Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

Here is my picture from  7th April:)


deja vu:)

So, we can say now the bot appears on 4H MACD downcross.

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[seleme]

I´ll promise i´ll short Bitcoin even more as i´m planning to spend my next holiday at the coast between Recife and Fortaleza(praia de pipa, canoa quebrada, here i come ).
 

You are most welcome, as long as you sell the bitcoins elsewhere and spend your real money here.  

Promised, i will use my shorting USD profits to buy BRL this week and spend it on my holidays. It looks overall bullish! Might go to the moon soon! Win Win - for me and Brazil  

That's actually the rounded top, one of the most bearish patterns

[dreamspark]

[...]

A kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, yes. However, there was a 1w EMA downcross at the end of october 2013. How did that work out?

(a) Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall TERA specifying exactly which weekly EMAs crossed over, so it's hard to tell if you found a bad signal or not.

(b) That said, even if you did, keep in mind, we're not playing 'mathematical proof' here, where one counter example is enough. We're playing 'is my stochastic system better than a monkey throwing darts'. And if a signal is, say, right 3 out of 4 times, and assuming you have some form of risk control in place (basically something that allows you to let profitable positions run, while cutting short unprofitable ones), then there's a chance you have a system that beats the dart throwing monkeys*.


* Details very much matter of course, so the above is nothing but the most high level description of why history based trading works even if individual signals go wrong.

Yes, you're right. I didn't want to question the use of TA in general, it indeed works in so far as that it gives you an advantage over noobs/sheep. Even if only works 51% of the time instead of exactly 50%, that is a win over random walk.
What I was questioning was the absolute certainty with which some people here seem to "know" what will happen based on some simple technicals.
The probability that something totally unexpected will happen is still brutally high!

I completely agree, if phrased like that.

* * *

In any case, here's a ultra-condensed version why some of us are so bearish/worried (or maybe secretly happy?) about a continued decline.

First, there's nothing special about weekly, imo. I'll make the following case based on 3d, because I get slightly more signals like that. My choice of EMAs  is 'hand picked' to fit the history of the market in a certain way to make a case, I'm not going to pretend otherwise. I picked 3d EMA40 and EMA20 for this illustration. We have to go back to mtgox data to get a single, clear bearish crossover with those EMA parameters:



That bearish crossover happened approximately half-way (wrt time) through the 2011 bear market. Any further price swings didn't make the EMAs cross over again. (obviously, ignore everything right of the big red vertical line: that's the last chaotic period of mtgox trading, and can be ignored)

Now apply the same parameters to Bitstamp. Note that during the period where the data overlaps, the EMAs behaves similar, i.e. at the end of the last correction (mid 2013), the two EMAs got close, but never crossed over. Not surprising, since price was (almost) always highly correlated between the two exchanges.

Now, in the last week, there's finally another bearish crossover of the two EMAs.




The above is, in a nutshell, one of several reasons why some here are expecting a further decline in price.

Please note: Here's what I'm NOT saying: that it is /certain/ that we will go down further. Or that the number of signals I observed above give my method much statistical power. Or that momentum based trading is the alpha and omega of trading profitably.

Here is what I do conclude however: based on several technical signals (including, but not limited to the EMA/momentum one I showed above), there's the nagging suspicion that we are in a situation that is more like 2011, and less like 2012 or 2013.

Final note: if you would have traded based on the parameters above, i.e. sold at bearish CO in 2011, bought back again at bullish one, you would have made at most a minimal profit. So another claim I do *not* want to make is that you should sell now, and buy back when we CO again.

Thanks for this, the best and most educational post we've had here for a fair few pages.

[soullyG]

I´ll promise i´ll short Bitcoin even more as i´m planning to spend my next holiday at the coast between Recife and Fortaleza(praia de pipa, canoa quebrada, here i come ).
 

You are most welcome, as long as you sell the bitcoins elsewhere and spend your real money here.  

FTFY
actualmoney

Just read today we don't know who invented it.

Real money is what you need to retire.

Haha, great subreddit - thanks for that

[chromosoma]

Yes, maybe that is the purpose of this bot, to measure market response e.g. how much the programmed curve differs from the reality=> how strong is the market.

It is like  a therapist moving  your hand, to see how your muscles react

[fonzie]

That's actually the rounded top, one of the most bearish patterns

FTFY 

[Adrian-x]

we know its you (and possibly another 7 billion skeptics)

Not really.

The skeptics and their governments may ban bitcoin from commerce and finance, but that is not what I meant.  The skeptics may define the environment, but it is the miners who will ultimately decide how bitcoin will evolve.  Not Satoshi, not the Shrem Karpeles & Friends Foundation, not the speculators, not the hoarders.

[fud]
So, what will Greed whisper to the miners' ears?
[/fud]

The users play a bigger role than you give credit, miner's will mine the coin with the most value and the value comes from liquidity and market depth created by the users. If miners who hold little influence on developers hijack Bitcoin it will fork for the greater benifit of it's users.

[fonzie]

If someone ever wondered why that volume on Huobi is that high, just watch BTC-E.  1m chart
I suspect that ~ 70-80% of that volume is from that one bot buyin and sellin to himself.

[JorgeStolfi]

[fud]
So, what will Greed whisper to the miners' ears?
[/fud]

The users play a bigger role than you give credit, miner's will mine the coin with the most value and the value comes from liquidity and market depth created by the users. If miners who hold little influence on developers hijack Bitcoin it will fork for the greater benifit of it's users.

Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves.  Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KFR]

[fud]
So, what will Greed whisper to the miners' ears?
[/fud]

The users play a bigger role than you give credit, miner's will mine the coin with the most value and the value comes from liquidity and market depth created by the users. If miners who hold little influence on developers hijack Bitcoin it will fork for the greater benifit of it's users.

Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves.  Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

Any miners that don't like it can mine blocks for a different chain.  Nobody will follow them - I thought we covered this yesterday.

[aminorex]

Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves.  Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

Yes, it is.  Without it, their BTC would become worthless.

I'm quite sure that BTC will be destroyed by miners one day, not because it is in their interest, but because people do things which are against their own interests.  But that will not happen before we can switch to a more distributed protocol with higher immunity.

[billyjoeallen]

Looking at the volume, it appears to be one of the tremors before the big quake. The recovery to $445 is on no volume at all. I pulled one of my re-buy orders until I find out what the hell is going on. How can there be that many limit buy orders with no market-order buying?

There appears to be much expectation for a major liquidity event in the downward direction. There is a minute chance that this is a head-fake by whales, but I seriously doubt it.
If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, then you are the sucker. I'm folding my hand to conserve chips.

[Adrian-x]

i told my landlord about bitcoin as an investment because i believed it was a good investment. she invested 12.5 k € in may 2013 and sold above 1000 beginning of december, profiting € 100 k .  boy, i feel so guilty.

Good for her... but what about the guy who bought from her at above 1000 in December?  He too was told it was a good investment, but lost more than 55,000 € at this point...

Jorge a good example of greed being consumed. If the guy bought Bitcoin because he believed it has value why would he sell at a loss. If he himself was fearful and greed motivated him to buy with little understand of Bitcoin, he is a not functioning effectively (part of the problem we have in society today) in effect Bitcoin took greed and created more abundance. i.e. his greed was destroyed and he made more Bitcoin available at his expense, but if he was able to control his greed and save an understanding in why Bitcoin has value helps, he will convert his greed into scarcely - delayed gratification, a discipline lacking today.

Of those who thought 1000 Bitcoin for $5 in 2010 had value, I see parallels like 600whatt's landlord and I'm satisfied 97.3% have sold almost all realizing under 900% profit on capital risked.

[oldm8]

If someone ever wondered why that volume on Huobi is that high, just watch BTC-E.  1m chart
I suspect that ~ 70-80% of that volume is from that one bot buyin and sellin to himself.


Well I did wonder how bitstamp managed to return 6000 btc volume when the exchange was shut for most of yesterday. Bots and a few traders already logged in. Your suspicion is probably right.

[igorr]

Bitcoin can not jump without MtGox.

[JorgeStolfi]

Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

Any miners that don't like it can mine blocks for a different chain.  Nobody will follow them - I thought we covered this yesterday.

No, you assumed that some "bad" miners would try do that in order to destroy bitcoin or whatever, and claimed that the "good" miners would not let them do that.  I am asking about your "good" miners.  is the 21 M BTC limit good for them?

[adamstgBit]

Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

Any miners that don't like it can mine blocks for a different chain.  Nobody will follow them - I thought we covered this yesterday.

No, you assumed that some "bad" miners would try do that in order to destroy bitcoin or whatever, and claimed that the "good" miners would not let them do that.  I am asking about your "good" miners.  is the 21 M BTC limit good for them?

keeping the core rules intact is good for them.

[Adrian-x]

[fud]
So, what will Greed whisper to the miners' ears?
[/fud]

The users play a bigger role than you give credit, miner's will mine the coin with the most value and the value comes from liquidity and market depth created by the users. If miners who hold little influence on developers hijack Bitcoin it will fork for the greater benifit of it's users.

Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves.  Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

I'm betting they will do what is best for themselves I'm depending on it, there are a lot of sheep miners. I'm one, I support one of the biggest pools but I'll drop them in a second if it threatened my savings.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?

Any miners that don't like it can mine blocks for a different chain.  Nobody will follow them - I thought we covered this yesterday.

No, you assumed that some "bad" miners would try do that in order to destroy bitcoin or whatever, and claimed that the "good" miners would not let them do that.  I am asking about your "good" miners.  is the 21 M BTC limit good for them?

My guess is they want to mine something with value ...