Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

What would this pattern be called, if it broke out: Head, shoulders, and hips?

how about the panty line indicator

LOL  

 

it actually looks just like a nested head and shoulders. how often would you encounter such a pattern in "normal" trading? like stock market stuff?

edit - yeah, just like inception, we're gonna see patterns inside of patterns inside of patterns...

scary part is, that if you look closely enough, it becomes true.

[TERA]

I think this is the plan:

[shmadz]

I think this is the plan:

I'm cheering for team red! Who's with me?

:seriously, feels like a much firmer bottom in the 300's, and who can resist a firm bottom?

::even more seriously, can you share a zoom-out so we can see the whole trendline? thanks.

[beaconpcguru]

Red is China, Green is rest of the world.

[TERA]

I'm cheering for team red! Who's with me?

:seriously, feels like a much firmer bottom in the 300's, and who can resist a firm bottom?

So far every bottom has seemed firm, until it was double penetrated. First 530 was very firm, then it was 400. Even 850 was firm in November during a correction before the Chinese acted.

[chessnut]

I like that chart. very balanced ^^

the last piece of ammo is Huobi shutting down. but I think the statement from the PBOC is a taste of what is to come.

[TERA]

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

[shmadz]

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

my emphasis

does anyone have that link to the second market observer? I thought I had it bookmarked, but I'm either mistaken, or just can't find it, or more likely just plain drunk.

:edit: here it is, thanks stolfi.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

That was a lot of coins they bought yesterday, could they be the one who is "sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds" ?

[chessnut]

yeah....Ive always treated the minor bottoms in this area with much caution from a bearish point of view, since it is historically reversal territory. This is probably the first one to blow a bunch of bears out of the water, which makes it exciting. It only takes an announcement from PBOC to make new lows, so yeah maybe it needs time before we can call it a bottom on a larger scale.

What excites me most, is that the level to break the monthly wedge is only 510 now. 'only', as in only $60 away, but the resistance of the wedge could be potentially be a lot. the test may come soon - 15th (!)

[JorgeStolfi]

does anyone have that link to the second market observer?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.400

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

does anyone have that link to the second market observer?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.400

Thanks prof.

[TERA]

yeah....Ive always treated the minor bottoms in this area with much caution from a bearish point of view, since it is historically reversal territory. This is probably the first one to blow a bunch of bears out of the water, which makes it exciting. It only takes an announcement from PBOC to make new lows, so yeah maybe it needs time before we can call it a bottom on a larger scale.

What excites me most, is that the level to break the monthly wedge is only 510 now. 'only', as in only $60 away, but the resistance of the wedge could be potentially be a lot. the test may come soon - 15th (!)

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.



Actually, I think the ichimoku cloud on TradingView is a much better visualiazation of resistance than a rigid line.

[shmadz]

yeah....Ive always treated the minor bottoms in this area with much caution from a bearish point of view, since it is historically reversal territory. This is probably the first one to blow a bunch of bears out of the water, which makes it exciting. It only takes an announcement from PBOC to make new lows, so yeah maybe it needs time before we can call it a bottom on a larger scale.

What excites me most, is that the level to break the monthly wedge is only 510 now. 'only', as in only $60 away, but the resistance of the wedge could be potentially be a lot. the test may come soon - 15th (!)

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.



Actually, I think the ichimoku cloud on TradingView is a much better visualiazation of resistance than a rigid line.

that purple zone pattern looks about right to me. needs a dinosaur to be really convincing though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

That's an important cautionary note. I was thinking this looked a lot like the Gox recovery.  We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

[TERA]

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

That's an important cautionary note. I was thinking this looked a lot like the Gox recovery.  We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

... except the volume (and maybe the price) on the exchanges is probably misleading for good reads of these indicators, due to off-exchange transfers between large players.

There has always been the ability to transfer off exchange. Why do people think it suddenly happening orders of magnitude greater now than before? If bringing up the issue of trust, keep in mind that the amounts of cash involved earlier were less also.

[BBmodBB]

looking better peeps! =)

[pdawg]

me thinks we get to 455+ on this next push up then it takes a breather...