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dreamspark
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April 04, 2014, 09:07:18 AM |
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What if April 15th rolls around and nothing happens just like the last deadlines that have trickled out of China. Its hardly ridiculous to think that while everyone sits around waiting for China news to drop the price again it generally creeps upwards leading to a couple of weeks of super worried bears
Rumour - we go down 100's. Good news - we go up 20 dollars. And in the interim we could easily go up $100 just waiting... Good think I have trading indicators to tell me what to do. Yes its fine for traders, any volatility either way is always good. That doesn't really help the mid term sellers that have sold in the expectation of bad news from China if it doesn't come what reason is there for a continued slide? Do you not think that without China we would be significantly higher than this and maybe in post gox recovery? |
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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April 04, 2014, 09:11:08 AM |
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You guys are still calling the China bank situation FUD even after btc38 and another Chinese exchange stopped deposits? Are you just going to continue to shout 'FUD' as they drop one by one around you, until there is only one left and you're still saying FUD because there's still that one... Is it because you're listening to Bobby Lee's statements? Bobby Lee is a pumper and a liar.
no because there is nothing to verify any plans of a ban. they just issued demands for compliance with the policy set out in dec 5. but now people are expecting a jan 31st deadline on april 15th So you acknowledge that the PBOC is demanding that the exchanges stop the banking, and that the exchanges are disobeying. How can this possibly be bullish? Your whole case is that that you believe that no enforcement action will ever happen - The PBOC or the chinese government is never going to enforce the demands of PBOC and actually shut down the accounts. Right? That's pretty weak. That was the same story in the last 3 false recoveries. It's like you're just asking for more punishment now. You know that inevitably it's going to happen, and that any recovery or bounce is false because we haven't actually recovered and moved on from Chinese banking influence. I suppose this one last little denial is perfect for a little bounce to fill in the rest of the triangle before it breaks down. How high will this bounce go TERA? I say no higher than 2800, probably 2750. I have trouble with reading the Chinese charts but, if this evolves into a serious bounce rally, Stamp could go anywhere from $500 to $580 with a most likely target of $540, all depending on how much hype there is. Interesting. I don't see this bounce carrying that far. But who knows. I think we get a little more than a 61% retracement on this last drop down and then at least a retest of the lows around $415. What bounce you talkin about ? It's been hovering around here all day, give or take. Could go up to 480 before saturday but it's a no-brainer, easy money short to the low 400's within the next week. That wall is gonna get bumped, if it's even real. Houbi has bounced 300 off its low. The bounce before that it went up 400. Bitstamp an BFX are not bouncing as much - about 10% off their lows. Since your waiting at 405, im curious - What would be your strategy if that wall gets eaten ? If my positions get taken out at 405 and we crash down through 400 on the same move, then I would ideally be watching for the real resistance area (probably before 380) to buy back in. Because I think there will be a sling shot rally. Then I would ideally ride that rally back up to whereever - probably at least 430-450 and maybe higher if it has legs. Then when that was confirmed as exhausted, I might pick a point to short again, as I think we would be retesting lows. And that is pretty much my current strategy. One of the things about bitcoin getting cheaper, is that an aggressive trader can now afford more BTC and, thus, do more with the same margin. On that point, if we were in the 200s I'd probably be able to leverage myself as a whale. |
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billyjoeallen
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
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April 04, 2014, 09:33:32 AM |
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As long as Huobi is running substantially below Bitstamp price, there is downward pressure through arbitrage. Miners coins are piling up and they are wondering how long they have to wait to sell them at a profit. Many of us long term holders are feeling the pinch of no BTC income for four months. These are the bearish factors that put me in 50/50 crypto/BTC, as bearish as I have ever been.
There can be no sustained rally until some other factors outweigh the downward pressure. There will be no Chinese reversal without a policy change from the PBoC because the uncertainty and possibility of the ban on bank deposits being enforced. If the ban is aggressively enforced, $400 level will be seriously tested and may not hold.
The two most likely scenarios for the next two weeks are either down or sideways. I have two limit buy orders north of the $400 wall to aid in the defense, but also two sell orders south of $500 to trade any bull trap. I'm keeping some fiat in reserve in the event of the very real but unlikely event of a punch through $400 and a free fall to near $266, the top of last April's rally. I estimate the odds of this disaster to be 40% and many think I am too optimistic.
I just don't see Big Money getting on board until a solid uptrend is established or at least something that reasonably passes for stability.
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Davyd05
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April 04, 2014, 09:34:05 AM |
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yea and a whale could leverage himself as an ocean then.
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dreamspark
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April 04, 2014, 09:38:00 AM |
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You don't need big money to get on board in massive amounts to have a rally that can change the trend. If people stop selling and all the previous sellers begin to buy back in then a rally leading to a trend reversal can occur. I agree new big money needs to come aboard to take us towards new ATH but to break the current downtrend, not so much.
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bitwhizz
Legendary
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Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
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April 04, 2014, 09:42:43 AM |
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My main concern are these.  They are moon bears. They live in China and have moon shape chest mark. China...moon...bear  HOLY CRAP what happens when these guys are unleashed !!! I guess we found out what happens  |
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spooderman
Legendary
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Activity: 1638
Merit: 1022
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April 04, 2014, 09:49:22 AM |
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My main concern are these. They are moon bears. They live in China and have moon shape chest mark. China...moon...bear HOLY CRAP what happens when these guys are unleashed !!! I guess we found out what happens All the more reason to CHOO TO MARS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE |
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chessnut
Legendary
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Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 04, 2014, 10:06:12 AM |
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 wedge consolidation. this may play out over a long time, and I would expect it to break upwards without breaching 430. |
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stereotype
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1000
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April 04, 2014, 10:07:20 AM |
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Ok bitcoin, I will go in the garden now to plant various bushes and I want you to stay exactly where you are while I am away, ok?
Don't move!
Ok, i admit, i might have uttered those very words to myself.  |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 04, 2014, 10:08:10 AM |
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ok bitcoin, now's your chance. go go go! fly!
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igorr
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April 04, 2014, 10:14:55 AM |
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Bitcoin will never rise again.
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Le Happy Merchant
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April 04, 2014, 10:15:24 AM |
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Bitcoin will never rise again.
Quoted. Thats a STRONG prediction. I hope you aren't all out of the market. When people start predicting this kind of thing, the price tends to go nuts. |
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spooderman
Legendary
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Activity: 1638
Merit: 1022
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April 04, 2014, 10:16:38 AM |
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Ok bitcoin, I will go in the garden now to plant various bushes and I want you to stay exactly where you are while I am away, ok?
Don't move!
Planting "various bushes" while bitcoin stars not too far from 420  |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 04, 2014, 10:17:51 AM |
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Bitcoin will never rise again.
I bet you 100 Bitcoins that it will  |
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Searing
Copper Member
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1464
Clueless!
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April 04, 2014, 10:19:06 AM |
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Bitcoin will never rise again.
I bet you 100 Bitcoins that it will that will be a pretty safe bet if he is correct  |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 04, 2014, 10:21:14 AM |
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Somebody call Fonzie QUICK!! we bout to break out!
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koryu
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April 04, 2014, 10:24:11 AM |
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when people start getting bullish, better keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. we have a little wave up on average volume. reversal not confirmed yet. but i would still be surprise to see lower 400. |
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silverston
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April 04, 2014, 10:24:41 AM |
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Somebody call Fonzie QUICK!! we bout to break out!
fonzie allready ignored by me)) |
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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April 04, 2014, 10:25:39 AM |
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when people start getting bullish, better keep an eye on the 4 hour chart. we have a little wave up on average volume. reversal not confirmed yet. but i would still be surprise to see lower 400. I bet before some nutter bet 10BTC that it would. good odds. (I bet that it wouldnt) |
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