

Now his 100k by December proclamation.  There he was 100% wrong.  And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction.  I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly.  Some of the other silly predictions were even worse.  I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear.  But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later.  His prediction in that regard has been right so far.  (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts.  My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)

I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull.  The question is WHEN does it go...  PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold.  And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...

Probably not... but I hope he's right

Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.

I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.

Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis.  I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown.  But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.

I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break."  And I think he often said that over time.

I would also point out that his model has not broken yet.  We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion.  It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy.  They just become less and less likely the further we go.

AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future.  All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model.  I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.

Now his 100k by December proclamation.  There he was 100% wrong.  And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction.  I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly.  Some of the other silly predictions were even worse.  I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear.  But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later.  His prediction in that regard has been right so far.  (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts.  My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)

I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull.  The question is WHEN does it go...  PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold.  And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...

Probably not... but I hope he's right

Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.

I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.

Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...

Sometimes it really does not matter. In Jan 2015 the bottom was at $178 or so, but you could have bought it about 7 mo later at $210 with the bull truly starting around late September 2015. That was an almost perfect setup for DCAing for about 8 mo.
BTW, huge reversal in SP500 (from EXACTLY -20%), Dow, etc today. Maybe the bounce would start sooner than later.

[serveria.com]

New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...


"The good news: bear market is almost over."

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA

I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis.  I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown.  But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.

I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break."  And I think he often said that over time.

I would also point out that his model has not broken yet.  We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion.  It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy.  They just become less and less likely the further we go.

AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future.  All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model.  I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.

Now his 100k by December proclamation.  There he was 100% wrong.  And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction.  I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly.  Some of the other silly predictions were even worse.  I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear.  But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later.  His prediction in that regard has been right so far.  (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts.  My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)

I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull.  The question is WHEN does it go...  PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold.  And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...

Probably not... but I hope he's right

Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.

I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.

Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...

The question is why do you need to know if the bottom is in? If you want to buy - buy. Missing the bottom by a couple of grand is not a big deal. Zoom out for a bigger picture. If you want to sell - hodl. Simple as that.  

[Gachapin]

The question is why do you need to know if the bottom is in?

To either prepare for more pain or only for some boring months.

But yeah, nobody is able to answer the question definitively, so it's just a guessing game anyways.

[vapourminer]

Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...

meh

i have buys sprinkled every 2K or so down to (currently) 24k or so. i never try to catch the bottom exactly i just slurp sats here and there on the downslide until the price moves up decently (say 4 or 5k maybe) then i figure that was the local bottom for that period and buy with whatever dry powder i have left for this period. reset every few months or as cashflow allows.

its not based in any ta or anything its just my lazy ass way of doing it. sometimes works sometimes not lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation