Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

a short-term view:  when china heats up, it will test 2700 this weekend, and short-term direction will depend on the outcome of that test.  2700 ~= 436usd. stamp will lag as much as $12 in the process, no more, unless china really rips upwards (unlikely). 

[TERA]

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

[MinermanNC]

Right now watching BTC is about as exciting as watching grass grow  

Actually, I find watching grass grow quite exciting.

Hmmm your grass seems to be growing quicker and much more "ro-bust" lol good fertilizer?

[MinermanNC]

a short-term view:  when china heats up, it will test 2700 this weekend, and short-term direction will depend on the outcome of that test.  2700 ~= 436usd. stamp will lag as much as $12 in the process, no more, unless china really rips upwards (unlikely). 

good to see something on topic 

[macsga]

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

SUCH TRAIN!!!!1

MUCH MOON...
COMING SOON!!!!1

There you go...!

[JayJuanGee]

420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!

I don't think we are in a hurry back to 340$.

I really hope we are. A retest of $340 on higher volume and I'm back in 100% crypto. A slow painful grind back to $340 and then I have to wait until we continue to grind down to $267.

Yest, that is a question that I am considering too.  However, I would think the opposite reaction would be most logical.  If price moves down quickly to $340, then you wait for $267 or whatever.  If price moves down slowly to $340, then you may consider that a true bottom is met, and you would get into all crypto at that point. 

So, I appreciate your framing of the possible outcomes, yet I question your characterization about what you would do under either scenario...  It is like you know better, but you are providing stupid ass and illogical information.. NOT hating on you, just a little irritated by your message b/c it seems to be giving weird-ass conclusions based on a hypothetical that could really happen.  Since, on more than one occasion, you have asserted NOT to be purposefully deceiving anyone, maybe you can clarify what you meant?

[JayJuanGee]

The 'slings and arrows of outrageous fortune' will decide everything for you once you do

But if you're new, maybe watch and learn a little.  And never go all in, or all out.  If you missed buying in last night you do have time to watch a little without missing out on an all time high.

Not much money will be hitting the exchanges this weekend, so (in my worthless opinion) it has as much - if not more - chance of testing 400 as it does of getting anywhere near 500.

Things are better than they were even in the past 24 hours - but it will be a wait for choo choo trains and rockets.   

That said - when it comes, it will have been worth the wait.

Isn't it true that it is already very unlikely that much more fiat will be getting into the exchanges... In other words, it is too late, for the most part, to get additional money into the exchanges.  So whatever fiat is in the exchanges is in there.... Also, there is No real way to know how much fiat is in the exchanges, and the order books can give some ideas, but really that kind of information is insufficient, if there were big whale money that is NOT on the order books.

[JayJuanGee]

WTF is happening, why are we plunging again?

This isn't a plunge. This is boring. What, you thought the market would just automatically go up forever from the exact moment you bought?

Why yes, yes we did 

Gonna look forward to taking your coins off of you. The best way to make money is to have money and patience. Day trading isn't luck. It's a job. You are the liquidity provider for the market. You provide dollar liquidity when it's needed and BTC liquidity when it's needed. The way you can tell if you are doing your job well is by selling at a profit. We make a lot of bets and most of them lose. The few that win pay off big.  Cutting your losses is an essential part of the job.

It will likely cost you a lot of money before you get the hang of it. It's kind of like being a poker pro except you actually provide something to society besides entertainment. I'm still learning. Bitcoin's historical volatility shows that we really need good traders. Good traders help reduce volatility. They eat it. Guys like you just function to pay off the good ones.

You don't have to believe in Bitcoin to be a good trader. In fact, it's often a liability. We tend to project our desires onto the market. You need to understand order flows.

Maybe I should just leave your comments be? 

However, you are so inflammatory in your presentation of matters.  You proclaim to be learning, but preaching as if you are an expert.  You are also in the habit of putting people down and turning matters into a competition... eg. you keep to suggest that you are going to take other people coins or they will get burned.. stupid and unnecessary confrontations.. and for what purpose, self entertainment?    Might be the guy with the smallest dick trying to posture?..

  Probably, there is NOTHING really to make you act more civil, unless it comes from within you.  which seems a long shot.. more of a long shot than bitcoin reaching $1000 by next week.

On the other hand, I have observed that every once in a while you contribute some value to the thread, when you get off of your high horse and provide basic facts or comments without the most apparently added fluff and spin.

[infofront]

Re-cap: It's not choo-choo time quite yet, but it is time to consider that the bottom may have already been reached, and positions need to be re-evaluated.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

So..
Huobi is the highest and BTC-E is the lowest. Any of you kids care to explain on why is this happening?

I would venture to guess that it is because the Chinese are the first to figure out that they will be able to continue trading, despite the inconvenience of not using the PBOC to fund the current exchanges they use. But it could certainly be a continuation of the manipulation we watched on the way down to 340.

Good guess, my friend
But what do you think about the chance that they can't withdraw their money because the source of that money isn't legal or the owners of that money aren't Chinese citizens? What do you think about the possibility that the boom in China was actually started by wastern players that at first stimulated demand? So, the only option would be to transfer that money to foreign exchanges and figure out a plan later.

[billyjoeallen]

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

LOL. We're not buying your $350 coins for $417. I'm pretty sure you dumped them already anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

This is a stupid question as everybody know - that best what you can do is to buy some more bitcoins every day

BUT I very like this image LOL x3

[aminorex]

i was asked why i post here.  i realized this while reading Epsilon Theory today: 

common knowledge is the fulcrum of sentiment.  i post in an effort to elevate and influence common knowledge in a way that reduces the gap between one local pareto optimum and the next, hopefully superior local optimum, and increasingly congenial to my personal taste.  not to manipulate the hive mind, as though i could -- i can not, but to contribute what is hopefully a positive increment, aptly timed.

that, and a perverse dopamine fix.  gotta cut that out.

[roslinpl]

Price looks like is not sure where to go up or down ... I see it is more likely to go up in next 12h I predict +33$

[KFR]

i was asked why i post here.

Some of us are very glad that you do.

[billyjoeallen]

420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!

I don't think we are in a hurry back to 340$.

I really hope we are. A retest of $340 on higher volume and I'm back in 100% crypto. A slow painful grind back to $340 and then I have to wait until we continue to grind down to $267.

Yest, that is a question that I am considering too.  However, I would think the opposite reaction would be most logical.  If price moves down quickly to $340, then you wait for $267 or whatever.  If price moves down slowly to $340, then you may consider that a true bottom is met, and you would get into all crypto at that point. 

So, I appreciate your framing of the possible outcomes, yet I question your characterization about what you would do under either scenario...  It is like you know better, but you are providing stupid ass and illogical information.. NOT hating on you, just a little irritated by your message b/c it seems to be giving weird-ass conclusions based on a hypothetical that could really happen.  Since, on more than one occasion, you have asserted NOT to be purposefully deceiving anyone, maybe you can clarify what you meant?

I closed my margin short@ $350 last night and made some money, but not nearly as much as I would have made had I bought. I'm sitting in 100% crypto and you can't do anything with fiat on an exchange except withdraw it or buy BTC. I WANT to buy BTC @ $350 so does every other well-funded trader who missed the opportunity to sell the bounce. The ones who did sell the bounce made a bundle and want to do it again. This has been a vicious four month bear market and the people who still have fiat have it because we don't part with it easily. The unknown question is how many of us want to buy relative to how many will want to sell when all the candles are red and it looks like $340 is just a pit stop on the road to Hell.

I don't want the price to go to $266 even though I'd get a lot more coins because I know also that it would push the next ATH back probably until next year. I'll deal with it if it happens, cuz y'know I would have to, but it wouldn't be much fun. Even the most successful traders do not control the market because they do not control demand. All they do is supply liquidity.  The differing ways to get there again will give evidence of how much demand there is.

The market could be in a lot worse shape than it is. I'm sure the whales who saw how fast liquidity can dry up last night are swimming a little less deep in the order book now.

I don't know how much demand there is for bitcoins, but I have an edge if I focus like a laser on certain signals. Good day traders don't do what is logical. They supply the liquidity to the people who are logical and to everybody else. If the market doesn't retest $340-$350, then I don't think I am in a position to provide much liquidity to the market. I'll prolly just cash out, pay some bills and wait out the next ATH to pull some coins from cold storage and do it again.

Stable prices are good if they are stable on high volume, but volume has dried up again, which means the only price discovery tool I have now is patience.
What happens on low volume means little. What happens on high volume says more.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday April 12

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2634 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 422 USD.





Plot legend

The data point of Apr/10 UTC, although fairly good according to the Slumber Volume criterion (S = 0.0038, W = 0.754), was way off the previous trend.  However, the next point, of Apr/11, although rather weak (S = 0.0066, W = 0.414), was very close to that line.  Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume a straight line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the points of Apr/07--Apr/09 and Apr/11.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2798.22, B = -32.75.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.24 CNY/USD. It was 6.32, 6.16, 6.16, 6.15 at the last four Slumber Times; the jump may have been due to momentary failure of arbitrage, or adjustment to the official rate (6.21).
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-09, 22:00 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Needless to say, the prediction was totally ruined by the Huobi bank closure notice:

Huobi's predicted price: 2717 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2448 CNY
Error: 269 CNY (~43 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 396 USD
Error: 45 USD
 
NOTE: "Like so many contemporary philosophers, he especially enjoyed giving
    helpful advice to people who were happier than he was." -- Tom Lehrer

[billyjoeallen]

Price looks like is not sure where to go up or down ... I see it is more likely to go up in next 12h I predict +33$

The sentiment on this thread is interesting. The people who bought into the rally today seem upset that the price didn't go up more when if they were capable of sustaining a rally they would be happy the price is going down so they could accumulate more coins.  I don't yet see any signs of new capital infusion.  Such low volume on a Friday night seems to indicate we're going to have a week end dip.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation