Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonzie]

It took 10 minutes for those stupid chinese to realize that all conditions for a small rallye were given. I hope they are out soon.

they're rallying just now.

LTC rallye is the only one that impresses me a little bit until now. I´m glad one can leverage on LTC too on Bitfinex  
Bitstamp was too scared to rallye alone without chinese support.

[TERA]

It shouldn't go much past 2800 before consolidating for a few days.

[fonzie]

I hope that a few of those 10k BTC swaps on Finex get triggered. That would give some additional fuel.

[aminorex]

Only problem I see is there is significantly less volume on stamp this time. Stamp did 64K of volume yesterday and with the mtgox bounce, it did 120K of volume. The candles now, however, actually look even more bullish than then, but the volume does not. I don't know what to make of it.

I think the previous plunges burned off a lot of the potential capitulation volume.  It was essentially a triple capitulation, once for the initial PBoC announcement, once for gox melodrama, and again for Chinese exchange psychodrama.  Each churned less coins than the previous.  In aggregate they were substantially greater volume than any previous capitulation, and in value terms, at least an order of magnitude greater.  How could there be any more loose fruit on the tree?  And in terms of buyer volume, once you have already played in one capitulation event, why play in a repeat at the same numbers?  At some point you've got to be at your carry limit.  Hands get stronger with each event.

[billyjoeallen]

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

LOL. We're not buying your $350 coins for $417. I'm pretty sure you dumped them already anyway.

It does not matter if the statement is bullish or bearish - I cannot point out objective statements about TA and charts without having my own position questioned. Why is that?

You're right. I apologize. A good prediction, too!   Thanks for the tip. Green Lumber Trader is on a roll!!!

[seleme]

Only problem I see is there is significantly less volume on stamp this time. Stamp did 64K of volume yesterday and with the mtgox bounce, it did 120K of volume. The candles now, however, actually look even more bullish than then, but the volume does not. I don't know what to make of it.

I think the previous plunges burned off a lot of the potential capitulation volume.  It was essentially a triple capitulation, once for the initial PBoC announcement, once for gox melodrama, and again for Chinese exchange psychodrama.  Each churned less coins than the previous.  In aggregate they were substantially greater volume than any previous capitulation, and in value terms, at least an order of magnitude greater.  How could there be any more loose fruit on the tree?  And in terms of buyer volume, once you have already played in one capitulation event, why play in a repeat at the same numbers?  At some point you've got to be at your carry limit.  Hands get stronger with each event.

We might not see many if any of crashes like yesterday any time soon (though that's brave to say with Chinese playing us as electrical toys) but question is if there is enough money on the market to keep the price up.

I'm not sure about that and I'd rather flash crash to 100$ with bounce than to see lack of buying power draining it down for months.

We are definitely staying without China new money now and as much as I can't wait for them to fuck off completely, we'll feel that. Even if their volume is mostly fake, and I guess lot of it is, it's still huge market, it has to be felt.

[TERA]

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

LOL. We're not buying your $350 coins for $417. I'm pretty sure you dumped them already anyway.

It does not matter if the statement is bullish or bearish - I cannot point out objective statements about TA and charts without having my own position questioned. Why is that?

You're right. I apologize. A good prediction, too!   Thanks for the tip. Green Lumber Trader is on a roll!!!

Almost everyone who trades bitcoin is in the same boat. Nobody knows how to calculate the value of a bitcoin. I never see any equations where the total amount of sales of bitcoin business and such is passed through to yield a value. We're all just speculating on wild guesses. It's a very trending market with trends that go on very long and the charts themselves create movements. Also there is always someone doing some kind of insider trading and you can see it happening with TA. The best thing you can do is just ignore the news, trade the charts, and use risk management strategies.

[JayJuanGee]

Currently, I think we are getting a pump.. here..

and the dump will come later.. maybe tomorrow? or at least less than 24 hours?

Order books and charts are showing a powerful momentum with thin retraces, early indicator reversals, and lots of bids filling in.

I think there should be a consolidation of a couple days before break to 520 (and then either dump or trend reversal). At least that's how it worked last month with mtgox. Only problem I see is there is significantly less volume on stamp this time. Stamp did 64K of volume yesterday and with the mtgox bounce, it did 120K of volume. The candles now, however, actually look even more bullish than then, but the volume does not. I don't know what to make of it.

I would make sense in this situation if the trend is being driven by Chinese re-entrants and so the volume there is more significant. However, in that case we have to trust that this the end of the China situation and that the Chinese volume wont get killed of by continued bank shutdowns. So far, ignoring the volume on stamp has always been a mistake.

I hear what you are saying.. ... but it seems that we are going to get another test of the down first... before going up - especially if there is overall low volume.. b/c in the end, the current news has NOT settled the China matter very clearly.  so that leaves for uncertainties in the air which will allow for pushing of this matter downward and the testing of the support around $400 or possibly lower... I cannot really see this going up before engaging in that downward test over the weekend... that is why I was suggesting that there is a pump that precedes the downward test.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

I hope this wannabe suckers rallye falls hard,  it was overall lame and witout any power, at least it gives an additional possibilty for another shorting start point, 437$ seems fair and hopefully safe.
There seems to be no more crazy driven fuel left among the traders.
Each bulltrap fails more in it´s impact.

[Adrian-x]

I don't know what to make of it.

Well, I don't think that there has ever been a situation like this in the stock market: all the largest exchanges being ordered to stop using banks to transfer client money in or out, within the week.  The theory for that case probably does not exist, and certainly has not been tested.

That's for sure. Come to think of it the big 5 private banks in Canada are doing the same thing as Chinese banks. Cavirtex are asking for government legislation so for  Canadian exchanges before they are forced to use other nations banks.

[UnDerDoG81]

I wouldn't care if it was final bottom or not if I traded this with my full power  

I missed this one definitely, made some 2k$, that's nothing what I could made.  

And it might be the bottom, I usually never miss the lows though I sell too early on bounce, yesterday I was too scared to go full in first time  

Lucky you

I never had luck with trading and speculating. As I bought @685 my only goal was to make a profit of 1000 bucks and then sell and buy low. That means the price only needed to go $15 up for a 1000k profit. But I bought @highest spot and now I made not 1000 profit but 25.000 loss (if I would sell)

[JayJuanGee]

I missed this one definitely, made some 2k$, that's nothing what I could made.  

Well, I light a candle for you

I had lot of fiat waiting, could have easily made 20k in last 24 hours if I wasn't a pussy.

But again, that's how it is now, I decided to protect these gains and I won't risk it easily until I am certain even if I had to buy at 600$. It's lot of money that gives me some security and free time to approach the future period. Plus if it explodes I'll pick my gains in my alts investments so it's not time to be too greedy.

NO asset class is exactly like bitcoin - except for other crytos... but bitcoin is the pointman regarding taking the various hits - potential banking concerns and potential government concerns....

I am sure parallels can still be drawn, but there still exist overall differences based on the fact that bitcoin is just a little different animal from the rest.

Maybe one could say like some kind of diversified drug cartel or something that is being invested into, but in those kinds of situations, they are missing the decentralized aspect, which is bitcoin.  And if we talk about tor being peer to peer and unable to take down, well there is NOT money investments, in the same way as bitcoin.. which distinguishes bitcoin from tor... even though tor principles are used in bitcoin.

[chessnut]

I hope this wannabe suckers rallye falls hard,  it was overall lame and witout any power, at least it gives an additional possibilty for another shorting start point, 437$ seems fair and hopefully safe.
There seems to be no more crazy driven fuel left among the traders.
Each bulltrap fails more in it´s impact.

hmmm.... Fonzie is back LOL   

[chessnut]

watching this carefully. would be very telling if we had a spike up or down right now. This trend line was strong just 2 days ago.



whereas bitstamp has coiled and broken through a larger channel. looking for follow through.

[fonzie]

I hope this wannabe suckers rallye falls hard,  it was overall lame and witout any power, at least it gives an additional possibilty for another shorting start point, 437$ seems fair and hopefully safe.
There seems to be no more crazy driven fuel left among the traders.
Each bulltrap fails more in it´s impact.

hmmm.... Fonzie is back LOL   

Bitcoin without huge bulltraps where everyone joins is is not what it´s used to be. I´m sad  

[JayJuanGee]

I wouldn't care if it was final bottom or not if I traded this with my full power  

I missed this one definitely, made some 2k$, that's nothing what I could made.  

And it might be the bottom, I usually never miss the lows though I sell too early on bounce, yesterday I was too scared to go full in first time  

Lucky you

I never had luck with trading and speculating. As I bought @685 my only goal was to make a profit of 1000 bucks and then sell and buy low. That means the price only needed to go $15 up for a 1000k profit. But I bought @highest spot and now I made not 1000 profit but 25.000 loss (if I would sell)

We are in a similar situation.. though I started buying at $1200 and saved some of my fiat to I have been buying little by little for nearly five months.. so currently, my average price per BTC is around $625, including fees.  I am NOT planning to sell any significant quantity until in the black.. so I continue to buy small amounts to keep bringing my average price per BTC down...   If I sold at the highest price that I could have gotten today, I would be around $10k down.  I am pretty confident that prices will get above my average BTC price within the next few months... but I am prepared for a couple of years, if that is in the cards.

[fonzie]

watching this carefully. would be very telling if we had a spike up or down right now. This trend line was strong just 2 days ago.

I put my money on this prediction, i hope you´re right. The chances for a spike upwards seemmed  small to. No huge buying power  no fake walls , nothing.
Unemotional at best. Therefore i bet on a downwards spike, that´s where people have some trading emotion left. Panic buying seems to be outmoded.
Panic selling is where the heart still is.

[uhoh]

watching this carefully. would be very telling if we had a spike up or down right now. This trend line was strong just 2 days ago.

I put my money on this prediction, i hope you´re right. The chances for a spike upwards seemmed  small to. No huge buying power  no fake walls , nothing.
Unemotional at best. Therefore i bet on a downwards spike, that´s where people have some trading emotion left. Panic buying seems to be outmoded.
Panic selling is where the heart still is.

To be fair, there was quite a lot of buying power to bring us back to $430. Monday will be interesting, that's for sure. Would be personally pretty surprised if this was a Bull trap, but certainly wouldn't bet on a reversal until $500+

[marcus_of_augustus]

I don't know what to make of it.

Well, I don't think that there has ever been a situation like this in the stock market: all the largest exchanges being ordered to stop using banks to transfer client money in or out, within the week.  The theory for that case probably does not exist, and certainly has not been tested.

That's for sure. Come to think of it the big 5 private banks in Canada are doing the same thing as Chinese banks. Cavirtex are asking for government legislation so Canadian exchanges before they are forced to use other nations banks.

Finally, someone has stumbled upon the glaringly obvious that the bears have been reaping the rewards for general ignorance ... the situation with Bitcoin and banks in China is no fucking different than that in the US and Canada!!!

.... slip that into you "freedom matrix" worldview, you're all pwned by your banks bitchez, you and the chinkies, everybody. Just keep trading and sipping that fiat Kool-Aid.