Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

However, we are currently witnessing all the bears, even the pretty smart ones, going full retard. It kinda boggles my mind? Never seen anything like this before.

Care to give an example of what you mean?

To me at least, the delusionally bullish posts ("that's it! trend reversal choo choo!") seem pretty balanced right now with the bear FUD ("Single digits, mark my words!").

But maybe i'm biased...

I feel like the posts are pretty balanced atm too.

[JorgeStolfi]

You're still a paid troll

Would someone please explain how one becomes a paid troll? Perhaps I can bill them for a hundred bucks (old-fashioned money, of course) for every insult I get here. 

[oda.krell]

It's trivially easy to buy and sell bitcoin face to face. Why should we care if bitcoin fails by your definition? If is is being used, it is succeeding to us.

If bitcoin is banned (again, an hypothetical scenario -- I don't think it will be), BitPay will close.  You will not be able to use bitcoin to pay for purchases on internet stores lke Amazon and Overstock.  You will not be able to pay for hotels, travel or entertainment,.  You will not be able to use bitcoins to buy newspaper, coffe, groceries, pay the rent.  You may be lucky to find a plumber or real estate agent that accepts bitcoin, but it will be risky (IRS etc.) Your salary will be in old money and you will not have any legal way to convert it to bitcoin.  If you pay for something in advance with bicoin, and the other side does not deliver, you cannot complain to the police.  And so on.

So, what would you use your bitcoins for?  

knee-jerk deference to authority

Although many people (myself included) are unhappy about the government they have, the vast majority actually wants a strong government with effective laws,  police and courts -- because they know what happens when those things fail.

Your premises are absurd, which implies any conclusion can be derived, and hence all are possible.

Er, which premises are absurd?

Agreed on the point you just made (if BTC is illegal, it will never take off the way it would otherwise), but disagreed on the entire discussion:

It is extremely unlikely, imo, that Bitcoin will be outlawed entirely. Any country doing so faces the major risk of missing out on huge economic growth potential through BTC related jobs, industries, etc.

Banning BTC won't happen in the Western industrialized nations (and Japan). Regulation, on the other hand, will come (and we will have to find ways to work around it )

[hdbuck]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses dont need transaction tools. they need water & food.
tsss 

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses doesnt need financial tools. they need water & food.
tsss

And how are they going to loan money to build the infrastructure needed to get that?  See microcredits.

[Adrian-x]

You're still a paid troll

Would someone please explain how one becomes a paid troll? Perhaps I can bill them for a hundred bucks (old-fashioned money, of course) for every insult I get here.  

One way is earn tenyar at a university.
Another is proffit off Bitcoin fud.

[aminorex]

It's trivially easy to buy and sell bitcoin face to face. Why should we care if bitcoin fails by your definition? If is is being used, it is succeeding to us.

If bitcoin is banned (again, an hypothetical scenario -- I don't think it will be), BitPay will close.  You will not be able to use bitcoin to pay for purchases on internet stores lke Amazon and Overstock.

I thought it was your position that none of those markets were accretive to the value of btc.  Have you repented?

  You will not be able to pay for hotels, travel or entertainment,. 

Hotels, travel perhaps, but entertainment?  Depends on what you find entertaining.  Blackmarket means vice.

You will not be able to use bitcoins to buy newspaper, coffe, groceries, pay the rent. 

That remains to be seen.  It would depend on your landlord, your barrista, your newsie.  It doesn't matter really, as long as the blackmarket is liquid.  You cash out when you want to spend fiat.

You may be lucky to find a plumber or real estate agent that accepts bitcoin, but it will be risky (IRS etc.) Your salary will be in old money and you will not have any legal way to convert it to bitcoin.  If you pay for something in advance with bicoin, and the other side does not deliver, you cannot complain to the police.  And so on.

Yes, that is pretty fair characterization of a black market.

So, what would you use your bitcoins for? 

Store of value, medium of exchange.  Free market transactions.  Black markets are free markets.

Your premises are absurd, which implies any conclusion can be derived, and hence all are possible.

Er, which premises are absurd?

Is a black bitcoin market possible on the internet, if one cannot convert cash to bitcoin annimously[sic]...?

The premise that one cannot convert cash to bitcoin anonymously is an absurd one.  

I will admit that it may be inconvenient.  It make have risks which make you personally averse to it.  It may be economically inefficient.  It may require some technical expertise.  Nonetheless, it remains entirely feasible for a motivated and competent party to convert cash into bitcoin anonymously.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses doesnt need financial tools. they need water & food.
tsss

And how are they going to loan money to build the infrastructure needed to get that?  See microcredits.

yea right. they cant even loan fiat. you expect them to loan satoshies from greedy wasps that speculated the shit outta bitcoin to make it rise >10k$.
much infrastructures

[spooderman]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses dont need transaction tools. they need water & food.
tsss 

so you're saying people with bank accounts don't need food or water?

[Rampion]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

Because of its design Bitcoin won't be able to support real-world payment volume if the price per coin is not high, thus pure speculation (which currently amounts to 99% of the BTC transactions) is just making it easier for companies like Square to adopt it. In fact, the wild speculation on Bitcoin's future price is precisely what is making the price to reach quickly a level that makes it possible for bitcoin to support a real economy transaction volume.

Bitcoin has everything to change the world, quickly: it is a huge innovation that solves real life problems and has numerous applications apart from being "digital cash", and it has also built-in a huge financial incentive that makes its adoption to go viral - nothing speeds adoption faster than the promise of future wealth.

[aminorex]

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses dont need transaction tools. they need water & food.
tsss 

Bitcoin is not only a transaction tool.  It is also a store of value.  Unbanked people will benefit greatly from both, as it will enable economic development which would otherwise be infeasible.  And it is only economic development which makes the satisfaction of those needs to which you averr sustainable.

[hdbuck]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses dont need transaction tools. they need water & food.
tsss  

so you're saying people with bank accounts don't need food or water?

no im saying that the unbanked masses main concern is access to food and water. people with bank accounts litterally take dumps in drinkable water. so just stop pretending that bitcoin will change those unbanked masses lives. What should change is the centralisation of the world's resources.

[Rampion]

The first person to panic wins if you get to buy back in lower.

This is true, first person to panic buy wins as well cause you get more coins for your mullah!

Do you honestly think there is more greed than fear in this market right now?

You only have fear when you are close to the very bottom. Those who feel euphoria or fear always lose, because they buy near the top and sell near the bottom.

Just buy when this forum is bloated by FUD-spreader trolls, and sell when the thread is completely bloated by train pictures.

For the record: I'm buying myself, going in the $300 range is possible in my book, but no way we are going below $266. If we really go below $266 (VERY unlikely) I'd expect a long, multi-month bear market, but I'm betting on it NOT happening.

I'm more of an "It's always darkest before it goes pitch black" kind of guy. I have many times more coins in cold storage so I'm using my trading account as a hedge right now. Worse thing that can happen to me is that I'm stuck with tens of thousands in fiat while my main stash rockets up in value. I think I can live with that. Locking in profit on coins I bought in two digits may be a fear move, but it's the smart play. How many people with much much more BTC than me have to do the same thing for price to crater? Not Many.

I would advise you to take the profits during uptrends and following a rational plan (when we will hit this price I will sell x% of my stash, etc.) - I hate stating the obvious, but I'd avoid selling during dowtrends and buying during uptrends.

[spooderman]

I know this is the wrongest place ever to mention this, but I wish the price would just plummet to the point where all the people who are in this for the money would disappear. Bitcoin is about so much more than it's dollar value. We are building something more important than the internet, and it's like people are obsessing over the price of domain names.

You are being very unrealistic if you are of the belief that getting rid of speculators is helpful to BTC... In the end, the speculators are likely to make or break BTC... Speculators are likely needed in order to drive incentives to build infrastructure and to get other people interested - expanding the user base.

good point. I shouldn't hang around here, I need to become that guy that makes bitcoin practical for the unbanked masses.

unbanked masses dont need transaction tools. they need water & food.
tsss  

so you're saying people with bank accounts don't need food or water?

no im saying that the unbanked masses main concern is access to food and water. people with bank accounts litterally take dumps in drinkable water. so just stop pretending that bitcoin will change those unbanked masses lives. What should change is the centralisation of the world's resources.

if your currency is the Zimbabwe dollar, bitcoin will change your life.

[oda.krell]

no im saying that the unbanked masses main concern is access to food and water. people with bank accounts litterally take dumps in drinkable water. so just stop pretending that bitcoin will change those unbanked masses lives. What should change is the centralisation of the world's resources.

It is an incredibly narrow (and supremely arrogant) point of view to consider anyone who is not "taking dumps in drinkable water" to be so poor they must be starving, sub-Saharan Africa style.

There are upwards of 2 billion people that could immensely benefit from BTC going mainstream, and, no, they are neither starving nor US/Euro level rich.

[spooderman]

no im saying that the unbanked masses main concern is access to food and water. people with bank accounts litterally take dumps in drinkable water. so just stop pretending that bitcoin will change those unbanked masses lives. What should change is the centralisation of the world's resources.

It is an incredibly narrow (and supremely arrogant) point of view to consider anyone who is not "taking dumps in drinkable water" to be so poor they must be starving, sub-Saharan Africa style.

There are upwards of 2 billion people that could immensely benefit from BTC going mainstream, and, no, they are neither starving nor US/Euro level rich.

+1 third world countries have a middle class too.

[Adrian-x]

[quote author=Mervyn_Pumpkinhead link=topic=178336.msg6113718#msg6113718 date=1396892555

Well said..
I also agree that it would have been healthier for the development environment of bitcoin to have a year long resting period. I'm afraid that this isn't possible any more since the competition will also keep pushing. The word is out that it could be possible to offer monetary services separate from global banking. There are smart and powerful people and organizations developing their own variants, that won't be made public before they are considered perfect.
I personally think that the main thing that needs development is the coin supply. Fixed coin supply with increasing deflation makes the currency too attractive for speculative play. As long as there are good opportunities for speculative play, then there won't ever be price stability, and that is the main thing that creates a quality currency.
[/quote]

I found this a problem when I got into Bitcoin, instead of the Step Function to introduced new coins I thought a normal distribution function would work better.

I have since concluded that at this stage extreme volitility is a feature not a bug and I think it is distributing acceptably.

[billyjoeallen]

It's trivially easy to buy and sell bitcoin face to face. Why should we care if bitcoin fails by your definition? If is is being used, it is succeeding to us.

If bitcoin is banned (again, an hypothetical scenario -- I don't think it will be), BitPay will close.  You will not be able to use bitcoin to pay for purchases on internet stores lke Amazon and Overstock.  You will not be able to pay for hotels, travel or entertainment,.  You will not be able to use bitcoins to buy newspaper, coffe, groceries, pay the rent.  You may be lucky to find a plumber or real estate agent that accepts bitcoin, but it will be risky (IRS etc.) Your salary will be in old money and you will not have any legal way to convert it to bitcoin.  If you pay for something in advance with bicoin, and the other side does not deliver, you cannot complain to the police.  And so on.

So, what would you use your bitcoins for? 

knee-jerk deference to authority

Although many people (myself included) are unhappy about the government they have, the vast majority actually wants a strong government with effective laws,  police and courts -- because they know what happens when those things fail.

Bad things happen when strong governments fail, and when weak governments fail, and even when strong governments don't fail, and when weak governments become strong governments. They are just different bad things. The chaos that follows a failed state is a product of that failed state. That's Why America didn't turn into Somalia when the British government failed here but Russia turned into a Kleptocracy when the Soviet Union failed.

A monopoly government cannot be a strong government because the lack of competition makes it weak. It rots from the inside out just like private monopolies do. Some monopoly governments are stronger than others, but I don't think any of them are strong enough to accomplish what you want them to accomplish. If you want effective laws, common law is generally better and more effective than legislative edicts. Best practices emerge over time and are usually not handed down by you ivory tower types.

To answer your question, if Bitcoin was outlawed, I would use it to move my capital out of the country. Capitial controls are a strong signal that the time to get out of Dodge is coming soon. Hopefully many more people from other countries will have to use it for that purpose before I do and when they do, I will provide them with liquidity.