Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels. 

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet.  Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

I meant permabull active traders with open orders. Guys like me staring staring at the graphs, wanting the arrow to move up like the way some rabid sports fans think that their team still has a prayer when the coach has already substituted third string players and the other fans are starting to leave.

never leave before it's over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDbEX666G3Y

go oilers!

The weird thing about day trading is that you actually do have the ability to move the graph, but only in the wrong direction. You can't move it by sheer force of will, so we come here to talk our book, hoping to convince other traders to see what *should* happen. It's probably futile, but sometimes crowd participation gives your team that tiny extra lift it needs.

[octaft]

This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.

Don't forget, there is going to be a point where some people who are still in the green from buying in at, say, $150-250, may look to take profit if they think it will eventually sink below that.

[Pruden]

It's just that no bet is certain while China does not resolve.

China really is not a big element, its volume is mostly westerners taking advantage of zero-fees, but I can't fight the markets, so China it is.

[billyjoeallen]

This feels totally diffferent then the last 2 drops to 400. Almost everyone saw those flash crashes coming and that it would quickly rebound within hrs, which it did.

Here we are in the low/mid 400's for over a week and there is no mad rush to buy coins at this insanely 'discounted' price.

Permabulls are hoping for a hail-mary pass, but i just dont see it, i dont think we've grinded this far down for not at least a vicious 400 retest.

Sharks are waiting in the wings patiently. 400 is key, if that breaks watch the fuck out, it could drop like a rock to the 200's. This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.

That's exactly how I see it too, but Bitcoin isn't known for being predictable.

[solex]

This feels totally diffferent then the last 2 drops to 400. Almost everyone saw those flash crashes coming and that it would quickly rebound within hrs, which it did.

Here we are in the low/mid 400's for over a week and there is no mad rush to buy coins at this insanely 'discounted' price.

Permabulls are hoping for a hail-mary pass, but i just dont see it, i dont think we've grinded this far down for not at least a vicious 400 retest.

Sharks are waiting in the wings patiently. 400 is key, if that breaks watch the fuck out, it could drop like a rock to the 200's. This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.

That's exactly how I see it too, but Bitcoin isn't known for being predictable.

Bitcoin is a paradigm change. That's why it is not going to languish around $450 for a year. That might happen to a zombie dinosaur like Western Union (massively underperforming the S&P by the way), but not btc.

For interest:
http://quotes.wsj.com/WU/interactive-chart
big drop the day after the Vancouver ATM and never fully recovered.

[TeeBone]

This feels totally diffferent then the last 2 drops to 400. Almost everyone saw those flash crashes coming and that it would quickly rebound within hrs, which it did.

Here we are in the low/mid 400's for over a week and there is no mad rush to buy coins at this insanely 'discounted' price.

Permabulls are hoping for a hail-mary pass, but i just dont see it, i dont think we've grinded this far down for not at least a vicious 400 retest.

Sharks are waiting in the wings patiently. 400 is key, if that breaks watch the fuck out, it could drop like a rock to the 200's. This market is dying to shake out all the gamblers who bought in at 1K.

That's exactly how I see it too, but Bitcoin isn't known for being predictable.

True. That's why im split up, 40% trading (all fiat right now) and 60% savings. However, if 400 is breached i probably will be dipping into my savings to sell some more.

[EuroTrash]

Not a single trade in Stamp in the last 17 minutes. The site is up. Is the trading API down or simply no one is trading?

[solex]

Not a single trade in Stamp in the last 17 minutes. The site is up. Is the trading API down or simply no one is trading?

Just getting a coffee

[shmadz]

Not a single trade in Stamp in the last 17 minutes. The site is up. Is the trading API down or simply no one is trading?

Just getting a coffee

not just any coffee I hope?

https://i.imgur.com/pU2lyce.jpg

[JayJuanGee]

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.  

I know this one guy....

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period.  So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

I think that 450 is a nice price point and I have bought there on the last 2 dips; this one, I am sitting out.

the point I'd really like to address is the part I bolded: I don't think there are many savvy traders that have remained "in for the long term" when we've lost 50% in what? 2-3 months?

I get the feeling that the next bump will be big, and I think many of those that sold at $1000+ were people that bought much lower, and they remember the ride, and would like to do it again.

just don't forget to take profits when the price goes in your favour.

:edit: "taking profit" is a term I used for NFL betting, that's where I learned to trade. and when you're up, you better take some profits off the table, or you will lose it all. (you can consider "profit" as either extra fiat for hookers and blow, or skimming extra bitcoin and saving it for a rainy day

I agree with you completely about the need to skim profits in accordance with whatever scheme is comfortable for the investor.  My skimming will probably be in the form of reallocation of my total investment portfolio.. especially if there are gains in one area, as compared with another)..  So for example, if I had been into BTC in early 2013, then ended up realizing an unexpected 10 times gain, that may have likely triggered me to reallocate the gains into other areas.. .or maybe engaging in some consumption, as you mentioned.

My perspective remains somewhat skewed by the fact that I began investing in BTC in late November 2013.  Accordingly, my BTC portfolio remains in the red, even though I have been buying BTC as the price goes down in order to bring down my average price per BTC - which currently is around $640 - though I started at $1,200. 

When I got into BTC, I realized that there had been a recent and stupendous bull run, so that caused me to plan out my investment over the next several months... rather than sinking in a lump-sum at that particular moment.    Surely, in retrospect, there are probably ways that I could have played trades (or made my buys) in ways that would have caused even a lower average price per BTC.

At the time that I first got into BTC, I was also thinking that my BTC investment would likely run for at least 2 years, absent some catastrophic occurrence that may undermine the fundamentals of BTC with part of my motivation to diversify away from the dollar, since the remainder of my investments (which is a much larger proportion) are tied into the performance of the dollar.  I am sure that many of us in the bitcoin sphere realize the amazingly high level of printing press matters going on with the dollar and also some of the threats of US government shut downs, and those seemingly irresponsible governmental behaviors have caused me considerable concerns about having so much of my total investment dependent upon the ongoing value of the dollar - especially when I am also planning overseas travel.

So,yes, I do NOT have any major problem with floating around in the $450 range for a while - even though it would be a bit more comfortable floating in the black rather than in the red... but I have already banked on the possibility that my total BTC investment could go belly up.. so the worse case scenario would be if it kept going down and sucking out my money.... which I really doubt will occur based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin and there continue to be lots of interesting value adding developments in the bitcoin sphere.

[Threebits]

Bitfinex passes proof of solvency audit:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=560457.0

Sigh,  another pseudo-audit trying to fool people with a thick cloud of colorful technological smoke.

As the "auditor" admits, the exchange can easily fool him about the amount of bitcoins that it owns.   What is the point of doing that "audit", then?

Besides falsifying their BTC holdings, the exchange can falsify the other half of the "audit", too.  Suppose the exchange is short of 100,000 coins, but the owner has a cat named Tibonne and client TibonneTheCat has 100,000 BTC in its account.  The exchange creates a version of their database omitting that account.  The auditor verifies that the total of balances in that doctored database is less than the bitcoins that the exchange supposedly owns.  Using the fancy cryptographic machinery, all the other clients verify that their balances are included in the database.  So?

And the audit also did not check the sum of the MONEY balances against the exchange's bank accounts and outstanding money debts.

An "audit" is not a real audit if it checks only half of the company's books, or if it has no way to check whether the books are complete that is outside the control of the audited entity.  This "audit" fails miserably on both counts.

A potential "auditor" who is smart, honest, and mindful of his reputation should refuse to take part in such a meaningless exercise -- that will mislead clients about the safety of the exchange, and could make him an involuntary accomplice of a scam.  See Roger Ver's "audit" of MtGOX.

Does that mean there won't any meaningful audit for exchanges account?

Indeed this is obvious. Why all the experts don't see this? Or, people do not want to see?

Any chance to have real audit? Does a real audit mean that must be anominated?

[billyjoeallen]

China is going nuts. Moving average crossover on the 4 hr chart. Let's see if this has any steam.

[chessnut]

here look at this line I fit on the graph. cool huh. (break out)

[molecular]

Besides falsifying their BTC holdings, the exchange can falsify the other half of the "audit", too.  Suppose the exchange is short of 100,000 coins, but the owner has a cat named Tibonne and client TibonneTheCat has 100,000 BTC in its account. 

Then either TibonneTheCat is collaborating in the fraud and also lending 100,000 BTC to the exchange knowing full well it doesn't have it (so basically making a very risky investment) or the exchange runs the risk of TibonneTheCat discovering his balance not being included and making an effective fuzz about it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KeyserSoze]

An "audit" is not a real audit if it checks only half of the company's books, or if it has no way to check whether the books are complete that is outside the control of the audited entity.  This "audit" fails miserably on both counts.

But this time it's different.

[billyjoeallen]

here look at this line I fit on the graph. cool huh. (break out)

Looks like $445 was the double bottom for now unless some random anvil falls out of the sky, which only seems to happen when I'm the one standing underneath it.

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone else get the feeling like the dread is starting to sink into the last of the permabulls? I know that feeling. Maybe it's projection, buy I can almost hear the hope dying.

Probably gonna need a much worse situation than this... before the dread really begins to kick in... somewhere around 1 year of floating between $400 and $500 or maybe some additional downward movement slowly over the next six months bringing prices to lower $300 would begin to increase some dread levels. 

I'm thinking the circumstances are NOT quite dire enough yet, especially reviewing some of the history in which the price reduced to 1/16th... wow... we are NOT even close to that, yet.  Maybe we are getting closer to the 1/3rd reduction territory... so seems that there is a ways to go before dread really will start to materialize... I would think.

I meant permabull active traders with open orders. Guys like me staring staring at the graphs, wanting the arrow to move up like the way some rabid sports fans think that their team still has a prayer when the coach has already substituted third string players and the other fans are starting to leave.

That's a good visual....   even though the situation may NOT be as dire as you make it out to be...

We could get a break out in either direction... .. and that possibility for either direction is supported somewhat by the fact that we have been lingering in this mid-$450 territory for so long.  Maybe the downward momentum was snuffed out to some extent over the last few days, so additional downward momentum can only come if the negative news has a sufficient shock value... Never put it past the Chinese to fail to come out with some illogical, incomprehensible and ambiguous news releases... They will likely come out with something ridiculous.. and the question will be whether that is enough to cause sufficient downward movement to maybe even cut some losses...

At this point, i would be surprised if within the next few days, we were to return to prices below $430 for more than 30 minutes (maybe a 35% chance, absent additional negative news).

On the upside, i would be surprised if within the next few days, we were to return to prices above $480 for more than 30 minutes (maybe a 40% chance, absent additional news).

[shmadz]

who would have even guessed that we may be floating in the mid-$450s price territory for so long.  

I know this one guy....

No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

I think that it is a different story if an investor was in a position to cash out part of his stash in December 2013.. or had been analyzing what to do during that period mid-to-late 2013 period.  So for example if anyone got into BTC in any kind of heavy way before mid-October 2013, the quick bubble may have likely caused a considerable incentive to cash out part of the appreciation - yet many may have just remained "in for the long term."

Surely the January, February and March performance seemed to draw considerations that BTC prices would remain at higher than $450s resting price points.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but a very large majority of those would have pegged a much higher resting point than our current mid$400s.

And, i suppose, I could be just inviting some bears to chime in to say, I told you so regarding this current mid$400s price range....

As I already stated, I doubt that we are going to be hanging around here for too long.. and probably a bit higher would be more in line with current fundamentals or at least the probability of going up seems greater than going down.. despite current low volume..

Also, even though we know that graphs can be constructed to show that $450-ish is a good stable price point, i think that BTC prices are a considerable bargain at the moment and I am sure that quite a bit.. little by little is being snatched up at these price points by the future elite (to coin a phrase from another bitcointalk thread)

I think that 450 is a nice price point and I have bought there on the last 2 dips; this one, I am sitting out.

the point I'd really like to address is the part I bolded: I don't think there are many savvy traders that have remained "in for the long term" when we've lost 50% in what? 2-3 months?

I get the feeling that the next bump will be big, and I think many of those that sold at $1000+ were people that bought much lower, and they remember the ride, and would like to do it again.

just don't forget to take profits when the price goes in your favour.

:edit: "taking profit" is a term I used for NFL betting, that's where I learned to trade. and when you're up, you better take some profits off the table, or you will lose it all. (you can consider "profit" as either extra fiat for hookers and blow, or skimming extra bitcoin and saving it for a rainy day

I agree with you completely about the need to skim profits in accordance with whatever scheme is comfortable for the investor.  My skimming will probably be in the form of reallocation of my total investment portfolio.. especially if there are gains in one area, as compared with another)..  So for example, if I had been into BTC in early 2013, then ended up realizing an unexpected 10 times gain, that may have likely triggered me to reallocate the gains into other areas.. .or maybe engaging in some consumption, as you mentioned.

My perspective remains somewhat skewed by the fact that I began investing in BTC in late November 2013.  Accordingly, my BTC portfolio remains in the red, even though I have been buying BTC as the price goes down in order to bring down my average price per BTC - which currently is around $640 - though I started at $1,200. 

When I got into BTC, I realized that there had been a recent and stupendous bull run, so that caused me to plan out my investment over the next several months... rather than sinking in a lump-sum at that particular moment.    Surely, in retrospect, there are probably ways that I could have played trades (or made my buys) in ways that would have caused even a lower average price per BTC.

At the time that I first got into BTC, I was also thinking that my BTC investment would likely run for at least 2 years, absent some catastrophic occurrence that may undermine the fundamentals of BTC with part of my motivation to diversify away from the dollar, since the remainder of my investments (which is a much larger proportion) are tied into the performance of the dollar.  I am sure that many of us in the bitcoin sphere realize the amazingly high level of printing press matters going on with the dollar and also some of the threats of US government shut downs, and those seemingly irresponsible governmental behaviors have caused me considerable concerns about having so much of my total investment dependent upon the ongoing value of the dollar - especially when I am also planning overseas travel.

So,yes, I do NOT have any major problem with floating around in the $450 range for a while - even though it would be a bit more comfortable floating in the black rather than in the red... but I have already banked on the possibility that my total BTC investment could go belly up.. so the worse case scenario would be if it kept going down and sucking out my money.... which I really doubt will occur based on the totality of what is going on with bitcoin and there continue to be lots of interesting value adding developments in the bitcoin sphere.

Unfortunately, I do NOT have any advice for you, JJG. hehehe!! no? not funny? oh well

this is why I don't do sales.

I can't lie very well, I can't tell you the future, I can't tell you that as long as you hold on to those $1,200 coins for at least a year, then you'll be just fine.

I actually shouldn't even be speaking right now, but I feel a compulsive urge to be involved in this thing somehow, and perhaps this is just my way of acting out, thowing a tantrum and all that.


I've always had the feeling that I would be involved in something great. maybe it's just a dream, a dream that everyone shares?
as far as price action? that is for traders, if you want to be a trader, then you can.

personally I think we are approaching some interesting times and I'm not very excited about some of the possible outcomes.

[billyjoeallen]

Y'all chase this rally if you want. Bitcoin's been good to me and I'm not going to be greedy. I'll stay with my low buy orders to provide a safety net in case this some kind of trap.

Bitcoin ate my greed.