Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 10Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ic.unicamp.br%2F%7Estolfi%2Ftemp%2F2014-04-09-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.png&t=665&c=GiKPxUpMuvtmHQ)
Plot legendThis last Slumber data point was good (S = 0.0014, W = 0.963). It was about 70 CNY below the preceding trend line, but, since the previous point was rather weak (W = 0.545), it still seems valid to use a straight line fitted by least squares to the last three points; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2791.80, B = -24.92.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.16 CNY/USD (it was 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last three Slumber Times).
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)
A rather embarassing miss:
Huobi's predicted price: 2808 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2734 CNY
Error: 74 CNY (~12 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 444 USD
Error: 12 USD
NOTE: "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts -- for support rather than illumination." --Andrew Lang