Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[psycodad]

Number of addresses hodling #bitcoin 

In 2012: 1,080,324
In 2022: 41,937,213

That’s another sign you are still very early in bitcoin, want proof?

A quick Google says

2.8 billion credit cards in the world

So in 2022 <1.5% of credit cards holder holding bitcoin

Ok let see for banks account holders, it says almost 63% of the world's adult population have a bank account.

and Worlds adults population as of 2021 is (>18 years) ~ 4.1 billion

Or in 2022 merely <1% of adults population (having bank account) holding bitcoin.

So by any means you are still very very early.

While I of course agree that there is a sizeable growth in BTC hodlers and that this is great and reason for enthusiasm, it is a lapse of thought to think of one address = one hodler. My main wallet alone has ~20 active addresses with coins, any wallet with a good count of transactions has easily dozens of change addressess holding sats and whole coins.
I guess you have at least to divide your estimation figures by 10 - 20 which still leaves us with an amazing supposed amount of actual hodlers.

[cAPSLOCK]

Where dat bounce doh?

[OgNasty]

It does appear that the market has capitulated.  This week's trading volume was the highest it's been in about 1 year (strange that volume spikes happened almost exactly a year apart).  That to me is a pretty good capitulation signal and a good sign that the market will be rebounding a bit from here.  I was trying to jump in around $26K, but am still waiting for fiat to move...  I'm sure I'll miss the dead cat bounce but maybe we'll get a revisit of the lows before breaking out again.  In any event, I'd feel a little safer now that the volume spike is behind us.  I've been telling people to look out for selling opportunities for 7 months now.  I think I'm ready to switch my analyst opinion from SELL to HOLD.  If we see another new low below $20K with a similar volume spike, or an ETF approval, and I'll be switching to a full BUY opinion.  

[Torque]

Where dat bounce doh?

Incoming. Watch it slowly creep up on literally everyone.

Btw, the NASDAQ is gonna likely close flat today.

-------------------

Also for the WO'ers in the back: Raise you hand if you think the SEC rushed a dozen Bitcoin ETFs to the market in late 2021, just so that their wealthy buddies and clients could all lose money in the coming couple of years?

Anyone? Bueller?

[JayJuanGee]

My intent here was not to discuss other topics, but this is of prime importance.  .........

I did read your whole post, and you are kind of meandering between decently good ideas and demonstrated knowledge of some of the trade-offs.. but you seem to come to quite a few problematic conclusions too, especially including ways that on a personal level you might be able to balance your willingness to take risks (and some of your disinclinations to personally manage it) and some of your strong ideological views which sometimes point out truths - but still does not necessarily lead you to proper risk management strategies...

Your fucking wordiness competition style kind of reminds me of nullius - and in the end you guys trying to compete with this cat do not seem to be able to muster up enough long-term stamina, even though you provide some decent short-term runs.. ..

... so sometimes nullius also had some pretty fucking decent ideas - and maybe some ideology that was too strong, but I really doubt that nullius would be playing around with margin.. though sure - people change too, and sometimes they experiment... .. and I am not even proclaiming that we cannot learn by experimenting, so long as we attempt to figure out some kind of balance rather that taking too strong of positions..

surely some traders do end up getting pay-offs from having some conviction and holding to kind of long term views about price thresholds that end up playing out in their favor - kind of in a kind of luck.. but also at the same time being willing to live with either outcome - up or down.. and then extremes happen from time to time as we know.. so it can frequently pay off to have some mechanisms in place to be able to profit from those extremes and just letting the price come to you.. and if it does not, you are willing to live with that outcome too.. I am reminded of LFC and also Ivomm in regards to these kind of longer term plays in which I don't really completely agree.. but they reach their proper balances on a personal level and matters end up working out to their favor.. ... but I am not sure if Ivomm has bought back in yet... and LFC maybe only partially or perhaps a decent amount and maybe only smaller parts remaining in the grand scheme of things..

And, surely bitcoin price dynamics are a moving target.

Yesterday I added DOWNity scenarios to one of my own reference price prediction posts (and you can see that at the bottom of this linked post) which is meant to help guys to attempt to think through these kinds of matters, and not necessarily cause anyone to have to come to the same conclusions regarding how much percentage should be assigned to each of the various price points for UP or down or even agreeing to any kind of time frame that they would expect such peak dips or peak rises to play out.. but there still can be some value in terms of attempting to figure out how much probability you feel that you should assign to various points and then if BIG events end up happening, then considering whether there might be some need to adjust the probabilities in terms of how far the price might go in one direction or another or how long it might take to play out.

In 2000 internet/biotech led the decline, followed by SP500 cratering within 6-10mo.

This time, "crypto", biotech and "internet" (FAANG) are cratering (at -50-60% already).
Maybe a bounce in June-July, then a true SP500 crash in the Fall, as usual?

This seemingly "inevitable" SP500 crashening that you see in the room with us is going to happen before or after the mid-term elections in the US of A?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

[savetherainforest]

 ^

AHAHAHAHAHA


LOOOOOOOOOOOOL


Quantum is Pisces energy. It will forever be.   

[Gachapin]

Tired of the masses not realizing a good thing like Bitcoin when it's right in front of them, even during hyperinflation (facepalm)

Give it some time. Understanding Bitcoin is not done in 10 minutes.
I always try to spread the gospel. Several people around me became Bitcoiners.

edit:
Bitcoiners who hold their own keys of course 

[El duderino_]

Happy Bday my favorite BTC-brother

Enjoy the cake, the GF and the day

Meet you soon irl for dinner to

Cheers

[JayJuanGee]

It's not that you are the first to note that bitcoin periodically retests 200 WMA, far from it, so it is not really that big of a deal if it happens (or not).
But...have a cookie.

But some people here said it won't happen because Saylor and EL SALVADOR is on the boat with them.

Are you deluded?  People here criticize your presentation style and your absolutism, so they are largely criticizing that you are way too certain in the probability assignments that you are making.  Plus likely some guys (and maybe a gal too?) find your need for recognition (as sorcerer) to be a wee bit annoying.

In other words, there are very few guys who would proclaim some extreme price event is not going to happen, and surely it is a matter of degree or low probability assignment.. and sure guys do talk in absolutes, but still the point is that they were not making any claim but instead responding to you and going in the opposite extreme in reaction to your outrageous claims.

Haha, What's the point of being in the market since 2014 if you can't see a similar pattern. (Not you Biodom, I like your cookie).

Nevermind. Have fun buying.

Yes a lot of us compare patterns, but they are likely in need of some kind of presentation rather than just proclaiming x is going to happen because I would like x to happen. . and here are some squiggly lines that look like some other squiggly lines that already happened... and they also show that x is going to happen.. blah blah blah.

By when are you going to be opening up subscriptions to your BTC price guru services?  I am sure that many guys here would be interested, even if we may well be too shy to admit it.

And did it ever came to your mind, that your idea was in fact stupid, and you just got it right out of pure coincidence?
Don't you think there is the possibility that your TA has absolutely nothing to do with you being right, this time?

You haven't seen my other ideas. I won't call my idea stupid or coincidence.
I called that BTC will touch 200 Weekly Moving Average, so falling on that trendline is part of it.
My TA has absolutely everything to do with me being right this time, thanks for your time though.

I mean:
Your TA can be right or wrong. But it being right (or wrong) can be totally independent from any TA skill you might have.

You will probably notice, when your TA is failing you big time. And I promise, in bitcoinlandia you will make that experience, no matter how much confidence you have in your TA.

So from "This time" to Future analysis, funny how the odds changed.

Actually, if we are referring to the BTC price going down.. once certain support lines break, then the odds for further down can end up changing.. so something like $24.5k or even $23.5k  could end up having way higher odds now as compared with its odds a month or two ago.

For example, even though yesterday is likely not exactly a great example because we are in the middle of a lot of BTC price dynamics, so it can be quite impossible to put any kind of strong confidence in assigned percentages, but in my post from yesterday that happened while the price was just below $30k and the then low was $27,758,  I had placed odds of $25k or less to have been around 31%.... and yeah, of course, I am ball parking based on then current dynamics and information that was somewhat known by me.... but then now that $25k has almost been reached.. all of the odds of the uncertainty between $25k and $27,758 have been resolved because those prices have already happened... which thereby causes the odds for $25k or lower to increase..... perhaps even getting close to 40% or maybe even higher than 40%...

Yes, we can disagree about the assignment of probabilities, and for sure guys are going to criticize you way more for talking in absolutes about things in the future, even though laymen speak that way on a quite frequent basis.  Even if you assign 70% or 80% odds, and I ONLY assign 40% odds, I might not even argue with you about it as much as when you seem to be assigning something close to 100% odds... I still might argue with you about 80% odds, but surely not as much as when you are proclaiming that in the past, you had actually predicted the future.. which is so obvious on its face to be untrue, even if you ended up getting it right.  By the way, I predict that tomorrow the sun is going to come up.

[Richy_T]

Will they go after Coinbase next?

If they could bankrupt Coinbase and cause all holders in Coinbase to loose their coin in the BK liquidation, that could also be a major blow to crypto/Bitcoin..

I believe Coinbase operates in a fairly safe and conservative manner so attacks would be tricky. It would pretty much have to be a hack/heist, DOS or legal.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

speaking of pants.. anyone feeling robbed, recently?

I feel robbed of a future, or at least it looks pretty dark now. Tired of the masses not realizing a good thing like Bitcoin when it's right in front of them, even during hyperinflation (facepalm), and then more idiots begging for NATO hot war with Russia.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Brothers and sister!
Who were able to shop with immense joy when BTC was under $25k!

We actually got it at $267xx
My shopping maniac wife loved it 🤣

Observing at $28,280

[fillippone]

Birthday this weekend, who likes my cake

Happy Birthday, mate.
Have a nice day celebrating life, love whatever other you like.

Happy to know that your BTC plan worked out well. You are an example for us all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Birthday this weekend, who likes my cake

You Pedofile !!! ... is that a Mikey Mouse popsicle hanging out near the top??!  



*edit():  I was man-splaining the concept of pedofilia to my 5 year old niece a few months ago and the sexual industrial complex of Disney whisle she was watching a 3D Mikey stuff and I thought... why should I bother?? The Globe needs more penises anyway and a 50billion population to be able to "space-able" and populate the whole Solar System fast enough during my lifetime.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

speaking of pants.. anyone feeling robbed, recently?

I feel robbed of a future, or at least it looks pretty dark now. Tired of the masses not realizing a good thing like Bitcoin when it's right in front of them, even during hyperinflation (facepalm), and then more idiots begging for NATO hot war with Russia.

I rlly want to give you merits... but I don't have any!!!!!!! .. So I'l just repo(r)(s)t u'r sh!t...