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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
Feb. 22 - 19 (15.6%)
Feb. 23 - 13 (10.7%)
Feb. 24 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 25 - 8 (6.6%)
Feb. 26 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 27 - 3 (2.5%)
Feb. 28 - 4 (3.3%)
March - 28 (23%)
After March - 14 (11.5%)
Never - 8 (6.6%)
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25191091 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
sonofliberty
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April 09, 2014, 09:40:28 PM

its over folks

bitcoin is dead.

 Cry

 Grin
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April 09, 2014, 09:40:36 PM

and I thought China would be the doom of BTC  Tongue
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April 09, 2014, 09:41:55 PM

Relax guys, price will obviously go higher. Look at bitstamp:

- they are buy orders in value of 14.000 BTC in total from 440 down to 398 USD
- on the other hand they are sell orders in value of 4.698 BTC in total up to 484 USD (from 440 USD).

So basically, while people would buy 14.000 BTC by the time BTC would go down to 400, there is ONLY 4.698 BTC on the selling side up to 484 USD.

I think this says all: people are not willing to sell their bitcoins at this price, which is the correct attitude. Excepting some idiots who are selling (I think everybody's an idiot selling now), people are just holding. Imagine, 4.698 BTC for sale from the almost 13.000.000 on the market... that says a lot about it (and also about how stupid people selling at this price are).

1. Those bid walls are mostly fake. They get pulled when the price moves towards them.
2. Those bid walls are mostly fake. As soon as you see a fast enough upswing move, you'll see bid walls disappear and ask walls being placed against the move.

Why is that?
A. (Bots) To catch crazy market orders. E.g. if someone sells 14k coins the market will bounce quickly and the bots make profit from catching the market order and selling back higher.
B. (Manipulators) To manipulate the simpletons into believing that support/resistance are stronger than they actually are. So the price moves in the opposite direction of the wall and the manipulator can lower the slippage of his real move, e.g. he can sell at a higher price than his bid wall or buy at a lower price than his ask wall.

Am I right?
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April 09, 2014, 09:48:04 PM

its over folks

bitcoin is dead.

 Cry
lol yep eiskalt killed BTC  Grin

The bloodmoon will kill it. Bon Scott saw it and told everybody.

Shortly after this the CIA killed him.

Finally it all makes sense. Cheesy
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April 09, 2014, 09:53:15 PM

its over folks

bitcoin is dead.

 Cry


Panic sold all my coins when i saw this.







 Cheesy
JorgeStolfi
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April 09, 2014, 10:00:00 PM

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 10

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.




Plot legend

This last Slumber data point was good (S = 0.0014, W = 0.963).  It was about 70 CNY below the preceding trend line, but, since the previous point was rather weak (W = 0.545), it still seems valid to use a straight line fitted by least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2791.80, B = -24.92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last three Slumber Times).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

A rather embarassing miss:

Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2734 CNY
Error: 74 CNY (~12 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 444 USD
Error: 12 USD
 
NOTE: "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts -- for support rather than illumination." --Andrew Lang
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April 09, 2014, 10:00:29 PM


Explanation
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April 09, 2014, 10:01:33 PM

I could imagine that the next weeks may sound something like this:

http://www.musictory.com/music/Death+In+June/Kapitulation
eiskalt
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April 09, 2014, 10:06:48 PM

I could imagine that the next weeks may sound something like this:

http://www.musictory.com/music/Death+In+June/Kapitulation

And all disappears
Yet nobody hears


 Cheesy
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April 09, 2014, 10:07:26 PM

I could imagine that the next weeks may sound something like this:

http://www.musictory.com/music/Death+In+June/Kapitulation

Bears giving up?
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April 09, 2014, 10:07:30 PM

CMOOOOON U BITCH MOVE UP!

IM LOSING IT Grin Grin

jk just bored
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April 09, 2014, 10:09:19 PM

I could imagine that the next weeks may sound something like this:

http://www.musictory.com/music/Death+In+June/Kapitulation

Bears giving up?

Nope, if we can make a run at 490s I'm gonna short like all hell Wink
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April 09, 2014, 10:10:06 PM

There are many ways to manipulate a market, but the ultimate enemy of a manipulator is time. If you have the patience, price will always return to it's real value. If it doesn't return ,then by definition it's not manipulation.

What really worries me is the talk of the bulls on this thread. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs.  The sunken cost fallacy is a real observed market phenomenon.
Most of you have not had to hold an underwater bitcoin position for years. I have. It was not a smart thing to do. It was an act of faith. How strong is your bitcoin faith? The market will test you.

Bitcoin isn't dead. Not even close, but if you don't think it's even possible to get much much worse before it gets better, then I can assure you it can. With all the talk about Gox and China, what worries me is if some other completely unrelated disaster happens before we've recovered. Bad guys don't play fair. They will kick you when you're down. They are out there. I'm intentionally being discouraging right now. It's better to get out now if you're going to get out than to hold on until you can't hold on any longer.  Bitcoin doesn't need you to go broke for the cause. Honey Badger don't care.
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April 09, 2014, 10:11:43 PM

its over folks

bitcoin is dead.

 Cry

Thank god finally! So what now phoenix stile rez?
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April 09, 2014, 10:13:10 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

FWIW, I think bitcoin is really under-priced right now, but I also know that Keynes was right when he said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I need to position myself to take advantage of that irrationality should it continue rather than be at it's mercy.




Honestly... if you have to "tell people"... then you might be the only one with that thought. (true or not)

Buy what you can. If others believe it, they will buy too. If they don't buy... then you might be wrong...

Though, in additional honesty... All coins are under-valued. The act of telling people is as useless as yelling at the TV to make your football team play better.

The problem isn't that people don't want to buy a valuable coin. The problem is simply that people want quick returns, with high value. Value is mostly determined by loss, with all coins. Fastest way to add value is to take it from others. (Theft, loss, taxes and mining operating-expense is where these coins get the primary value.)

Without loss, a dollar is always equal to a dollar. Nothing more, nothing less. (Only a dollar is never actually worth a dollar, ever, thus it is in perpetual loss. Creating the illusion of increased value. Reality is, you get less and less each passing. Just like a coin...)
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April 09, 2014, 10:17:10 PM

There are many ways to manipulate a market, but the ultimate enemy of a manipulator is time. If you have the patience, price will always return to it's real value. If it doesn't return ,then by definition it's not manipulation.

What really worries me is the talk of the bulls on this thread. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs.  The sunken cost fallacy is a real observed market phenomenon.
Most of you have not had to hold an underwater bitcoin position for years. I have. It was not a smart thing to do. It was an act of faith. How strong is your bitcoin faith? The market will test you.

Bitcoin isn't dead. Not even close, but if you don't think it's even possible to get much much worse before it gets better, then I can assure you it can. With all the talk about Gox and China, what worries me is if some other completely unrelated disaster happens before we've recovered. Bad guys don't play fair. They will kick you when you're down. They are out there. I'm intentionally being discouraging right now. It's better to get out now if you're going to get out than to hold on until you can't hold on any longer.  Bitcoin doesn't need you to go broke for the cause. Honey Badger don't care.

NOT causing me to sell. 

I will wait it out and keep buying BTC as the prices go down to $200 or even lower...  but I tend to doubt the likelihood of that $200 scenario - even though I agree with you that such a scenario is possible.
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April 09, 2014, 10:22:40 PM

There are many ways to manipulate a market, but the ultimate enemy of a manipulator is time. If you have the patience, price will always return to it's real value. If it doesn't return ,then by definition it's not manipulation.

What really worries me is the talk of the bulls on this thread. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs.  The sunken cost fallacy is a real observed market phenomenon.
Most of you have not had to hold an underwater bitcoin position for years. I have. It was not a smart thing to do. It was an act of faith. How strong is your bitcoin faith? The market will test you.

Bitcoin isn't dead. Not even close, but if you don't think it's even possible to get much much worse before it gets better, then I can assure you it can. With all the talk about Gox and China, what worries me is if some other completely unrelated disaster happens before we've recovered. Bad guys don't play fair. They will kick you when you're down. They are out there. I'm intentionally being discouraging right now. It's better to get out now if you're going to get out than to hold on until you can't hold on any longer.  Bitcoin doesn't need you to go broke for the cause. Honey Badger don't care.
If you acted like a responsible person you wouldnt invest more than you felt comfortable loosing in a ultra high risk venture. That said, all the drama with sunk cost and market testing FUD wouldnt be so hard on you, you could just sit back and take a sneak peak once a week/month.
Another thing too, I dont take any advice from users with begging addresses, and I suggest the same to others
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April 09, 2014, 10:24:36 PM

Not quite. Miners will do whatever gives more benefit to themselves.  Is the 21 million BTC cap good for them?
Yes, it is.  Without it, their BTC would become worthless.

I'm quite sure that BTC will be destroyed by miners one day, not because it is in their interest, but because people do things which are against their own interests.  But that will not happen before we can switch to a more distributed protocol with higher immunity.
What will this protocol look like? Less mining pools? Can't we just patch Bitcoin?
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April 09, 2014, 10:33:20 PM

Breaking news from the International Olympic Committee: Bitcoin has been clocked running the 440 in 5 days.
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April 09, 2014, 10:41:12 PM

Everybody relax BTC is fine and just going through the motions of growth.... we have seen a nice landing and leveling/cooling off period and I'm sure its getting ready to rebound Smiley don't ask me how I know cause I can't explain it...lol,,, sorry no charts here
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