Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

https://cryptonewsland.com/gemini-terra-conspiracy-peddled-by-hoskinson-untrue/

[El duderino_]

[death_wish]

My intent here was not to discuss other topics, but this is of prime importance.  The short version:

Current events are playing out as an attack on the use of Bitcoin as a reserve currency - the thing that we are urging whole countries to do.

I’m thinking this was an attack on bitcoin, not really Luna, but used Luna to attack bitcoin..

[...]

Prime target.. Bitcoin..

I largely agree with the above-quoted portion, but not with the analysis of what the attack is.  And I strongly disagree with some other people's posts wishing for Terra to go bankrupt.

WO is the wrong place to debate altcoins, so I will minimize talk about Terra here other than to disclose upfront that I recently bought an economically negligible amount of LUNA.  I am obviously in no position to be making altcoin investments, much less to gamble on whether Terra can recover from a death-spiral.  I did it on principle.  I am marking my endorsement of permissionless currency, and I am protesting against Yellen, the Fed, and USG.  Yellen called out and targeted UST by name, so Terra must be doing something right.

Yellen's yellin' against UST?  I must hold some LUNA - even a token amount, so to speak, bought for almost-nothing with the almost-no-dollars I had available.  Whether or not you agree with me, you can probably see whence I come.

Beyond that:  This is about Bitcoin, and I am here to talk about Bitcoin.

There is now propaganda chatter out there urging Terra to abandon Bitcoin as useless, and backstop themselves with USDC instead.  Pause to contemplate why.

It all boils down to attacking public confidence in Bitcoin - starting with Bitcoin's viability as a reserve currency, then proceeding to general confidence in Bitcoin (the thing which, when lost, sent Terra/Luna into a death spiral).  And Bitcoiners wishing bankruptcy on people who rely on Bitcoin as sound money are not helping.

I declare that Bitcoin is sound money.  This means that if a large holder has an emergency where they must dump to meet their obligations, I can't criticize them for relying on "Bitcoin reserves" to do what that says on the tin.  To the contrary.

If El Salvador had a national crisis tomorrow, and they urgently needed to dump their BTC to feed their people, then I would be pleased at the demonstration that BTC could save a whole country.  Complaints about the temporary effect on the price, similar to what I am seeing from a few people here, would be tantamount to telling everyone that you are allowed to pump BTC by buying in bulk - but if you very urgently need that money, then Bitcoiners will publicly insult you, ridicule you, and wish you to get wiped out.

Thus, even though this market crash is what got me liquidated, I do not blame Terra.  I blame myself for having put myself in a ridiculously stupid position where I could lose BTC from a dip.  If my BTC had been in my wallet where it damn well belongs, I would not even be upset right now!

If a large entity urgently needed to swap huge amounts of XAU/USD in a hurry, then gold would dip, too.  I think that gold is a rock-solid, reliable reserve currency.  And I think that Bitcoin is an excellent reserve currency!


I should also note, I suspect that the direct effect of Terra's BTC sale is probably overestimated here.

We are now deep into the territory of cascading liquidations of every margin-account idiot who lacks the resources to survive a drop deep below $30k (including myself).  On my exchange, a few hours ago, there was a BTC dump that smashed through the order book as low as $24,760 when the mid-market price was still well over $28k.  I am no mood to analyze this more than superficially now, but I am pretty sure that must have been a huge liquidation - one of many!  As I was writing this, another order sliced down as low as $26,377 with the mid-market over $27,300.  It just keeps going, and going...  The market is now being flooded by an extreme long squeeze.

I also see indications that shorts are increasing, not covering.  Someone out there with sky-high capital is pulling out all the stops to dump us as low as possible, as fast as possible.

Thus, I suspect that at this point, we are suffering from many factors other than the direct effect of the Terra dump - while it mostly gets blamed on Terra.  Look over there!  Neat trick.

If margin-account idiots (including myself) had not conveniently lined themselves up like dominoes to get knocked down by Terra's dump, then I think that the Bitcoin market would have been sufficiently robust to absorb the shock without opening an opportunity for highly-capitalized shorters to amplify the damage - knocking the dominoes down further and further, in a vicious cycle of Terra dumps, cascading liquidations, and massive shorts.  Anyway, that is my current theory - based on the "ground truth" of what I am seeing happen.


I have confidence in BTC.  I welcome anyone and everyone to rely on BTC as a cash reserve asset.  MicroStrategy with their corporate cash reserve.  El Salvador with their national reserve.  Terra with the reserve backstopping LUNA for their peg obligations.  Everybody should use Bitcoin!

My confidence in BTC makes me dearly want to keep some, so that I’m not totally left behind when the price recovers and rockets off again.  As Jay says, people prepare for downside, but not the upside - I only fear the downside when that could take away my upside, due to bitcoins being not in my wallet where they belong.  Please, Bitcoin, find some support.  $26,600 is low enough for a local bottom; please don't crash to the $25k range where I could get liquidated again...  Or at least give me some time, some room to breathe here...  Yes, I should probably stop writing forum posts, and return to the task of struggling to scrape together enough assets to free my remaining piece of a bitcoin.  It’s hard, when this margin account already ate almost everything in my futile attempts to avoid liquidation.


From my post history, you can see that I am so strongly against selling BTC, I just lost BTC to liquidation around $28,500 because I refused to sell $35k margin buys at $47k.  But my extreme aversion to selling BTC at any price is a personal thing.  I do not seek to impose it on others - although of course, I do tell others when it is economically stupid to sell BTC.  Usually, it is economically stupid - when you have a choice.  Terra has no choice.

In the past, I have sometimes rationed my food intake to avoid spending too much BTC.  No joke.  But that is a personal decision - and on the flipside, Bitcoin has literally saved my life at times when I had no other money.  Am I "overinvested"?  Eh, probably.

I promote Bitcoin as money.  That means I can't criticize people for relying on Bitcoin to satisfy their obligations.  Terra has an obligation to use all of their available resources to make UST holders whole at a rate of $1.00 for 1 UST.  If they are spending/selling Bitcoin for that - well, Bitcoin is money!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Imho there is not much to say now

Only a lot of no coiners are created, a lot of BTC maxis are created ….

Each BTC sold is having a buyer, some are selling at crazy low prices and some are doing the deals of a lifetime…

Decide which you team you wanna join…

[Biodom]

In 2000 internet/biotech led the decline, followed by SP500 cratering within 6-10mo.

This time, "crypto", biotech and "internet" (FAANG) are cratering (at -50-60% already).
Maybe a bounce in June-July, then a true SP500 crash in the Fall, as usual?

[ImThour]

It's not that you are the first to note that bitcoin periodically retests 200 WMA, far from it, so it is not really that big of a deal if it happens (or not).
But...have a cookie.

But some people here said it won't happen because Saylor and EL SALVADOR is on the boat with them.
Haha, What's the point of being in the market since 2014 if you can't see a similar pattern. (Not you Biodom, I like your cookie).

Nevermind. Have fun buying.

[ImThour]

Each BTC sold is having a buyer, some are selling at crazy low prices and some are doing the deals of a lifetime…

Fortunately, I can consider myself in the latter.
HODL mode is activated.

[Gachapin]

And did it ever came to your mind, that your idea was in fact stupid, and you just got it right out of pure coincidence?
Don't you think there is the possibility that your TA has absolutely nothing to do with you being right, this time?

You haven't seen my other ideas. I won't call my idea stupid or coincidence.
I called that BTC will touch 200 Weekly Moving Average, so falling on that trendline is part of it.
My TA has absolutely everything to do with me being right this time, thanks for your time though.

I mean:
Your TA can be right or wrong. But it being right (or wrong) can be totally independent from any TA skill you might have.

You will probably notice, when your TA is failing you big time. And I promise, in bitcoinlandia you will make that experience, no matter how much confidence you have in your TA.

[ImThour]

And did it ever came to your mind, that your idea was in fact stupid, and you just got it right out of pure coincidence?
Don't you think there is the possibility that your TA has absolutely nothing to do with you being right, this time?

You haven't seen my other ideas. I won't call my idea stupid or coincidence.
I called that BTC will touch 200 Weekly Moving Average, so falling on that trendline is part of it.
My TA has absolutely everything to do with me being right this time, thanks for your time though.

I mean:
Your TA can be right or wrong. But it being right (or wrong) can be totally independent from any TA skill you might have.

You will probably notice, when your TA is failing you big time. And I promise, in bitcoinlandia you will make that experience, no matter how much confidence you have in your TA.

So from "This time" to Future analysis, funny how the odds changed.

[Paashaas]

Remember all that volatility in the past? It looks flat now.

Those dumps from past years until now will look the same by 2025-2030 ore so.

If you can't handle the dumps you ain't worth the pumps.

Anyway, had a nice breakfast and took a big scoop pre workout supplement. Going to destroy the gym.

[ImThour]

"A picture is worth a thousand words".
This is the time to buy and hold. BTC

[Gachapin]

And did it ever came to your mind, that your idea was in fact stupid, and you just got it right out of pure coincidence?
Don't you think there is the possibility that your TA has absolutely nothing to do with you being right, this time?

You haven't seen my other ideas. I won't call my idea stupid or coincidence.
I called that BTC will touch 200 Weekly Moving Average, so falling on that trendline is part of it.
My TA has absolutely everything to do with me being right this time, thanks for your time though.

I mean:
Your TA can be right or wrong. But it being right (or wrong) can be totally independent from any TA skill you might have.

You will probably notice, when your TA is failing you big time. And I promise, in bitcoinlandia you will make that experience, no matter how much confidence you have in your TA.

So from "This time" to Future analysis, funny how the odds changed.

Is it so difficult to understand?  

This Terra thingy has nothing to do with your TA.
--> So there is the possibility that you being right has not much to do with your TA skill.

I get it, you want to believe that your skill made you being right.

But you probably will be humbled, when your "skill" fails you big time... like it happend to Masterluc PlanB and others before

[El duderino_]

[OgNasty]

"A picture is worth a thousand words".
This is the time to buy and hold. BTC

There are a lot of metrics that show buyers of the current situation will be well rewarded in the future. I think all these metrics leave out the mtgox coin distribution event. It may be that there’s money on the sidelines waiting for those coins to buy, but it’s also possible the market is exhausted and those coins will send Bitcoin plummeting again. It’s not quite as riskless as the technical analysis show. It’s also possible that talk of mtgox coins coming soon is just rumors and the distribution drags on for years while an ETF gets approved. The only thing that seems certain is that there will be lots of volatility coming down the pipeline.

[El duderino_]

Remember all that volatility in the past? It looks flat now.


Anyway, had a nice breakfast and took a big scoop pre workout supplement. Going to destroy the gym.

Same-ish morning brother

Btw try out Crossfit

It’s literally the best and most fun ever

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Jay, you indicated somewhere earlier that not everybody loses money with margin.  I said that it is insane to take margin-account loan terms "for almost any purpose".  I did not fit into that tiny little "almost"!

For sure, I am not referring to balls to the walls employment of margin when I am suggesting that there are ways to structure margin and use it to help you to prepare for price moves in either direction.

I don't use those kinds of techniques myself - even though I have used various kinds of debt to buy BTC... ..

You could imagine that if someone has 1 BTC that he bought at $40k.. To protect himself for the downside, he might enter a short of 0.05 BTC which would be 1/20th of the value of his holdings.. So if the BTC price goes up to $42k he loses the 0.05 BTC but his remaining 1 BTC goes up in value an equivalent amount so he ends up breaking even in dollar value, but if the BTC price goes down to $36k or lower, he could end up cashing in and making decent money on the .05 BTC that he used to short even though his 1BTC goes down in value.. that is what I mean by ways to structure in order to use the margin to prepare for either price direction, even though I may have gotten some of the details wrong since shorting BTC and even using margin is not part of something that I actually do.

You make less money when you hedge with margin, but you are better prepared for either price direction if that is what you are wanting to do.

You do not have to use margin to also prepare yourself for either price direction by selling small amounts on the way up and buying on the way down.. but for sure, I am not suggesting to sell large amounts.. you sell something less than 1%  for every 10% the BTC price goes up and you also only sell from your BTC profits... and you are also prepared to accept not buying back if the BTC price never comes back down.. so in that regard, it would help your situation to only engage in such practice if you are already overinvested into BTC and decently already in profits when you are regularly selling on the way up.

For someone who did something terrifically stupid to get into this mess, I think I am actually not so stupid.  After all, as I pleaded before, I was temporarily insane, not stupid. 

You are likely not stupid, even though we might question if there is much of a difference between being stupid and insane or even unable to control your emotions...

In any event, you seem to have the ability to structure your systems in advance but you fail/refuse to do it.

I pretty much already described what you need to do in terms of an overall long term strategy.. but you don't want to do it.. so what else can anyone do?  You can keep saying I almost struck it rich.  I almost made up for all of my losses of my last several gambles.  Maybe it does not even matter if you actually end up winning, because after you win you will just gamble it away on the next bet anyhow, no?

Jay's advice about DCA is sound for most people; indeed, I have passed it on to others before.  However, it does not fit my unusual circumstances.  In those circumstances, I was reasonably successful for the past few years until the moment that I took debt against BTC.

Don't use debt then.  DCA is a good foundational approach as well as combining it with lump sum investing and buying on dips, but DCA remains  the pillar around which those other strategies are built.. whether you might be front loading your DCA or tweaking it up or down fro time to time in order to attempt to prepare for buying on dips..or letting off on buying when BTC prices rise.. and of course, way more options come available to you when your portfolio grows much larger and you get into significant profits... which surely could take a lot of time, even quite a bit more than the 4 years that you say that you have been into BTC.. I have been in more than twice as long and surely each cycle feels better, but at the same time, we all make mistakes along the way too that will take away from some of our abilities to feel 100% confident.. but surely higher levels of confidence do seem like they come and surely if you have spent a decent amount of time building your portfolio, there should also be some reservations to gamble away large amounts of it too.. so there may well be a tendency for guys (and gal) who have built relatively large amounts of value to stay away from very much gambling or playing around and even 10% of your portfolio will seem like too much to be fucking around with.

So the longer that you are in, the more likely that you should be in profits.. especially with such a great asset like BTC and it is too bad, death_wish, that you are playing around so much that you are converting an almost inevitable winner into a loser.

Jay, this experience with margin has ruined years of my patient effort.  I had financial success - not riches, nowhere near real riches, but "this is finally beginning to look pretty good".  Then, I rapidly ruined it with a few little errors in judgment.  Even if I can salvage my remaining BTC, it may take me a long time to rebuild.

Well you are not likely to win or to fix your ways if you keep on playing around with playing with margin that might well convert an investment into a gamble.. which even if win many times, if you do not stack away your winnings, you may well end up losing all of your winnings on one bad results.. which seems to be a frequent story with gamblers.. they are winning and winning and winning and even to make up for earlier losses... but also at some point, you cannot make up for all the time that you could have been stacking with a more solid (but less exciting) formula for success.

[ImThour]

$25,600 on BUSD, $27,100 on USDT. ??


EDIT: There it is. $24.7k, This is the realized bitcoin price.

[LoyceV]

Hold On Please!
55%+ Down is already huge for me!

My family won't trust me anymore.

Why? Did you tell them to invest without telling them about the risks?