Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

not that I am optimistic or pessimistic but the 415-420 range for me was a psychological breaking point on selling for certain people as it can build a sodl momentum to bring us to a new ATL this year with the next exchange out of China saying our deposit option is going on hold because of said policy...I told my friends we'd see 3xx coins if 420 broke I don't mind being wrong but I hope they're ready to buy some (400-600 was where a couple wanted to grab 1 or 2 ), we got two ATMs downtown plus local bitcoins

[magicmexican]

Think next 2 hours could be interesting, usually its a fake 1h macD that wants to go up, but will crash further down instead, but who knowns, shit is very unpredictable

[JayJuanGee]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.  90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

Maybe I need a definition of terms; however, my understanding is that a billionaire does NOT gain a position by selling into a buy wall but instead by buying into a sell wall.  So, I must be missing something, here.

[ShroomsKit]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP.  Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

Yeah, i'm just a fud spreading bear who wants Bitcoin to go down.

[BBmodBB]

imo :: we will see 300zZz tomorrow...g'nite all! ~ Zzzzz

[Hypnoise]

Think next 2 hours could be interesting, usually its a fake 1h macD that wants to go up, but will crash further down instead, but who knowns, shit is very unpredictable

sale now, thank me later

[billyjoeallen]

Possible isn't the same as probable.

Pessimism isn't wisdom.  If you think there's a reason to assign low probability, that would be helpful to articulate.

We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are.

True.  We do know how well capitalized several of them are, however.  It's very similar to the Internet in the 90s.  Stuff is all over the map.  That kind of diversity is messy, and healthy.  Some degree of confidence that the population will produce survivors is provided by large numbers.

We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

Ignorance is not risk.  Structural vulnerability is a source of risk, though.  Macro is going to go to hell in a hand-basket.  QE can mask the underlying cancer with a high fever, but the patient is still terminal.  That implies both volatility and a strong upward path for BTC.

The regulatory front is pricing-benign (freedom-malignant), but also it can be routed around.  Uncertainties here are few.

I think you underestimate the strength of the fundamental trend, and the inexorable power of the price attractors.  It's like if there were no reason for BTC to go up, one would have to be invented, just to keep the universe from annihilating itself with a contradiction.

Is there a fair chance of a sustained price dip?  Yes.  Do I think it will happen?  Not beyond my ability to manage the mark-to-market risk by trading the volatility.

Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board.

Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact. 

I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading.

I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled.

[dreamspark]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

[JayJuanGee]

this is a very very dangerous market to be trading ... the latent demand is everywhere like an abundance of ions in the air before a thunderstorm, it could materialise a deluge from seemingly nowhere.

the world is primed for a new monetary medium, that is what has driven bitcoin this far already. Those who are dismissive of bitcoin as a super bubble are lost because they have no chart to compare. We have never seen a  collectible become monetised into a global medium of exchange, there are no charts to compare it with.

You trade this beast at your peril. It is a binary outcome. You're either in or out. For sure traders are gonna get burnt, badly.

Well said, and I believe that is the main reason that I am nearly terrified, if that's NOT too much of an exaggeration, to sleep in fiat... 

[billyjoeallen]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.  90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

Maybe I need a definition of terms; however, my understanding is that a billionaire does NOT gain a position by selling into a buy wall but instead by buying into a sell wall.  So, I must be missing something, here.

Either could happen if the wall is real.

[windjc]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

[dreamspark]

Wisdom is perceived as pessimism by the overly optimistic. I think the risks are higher than you do, but I don't think they are probable. There's no possibility of another flash dip to $400 and quick recovery because we are already there and there is no volume. I am hoping a test of $400 on volume will spring a bear trap, but support may waver if it's seriously tested. If $400 holds, there will be likely be plenty of volatility range trading until the whales who are lurking in the depths give up their hope for cheaper coins and get on board.

Ignorance is not risk, but it prevents you from accurately pricing risk. The future is not only unknown but unknowable. You can be ignorant in this game and still make money if you know that you are ignorant and do what the smart people do. The problem is that it's difficult to tell who's smart until after the fact. 

I have no confidence anymore in my ability to day trade. My margin trade wiped out all my day trading profits for the year and I'm lucky to have not gotten wiped out completely. Fortunately all that money originally came from buying and holding long term, so that's what I'm going back to until I can afford more day trading "tuition". This is the best time to buy in the last four months. Coming from me, that may be a sell signal, what the hell do I know? Don't trade long term on a short term trend and don't trade short term on a long term trend. It cost me $6000 to discover that. I don't want anybody else to make the same mistake. The down trend will continue until all the weak hands are shaken out. Volume tells us that hasn't happened yet, but volume could be misleading.

I'm not bearish right now. I'm not bullish. I just don't fuckin know. I am humbled.

That must have been a serious position to be wiped out on margin? Were you not able to deposit more just to cover than position due the general likelihood that even if its not in the next few weeks we are going back up at some point?

[magicmexican]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

I was thinking 2100'ish too, but last time we had like tons more volume and tons more of a momentum. I would be surprised that just the Huobi announcement would be enough to get us there, but i am not ruling it out.

[billyjoeallen]

One thing I do know: if you're a weak hand, if you're too scared or nervous, GTFO. We won't reverse this down trend until every last one of you motherfuckers sell.

If you are waiting on the sidelines or are considering making the plunge, realize this is bloodsport. I guarantee your metal will be tested. Shit's gonna get real.

[JayJuanGee]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter.

Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price?  Probably in the $300s?  or less?  Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more...   

Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena...   so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying.

His average buy in will be in single digits maybe mid double digits as are a lot of the people who have been around for a while. Hell I only started buying in summer 2013 but with a bit of trading and selling a nice chunk over $1000 even my average buy in is double digits. There are many here that will have taken out their original investment and be sitting in free coins. This is obvious by the way people speak. Its obvious when someone is sitting on a $30,000 investment that is currently worth closer to $20,000. The panic is obvious as they keep saying they're buying on the way down and they do not see it going any lower. Although I would like to see a rise again Im more than happy for the blood in the streets and the chance to pick up some really cheap BTC again. Its mainly noobs and dreamers who bought BTC anywhere near $1200 and most will have sold on the way down. The upside then is clear and obvious but I do feel a bloodbath will ensue in the meantime.

You have described my situation more or less.. he he he he ... . but I am NOT selling... except a little here and there when there may be some obvious downward action.. I do expect to be in the black at some point in the near future.. but i have patience to wait it out for a couple of years if needed and continue to buy and to dollar cost average and maybe trade a little if there seems some fairly obvious upside potential.

[dreamspark]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

Yes they haven't announced anything as far as I'm aware. However I know people keep saying that it is priced in but seriously after all the other exchanges have made their position clear who is expecting anything different from Huobi? I anticipate another short term dump but only by people to rebuy lower. I don't think there is many people in China who want to get out for good haven't already. The news that we get from there is sketchy at best but we and they have known since december this is coming.

All of this is just a good buying opportunity, as has been the case since around $600 people selling looking to rebuy lower after a 70% retraction do run the risk of being a victim of their own greed.

I think it is important to remember as well that a movement in price means vastly different margins for different players.

Would you dump your 1 coin now hoping to make $20 on it if we go to $400 or would you dump 30-40 coins (if that was say 10% of your stash) to rebuy $10-15 lower and make a tidy sum.

[windjc]

Margined shorts decreasing in volume on BFX. Margined longs increasing.

Amazing.

I imagine shorts covering have been probably about 15-20% of the overall buys today.

[DaRude]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.  90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

Maybe I need a definition of terms; however, my understanding is that a billionaire does NOT gain a position by selling into a buy wall but instead by buying into a sell wall.  So, I must be missing something, here.

Either could happen if the wall is real.

$400 is where you'll start seeing the spread growing more and more and exchanges stop following chinese. So in a total Chinese collapse i don't see it going much bellow $400 on healthy exchanges

[dreamspark]

My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.

I think Houbi is going to test 2100 soon. They are the only exchange that hasnt "announced" - am I correct?

2100 will drag the other markets near or to 400.

I was thinking 2100'ish too, but last time we had like tons more volume and tons more of a momentum. I would be surprised that just the Huobi announcement would be enough to get us there, but i am not ruling it out.

Also I think if Huobi hits 2100 then without a doubt we are going below $400, no questions asked.

[magicmexican]

I am still wondering if bottom would end up being standard vertical panic candle or slow and tested multiple times like a cup formation