Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eXPHorizon]

Beech please .............. Gold produces more Energy each day than the mining grid uses the whole year worldwide. The mining grid doesnt use little lemme tell you this much. Gold is the most conductive/resistant material that exist.

[JayJuanGee]

That's me in 2013, 2017 and 2021.

I had a goal set, sell at 100k. That worked out well, not.

I told myself - I'm not greedy so I'll sell at 80k. That worked out just at well.

we (since I include myself) just got out-wimped

No one could ever "out whimp" you, Biodom..



By the way, I had been thinking about the whimpy status lately.. and it was not even directly related to you Biodom,  but now my thoughts on the topic are not coming to me what those thoughts (if any?) would have had been...

Explanation

All hope is dashed away eith the current price to surge high for this week as we are now on weekends, more possibility to go down than rising is possible, nextweek is another option for a move to go high, the candlestick for the weee is made already, let's expect more and better offers from this new week speculations.

I get your point about most of the possible action happening during the week, but still none of those volume and/or price action dynamics are guaranteed, and the weekly candle closes at midnight UTC on Sunday night.. so we still have more than a day for the weekly candle to close (more than two days at the time of your post).. a lot can happen in either one day or two days.. and the price is largely right around the teetering point of either green or red.. in that regard, the BTC price merely has to be over $20,851 at the time of the close of the weekly candle for it to be green... so this week's candle could go either way (color), since at the time that I post this we are just barely above $21k.

[edited out]

There is a problem with certain models and data sets, as soon as they lead you to conclusions that are 180° false most of the time.

Of course it's about interpretations of onchain data.  But these interpretations were always based on logic.  
Just a simple example would be:  few coins on exchanges is interpreted as a sign for fewer selling and a higher probability for an upcoming price increase.

A lot of the data you could even backtest many years.

However, nowadays whales and big players know the OC data that we are all shown by Glasnost^tm and else, and they know what the data logically suggests.  Accordingly they push the market in the opposite direction to rip off all these onchain analytic believers..

Secondly, OC data can be tweaked to a degree to show a certain OC state of market behavior that simply is not there.


For me OC analysis is a kind of TA and it's nothing newbs should rely on.  That's why I'm vocal about it, so they don't fall for it.
I think we all know trading can be dangerous, especially in BTC, no matter your TA or your Glasnost subscription.  

For transparency FWIW...  I don't trade and I'm 95-99% in BTC all the time

I don't know how any of us can have high levels of confidence regarding any of these coin availability matters, and surely the topic has always been important and continues to be importance - especially when we likely have decent ideas that the BTC price is also being influenced by BTC that have no backing (i.e. fake BTC)..

So some of the recent crashes were severe enough to end up showing a decent number of folks who did not have the BTC that they claimed to have had... and surely take the bankrupcy filings of 3AC, Celsius and Voyager.. We saw that the they had ended up putting themselves into a position of largely all claiming to have the same BTC, but it still is not clear how many each of them have as compared to how much they were claiming to have. 

I know that I am being a bit loosey goosey in the way that I am framing this matter, but probably Luna/Terra/Do Kwon was an example of not having as many coins as they claimed that they had.  Yeah, several entities were also seeming to share in the overlap of coins that were supposedly available to back up the peg. and when the peg started to get lost, there seem to have been some of the BIGGER players who were able to get paid off first, but maybe simultaneous rug pulling and even lying about whether they were even trying to defend the peg with actual coins that they had... So they can disingenuously label it as a genuine attempt to create an algorithmic peg blah blah blah.. but the fact of the matter was that there were way too few coins within the systems and being sloshed around.. and sure some of the folks did get coins out of that system, but the more gullible ones who held until the end, and maybe even kept sending coins into that scam system are not getting coins back in part because of some aspects of rug pull, but more likely a larger culprit was that there were way too few coins in the system to back all the various theoretical yield earning schemes that were described through the various associated Ponzi-based products.

Part of my somewhat rambling point is that BTC price continues to be affected on the margins (and maybe even somewhat centrally) by coins that do not exist... and maybe every once in a while there will be a flushening of some of those players who go way out on the extremes of their overleveraging, rehypothecating or whatever it is that we want to describe them to have had been doing with their non existing coins (and sure sometimes partially existing coins that they may or may not end up being able to run away with).

[Wilhelm]

Wooow, huge price increase, what news caused it?
When moon?

wagmi  

Here is Mooon

Enjoy ☺️☺️

Only Bitcoin can make the moon-winds blow  

[Wilhelm]

Bitch please .............. Gold produces more Energy each day than the mining grid uses the whole year worldwide. The mining grid doesnt use little lemme tell you this much. Gold is the most conductive material that exist.

Mining gold uses fossil fuel
Mining Bitcoin uses electricity like renewables

[dragonvslinux]

I have met Yemen people, i have met Ukraininan people. The thing that seperates the two is Gratitude - You be the judge which ones repay kindness with gratitude .

I had a Russian ex. Her family, funnily enough, were Russian and Ukrainian, and my ex's mother married a Ukrainian, years after her Russian husband died. The Ukrainians I have met, who live outside of the Ukraine, have been very warm and decent people, and I have known quite a few now. The few Yemenis I have met, have been nice enough too though, though I have met and know many more Ukrainians and Russians.       


Regardless where they are from, all people, all humans.

Finally you are making sense!

[aesma]

I have a sell order at 100K$. For something like 5% of my stash. The difficulty will be to keep it when we'll be approaching that level, so I'm already preparing myself. When the price goes down under 100K I don't want to have regrets.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

@JJG

FYI...from https://brians.wsu.edu/2016/05/19/whimp/

If you use the much less common “whimp” instead people may regard you as a little wimpy.

That said, now I am a wimp for not selling at $60 or 50K? Hilarious.

Here is a bet (nonfunded): within 2-3 years anyone who sold at 50-60K would be considered a wimp, unless, of course, they sold at 60K, then bought back at 17.5-20K, but it is REALLY difficult to do if you already did something with that profit plus paid taxes on it; not impossible, but difficult. Every time I sell, I consider that bitcoin gone..but I haven't sell for a while.

[Wilhelm]

I have a sell order at 100K$. For something like 5% of my stash. The difficulty will be to keep it when we'll be approaching that level, so I'm already preparing myself. When the price goes down under 100K I don't want to have regrets.

You will regret it when it goes past $250k 

[Biodom]

I have a sell order at 100K$. For something like 5% of my stash. The difficulty will be to keep it when we'll be approaching that level, so I'm already preparing myself. When the price goes down under 100K I don't want to have regrets.

Make it 98-99K, lol...but, if we are in a normal circumstances, perhaps at least 10X from the actual bottom would be in play.
However, I decided to probably sell a chunk in 2025 regardless of the price; well, I would not do it if the price would be something silly (on the lower side).

EDIT Since we seem to replay the seventies (with major similarity being boomers vs millennials and the effect of those large cohorts on inflation), it stands to reason that stonks and bond markets might bottom by 2024 (with or without a flat all the way to 2030). Going long equities either on a spike down around 2024 and/or by the end of the decade should be one of those generational decisions: buy and forget about it for 20 years.

[Wilhelm]

Bitch please .............. Gold produces more Energy each day than the mining grid uses the whole year worldwide. The mining grid doesnt use little lemme tell you this much. Gold is the most conductive material that exist.

Mining gold uses fossil fuel
Mining Bitcoin uses electricity like renewables

ur still a s l e e p

anyway as long as i know that alaska that produces 40% of all gold is using organic oil as fuel ( they can say whatever they want now )



ps lemme tell you that plant based oil could be fuel for all mandkind

It's 1-2% of all the gold mined
It's still CO2 production even if their caterpillars run on bio avocado oil

Bitcoin mining could be done using solar only, not generating CO2.

Yes bio oil could be an alternative for the future. However I bet you can't generate the amount fuel consumed today using plant based alternatives...

[eXPHorizon]

i bet i alone can generate 3x the fuel needed for the whole world !?!


what people could be focusing is the output of the oil

[Queentoshi]

Bitcoin mining could be done using solar only, not generating CO2.

Renewable sources of energy should always be in consideration, apart from solar power which can be harnessed, we also have geothermal energy, tidal, wind, water amongst the list. Although implementation may be different in various places, it is best that the one most abundant to you is harnessed for bitcoin mining purpose.

[philipma1957]

Bitch please .............. Gold produces more Energy each day than the mining grid uses the whole year worldwide. The mining grid doesnt use little lemme tell you this much. Gold is the most conductive material that exist.

Mining gold uses fossil fuel
Mining Bitcoin uses electricity like renewables

Yeah but if they build ammonia/hydrogen engines it would be mineable  without fossil fuel.

Not that I argue for gold as a value store.

Gold has an issue which is on any give day a new huge supply could be found.

It is possible that gold is more common than copper which would be good for electrical builds but terrible for gold hodlers.

[nanobtc]

i bet i alone can generate 3x the fuel needed for the whole world !?!

what people could be focusing is the output of the oil

Frank Zappa, Yo' Mama 1979

[Refrain]
Maybe you should stay with yo' mama
She could do your laundry and cook for you
Maybe you should stay with yo' mama
You're really kinda stupid and ugly too
[Verse 1]
You ain't really made for bein' out in the street
Ain't much hope for a fool like you
Cause if you play the game, you will get beat

[eXPHorizon]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

Bitch please .............. Gold produces more Energy each day than the mining grid uses the whole year worldwide. The mining grid doesnt use little lemme tell you this much. Gold is the most conductive material that exist.

Mining gold uses fossil fuel
Mining Bitcoin uses electricity like renewables

Yeah but if they build ammonia/hydrogen engines it would be mineable  without fossil fuel.

Not that I argue for gold as a value store.

Gold has an issue which is on any give day a new huge supply could be found.

It is possible that gold is more common than copper which would be good for electrical builds but terrible for gold hodlers.

Making ammonia requires natural gas and has a "remove CO2" step in the process...

Edit: there is also a green production method

[JayJuanGee]

Those who are claiming that bottom will be at $17k seem to forget that we have already visited $17k this cycle.  

some where a while back I picked 15-17.

 

JUNE Ended But Records are still Counting the latest Glassnode report Say's.

Fuck Glassnode and their manipulation games.
Just my2ct

Hm?  They are really manipulating..?    I know that they had to reframe some data in recent times.... and surely we have seen all kinds of ways that entities can take advantage of their position in the bitcoin (crypto in this case?) space...  but maybe you are right..   those folks are fucking around with various aspects of the data.   Could be.  Could be.

It's def. a tool that's used for manipulation.
 
I'm quite sure the Glassnode guys at least know their tool will be utilized to paint a certain narrative / use a narrative by big players.  
It could also be easily worse and the Glasnost guys are in on it somehow.

Even though I have not yet come to such conclusion, there may well be some kind of legitimacy to your claims... much better than some seeming numerology claims, too.

I would imagine if there is a wee bit of manipulation or even timing of certain data releases, then surely those might ONLY be a kind of insider, or maybe shared with friends and I suppose others can end up using it (without even Glassnode guys actively sharing with them) merely by knowing the true data versus the exaggerated data.

JUNE Ended But Records are still Counting the latest Glassnode report Say's.

Fuck Glassnode and their manipulation games.
Just my2ct

Really
I'm sure 😊 you are good at analysis of all the Transections then. I can't put my whole week to analyze the transfer details to take next position and pack up with the coming time,

Yeah.. take the comment personally Hamza2424.. that makes a lot of senses.. .

I guess he didn't stomach well that a few days ago, I was asking him to post some Gay Christmas Eid ul-Adha Cards.  
Well knowing that his #ReligionOfPeace is so peaceful that its believers try to kill anyone for having the humor audacity to do so...

@Hamza2424
Sorry, but as long as your guy-in-the-sky cult can't laugh about its own ideas and even kills others who do so, your Eid ul-Adha blessings and best wishes to everyone aren't worth crap, seriously.

Sometimes I cannot really determine if some of the trolling is just getting more sophisticated (subtle) or if there just might be some ideas to bring some legitimate alternative perspectives.. and there could just be some legitimate attempts to work out some kind of balance - and maybe part of the reason why I don't really find too many problems to call into questions a variety of societal presumptions.. even though sometimes deviating into questionably relevant topics of religion, politics and/or sex.. and sex is not even as controversial.. but gosh some of the gender matters can become difficult and identity politics.. and even some of the diet stuff when finding folks in real life who actually might be legitimately tied to some certain ideas that can be difficult to discuss in a face-to-face manner.

It's not easy sometimes in the real world because we might meet people who seem to be nice people and even seem to have several good intentions, in the real world, but they have built their world around some ideas that are quite conflicting (with my own in this example)...

Sometimes all ideas are equal or discretionary.. but then other times they don't really seem to be, and that can be tough. because sometimes the other person will have equally strong views that I am wrong.. just take the meat eating versus vegan example. .I just don't consider vegan eating to be a good idea even though it can be tolerated quite well by some people.. maybe up to a certain age.. but lots of nutrition dangers. including kids (like infants - right after getting off breast milk.. ) being fed in those kinds of vegan ways  I have trouble with that.. just as an example of what I am talking about. ..

and, yeah of course, religions that have certain seeming illogical language proscriptions seem problematic mostly.. yet all of us probably have some language sensitivities too..

Which public #bitcoin miners will be the winners and losers of the bear market?

A Twitter thread by Jason Mallory

https://twitter.com/JMellerud/status/1541444212444614656

Some good miner analysis there. I found it at the end of the interesting thread posted here.

What's it mean though regarding price..?   Are some of those miners going out of business?  Are they going to have to sell levels of BTC that will not be sufficiently absorbed by the market?   What's the summary from the AlcoHoDL perspective?  We going down some more or no?  Inquiring minds want to know what uie pooie(nohomo) thinks.


 

[heslo]

Fucking great shit, dudes!!!  
It seems i have found a remedy against that Chronic Fatigue Pain-In-The-Ass.
Nattokinase, alternating with Lumbrokinase every other day, combined with Red Ginseng. I'm on this for a good week now.
Today i was roofing a house with friends, 8 hours of hard work in glaring sunlight, and i feel really tired, but not exhausted.
This would have sent me to bed after one or two hours,leaving me feeling exhausted and brainfoggy for a few more days. But today there's no brainfog, no muscle twitching/pains, no fatigue, no heart palpitations, no Post Excertional Malaise at all!
I*m feeling fucking great, i finally shaked off that fucking curse that got me for the last 11 years!

When i got a hint that Red Ginseng, combined with the two other enzymes, removed blood clotting and Small Fiber Neuropathy in Long Covid patients, i thought: "Hey, this might work with my postviral fatigue syndrome...", and it did.

When i watched the Bitcoin charts at the end of the day, it turned out to be the cream topping of all  

Now there are only the memory problems left, and that high sensibility to noise and light. I'm sure there's a way i can get rid of that too  

This is awesome! My wife has been hit with covid a second time and being a CFS sufferer it's really knocked the shit out of her. You able to PM me or post here the amounts of each you've been taking? If it can help her out I'm more than willing to try