Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Gents, what can I say?

Sit back and enjoy this free ride

[virtualfaqs]

did we see bottom?

I'm going to say yes, because of this.
http://finance.china.com.cn/news/special/boao2014/20140411/2327233.shtml

What does this change? They never hinted they're going to ban bitcoin completely, actually they said same thing back in December.

But yeah, people are taking over a thinnest thing in Bitcoinland so it's possible this would be seen as something major.

But it was starting to appear that it was getting more and more restricted. Some investors were fearing a ban even though as others have pointed out they could just say ban if they wanted a ban. Other than another statement by the Bank of Agriculture there hasn't been another official statement. But this kind of message I feel means that might be the end of restrictions and give more clarity for what banks can and cannot do.

This statement goes against the $50K foreign currency restriction though so I dunno. I still think it's positive! 

[av123]

The timing of the new chiniese "news" is amazing, why it feels like sheeps are getting played into selling low and buying high every time?

I can't see how some people from Chinese government are not involved in Bitcoin, this just screams manipulation.

I think this is the case as well. Somebody is profiting big time IMO.

[fotosonics]

I am not happy as long as there is Chinese BS changing every day. I would be happiest if all Chinese exchanges were closed.

What if there was a coordinated effort to mess with China? What would it take? Every one agreeing when to buy and when to sell, at exactly the same time?

[andyatcrux]

I will eat my hat if China does not find a way to profit on bitcoin. Everyone is being manipulated. Bitcoin is a rare commodity, and we know the Chinese pay premiums for rare commodities. It should also be known that many Chinese people have money in other currencies outside the PBOC. As long as people keep fearing a bitcoin ban this rhetoric will be used as leverage. An all out ban would merely be an inconvenience, not a deterrent. And we are not even looking at a ban.

[podyx]

Tomorrow we'll be seeing a rally to $460

Just updating u guys

Bulls will be taking it from here, thanks for your cheap coins though

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

just got home from work..... nice!! what a rally!!

[podyx]

just got home from work..... nice!! what a rally!!

Uptrends automatically makes every day a good day

[virtualfaqs]

just got home from work..... nice!! what a rally!!

Uptrends automatically makes every day a good day

If you're not 100% fiat; yes.

[chessnut]

Unexpected events unfold the same during panic selling. I bought at 475 the last time unexpected news crashed the market. now I have the same signal. Five waves have unfolded and I am expecting a rally to cerca 2500. should consolidate for hours If I am correct.






EDIT. If this is correct, we are unlikely to pass 2100 today.

BUMP. I have picked out every minor bottom, and every potential major bottom since 465. long from 355.

[JorgeStolfi]

Perhaps people (including the Chinese) are reading too much into that PBoC official's statement.  The PBoC is only one of the agencies that authored the december decrees, and it may be that the bank closure order was requested by other agencies.

As of a month ago, the exchanges were sufficiently "fenced" to prevent undesirable flow of money.  Chinese nationals could deposit CNY into the exchanges, trade them for BTC, export the BTC, and sell them abroad. 

Yet, from the PBoC point of view, that was not "capital export".  The CNY merely changed hands among Chinese nationals. Neither the CNY nor any material good left the country, only "worthless" virtual money did.    The dollars that the Chinese traders got in the foreign exchanges did not come from China; they were taken from foreign traders, swapped for those worthless coins.  Since that operation did not harm China's  economy or their monetary policy, the PBoC had no reason to prevent it.  Ditto for the reverse operation.

However, the exchanges could still be used for things that other agencies would not like at all.  A person or entity X could pay some other Y in bitcoins, that Y would then convert into CNY by selling at the exchange.  The government would see that Y withdrew the cash, but could not easily tell whether it was the result of smart trading or of a bitcoin payment. (Note that, in any case, the CNY would come from other unwary Chinese traders at the exchange.)

This channel could be used for all sorts of illegal and undesirable activities - tax evasion, bribing, drug traffic, money laundering, paying subversives and spies, etc..

So, I think it is possible that it was the police and national security agencies that asked the PBoC to block the bank accounts. That may perhaps explain the lack of official statements by the PBoC, as well as the ban itself.

[podyx]

BUMP. I have picked out every minor bottom, and every potential major bottom since 465. long from 355.

very nice!

I also expect consodolation here this friday

Expecting a rally to 460-500 this weekend though

[ShroomsKit]

So we went down 100's because China might ban Bitcoin. Months of pure fear and panic. China was so important that a possible ban already brought the price down 50%. Nothing but panic and more panic.
Now we read there isn't gonna be a ban and everybody is like ok whatever...and nothing happens to the price. Like who cares right?
 

[Richy_T]

I'm getting a 404 at bitstamp. Anyone else?

Chartbuddy

[molecular]

After I make this post, I am going dark on anything bitcoin related. I am not in a panic, just a little annoyed about seeing the price go down constantly. Hopefully by the time I come back, we will be on our way to the moon. C ya later boys.

                                                                               

cool. all the people here for the wrong reasons please leave.

cya l8ter.

[JayJuanGee]

just got home from work..... nice!! what a rally!!

Uptrends automatically makes every day a good day

So the Australian limitations do NOT seem to play into keeping this down, necessarily.  That news is still a little vague too..... but at least seems more clear than any news that comes out of china.

[ampere9765]

After I make this post, I am going dark on anything bitcoin related. I am not in a panic, just a little annoyed about seeing the price go down constantly. Hopefully by the time I come back, we will be on our way to the moon. C ya later boys.

                                                                               

cool. all the people here for the wrong reasons please leave.

cya l8ter.

That's not really fair

BTC dropped 70% over several months -- that kind of loss in value can cause a world of hurt for people who just held

The sentiment is fair enough

[chessnut]

BUMP. I have picked out every minor bottom, and every potential major bottom since 465. long from 355.

very nice!

I also expect consodolation here this friday

Expecting a rally to 460-500 this weekend though

Nicely done Podyx. and it all lines up with some really promising news. might be good for a long term hodl.

[JorgeStolfi]

Second Market bought 5800 coins yesterday, holding 101500 now.

There is a thread monitoring that fund: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

It seems that the earliest investors, who joined in September, can now liquidate. The shares are nominally worth 0.1 BTC at the current BTC/USD price; so those investors paid ~13 USD/share and may liquidate now at ~45 USD/share, a nice profit.

On the other hand, investors who bought in late November paid up to 110 USD for shares that are now worth ~45 USD.  I suppose that they will be allowed to liquidate only in June; their gain or loss will be determined by the BTC price at that date.

From the table in that thread, I computed that the total money invested in the fund (minus the amount liquidated) must be now a few million USD more than the total nominal value of all extant shares (worth ~40 USD each as of yesterday).  If that computation is correct, the average gain among all investors, if they all liquidated today, would be a bit negative.  The averag loss of course will be larger if the BTC price falls further below 40 USD.