Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bassclef]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

[jonoiv]

Seems like there is lots of buying pressure stopping the price from dropping, I would guess the bottom has been reached then and I will have to close my shorts. 

I would wait another hour or 2 before making your mind up on that.  

[billyjoeallen]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

I am not the one that needs saving right now. I'm 90% fiat. (in trading account).

[jonoiv]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders.  And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down.  how will you get this reversal of fortunes?  

[adamstgBit]

there isn't much buying or selling
after a shit storm of Bubble poping, GOXING BANNING and extreme FUD
i would love to see the market just trading in a range say 400-500 on low volume for a while... let poeple buy and sell in a calm and orderly fashion, instead of panic panic panic now now now!!!
so ya really hoping low volume stays low, and the FUD cloud dissipates

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

Seems like there is lots of buying pressure stopping the price from dropping, I would guess the bottom has been reached then and I will have to close my shorts. 

Wha? Am I reading this correctly??

[keewee]

3x 200btc buys on Stamp in the last 20 minutes. Someone's keen

[billyjoeallen]

mini short-covering rally. Maybe last chance for bulls to bail. I'd love to see $455 so I can unload the rest of my BTC.

[bassclef]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders.  And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down.  how will you get this reversal of fortunes?  

The goal is to spot it before it completes: Recognize the volume pattern and the fact that head & shoulder patterns (and variations thereof) occur all over the place in historical BTC trend reversals. So buy the right shoulder and short the distance from the head to the neckline, which it will probably bounce back off of.

MACD complicates things (if I use it I like the 12/24hr version much better) and one can use EMA lines to a similar effect.

Identifying trends and reversals is bread & butter trading and is more reliable than indicators, which are simply there to help.

[podyx]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders.  And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down.  how will you get this reversal of fortunes? 

The goal is to spot it before it completes: Recognize the volume pattern and the fact that head & shoulder patterns (and variations thereof) occur all over the place in historical BTC trend reversals. So buy the right shoulder and short the distance from the head to the neckline, which it will probably bounce back off of.

MACD complicates things (if I use it I like the 12/24hr version much better) and one can use EMA lines to a similar effect.

Identifying trends and reversals is bread & butter trading and is more reliable than indicators alone.

What exactly are u saying?

Are u saying we should put on our space suits?

[adamstgBit]

mini short-covering rally. Maybe last chance for bulls to bail. I'd love to see $455 so I can unload the rest of my BTC.

most shorts are probably waiting for the 15th to cover

i bet there hoping we'll drop into major support at 380ish

[jonoiv]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders.  And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down.  how will you get this reversal of fortunes?  

The goal is to spot it before it completes: Recognize the volume pattern and the fact that head & shoulder patterns (and variations thereof) occur all over the place in historical BTC trend reversals. So buy the right shoulder and short the distance from the head to the neckline, which it will probably bounce back off of.

MACD complicates things (if I use it I like the 12/24hr version much better) and one can use EMA lines to a similar effect.

Identifying trends and reversals is bread & butter trading and is more reliable than indicators, which are simply there to help.

April 2nd.  looked the same and look what happened next.   That trend line needed to break through has only been breached once since December.  What makes you so sure, it will happen now?

EDIT:  2nd April

[adamstgBit]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

[bassclef]

What exactly are u saying?

Are u saying we should put on our space suits?

Expect turbulence as we go up... but bring your sunglasses and sunscreen for the summer.

[JayJuanGee]

there isn't much buying or selling
after a shit storm of Bubble poping, GOXING BANNING and extreme FUD
i would love to see the market just trading in a range say 400-500 on low volume for a while... let poeple buy and sell in a calm and orderly fashion, instead of panic panic panic now now now!!!
so ya really hoping low volume stays low, and the FUD cloud dissipates

you are "loving" for the demise of your own thread... hehehe...

[jonoiv]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

I'm ready to turn bull when I see it.

But so far not a sniff. 

[bassclef]

Low volume at $445 is bad news. We're going lower. A month ago I'd be selling my internal organs to get BTC this cheap and nobody's buying.

Do not fear, the god of the 6h Huobi inverse head & shoulders is with you.

The final shoulder in the pattern you think you are seeing needs to go up to form a reverse head n shoulders.  And as the 1, 2, 4 hour MACD are all going down.  how will you get this reversal of fortunes?  

The goal is to spot it before it completes: Recognize the volume pattern and the fact that head & shoulder patterns (and variations thereof) occur all over the place in historical BTC trend reversals. So buy the right shoulder and short the distance from the head to the neckline, which it will probably bounce back off of.

MACD complicates things (if I use it I like the 12/24hr version much better) and one can use EMA lines to a similar effect.

Identifying trends and reversals is bread & butter trading and is more reliable than indicators, which are simply there to help.

April 4th.  looked the same and look what happened next.   That trend line needed to break through has only been breached once since December.  What makes you so sure, it will happen now?

Zoom out and use 6/12/24h charts, much more reliable and filters out noise. April 4 was the bottom of head.

For historical reference look at 24h chart from ~6/20 to 7/29. Massive head & shoulder reversal, see the resemblance? Neckline slopes downward, as it often does. It bounces back off it on 8/9. The difference then is that then, we had a single final capitulation event. This time we have a double final capitulation event, making this reversal slightly smaller in proportion. But it has been doubly painful, for sure.

That's my take. This could be the left shoulder of something bigger. But the pattern would still hold true, unless it didn't. Isn't trading fun

[billyjoeallen]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

[adamstgBit]

"an old trend may not be your friend."

we're in a reversal... weather it drops lower or not is irrelevant.

How can it be a reversal without resolution on the China Issue? The Chinese have hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of BTC to dump if they panic when one of the major exchanges goes dark. They will be a minor force for fiat flow into BTC for a long time and a potentially major flow out. Trends don't reverse on their own. Something has to happen, like when Silk Road closed or when Gox finally died. At the minimum, support has to be tested with volume.

the China issue is done. I seriously doubt poeple in china only now heard that china banned bitcoin.

and guess what, chinese poeple like HODLING too....