Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[theonewhowaskazu]

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

That's an important cautionary note. I was thinking this looked a lot like the Gox recovery.  We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

... except the volume (and maybe the price) on the exchanges is probably misleading for good reads of these indicators, due to off-exchange transfers between large players.

There has always been the ability to transfer off exchange. Why do people think it suddenly happening orders of magnitude greater now than before? If bringing up the issue of trust, keep in mind that the amounts of cash involved earlier were less also.

Heartbleed? IDK, there was inability to log in for some period, and that's got to cock some things up.

[chessnut]

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.

I agree with all that, just my fundamental outlook tells me that this cannot say idle at the current rate of adoption (also at current rate of un-adoption). In worst case scenario, the issues in china should be resolved at most in a couple of months after the fifteenth, my opinion. assuming that the issues are resolved by the fifteenth (positive news or less negative news) a break above the wedge would have fundamental support. If not, a break above the wedge in a worse scenario would be even more meaningful, right? the coming days are the most critical I have ever anticipated, especially considering chinese law/announcement on the 15th, and the price action/reaction we have seen from positive news. It seems like support is at hand, besides being pretty fishy.
I've never guaranteed anything. Some people dont like how I put things. Im trying to change that.

[mah87]

https://btc2ripple.com/#/

[y3804]

Are we dropping? From 2750CNY to 2669CNY (time of posting). It's already 3PM saturday in China, they have about 15h waking hours left to withdraw their coins

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.

I agree with all that, just my fundamental outlook tells me that this cannot say idle at the current rate of adoption (also at current rate of un-adoption). In worst case scenario, the issues in china should be resolved at most in a couple of months after the fifteenth, my opinion. assuming that the issues are resolved by the fifteenth (positive news or less negative news) a break above the wedge would have fundamental support. If not, a break above the wedge in a worse scenario would be even more meaningful, right? the coming days are the most critical I have ever anticipated, especially considering chinese law/announcement on the 15th, and the price action/reaction we have seen from positive news. It seems like support is at hand, besides being pretty fishy.
I've never guaranteed anything. Some people dont like how I put things. Im trying to change that.

There's no law or announcement coming on the 15th. The banks were asked to close the accounts by the 15th as a deadline. Either they comply, or they don't.

[chessnut]

There's no law or announcement coming on the 15th. The banks were asked to close the accounts by the 15th as a deadline. Either they comply, or they don't.

Yeah, this is critical, what the banks do on this date is key to understanding what the law implies (evidently, it is a cloudy subject). I suggest announcement because that day is most subject to an announcement. For example, It may be that the last exchanges are wiped out on that day and cause super volatility. If there is no announcement then, there is unlikely to be one ever.

[TERA]

Maybe they do it late. The 20th rolls around and a bank account closes "Sorry it took us so long. We were very busy, system issues, etc."

[chessnut]

Maybe they do it late. The 20th rolls around and a bank account closes "Sorry it took us so long. We were very busy, system issues, etc."

Any major bank in china that breaks the law for five days consecutively with the whole world watching is taking a risk I would not understand, it defeats the purpose of a deadline entirely. If no enforcement comes on the 15th, then I would say that china has only set up a regulatory framework. The latest positive news is some evidence that they dont want to bring bitcoin down. If they really didn't want it, they would have dropped the ban bomb last year. they wouldn't take the risk of letting it grow before they ban it.

[BBmodBB]

Maybe they do it late. The 20th rolls around and a bank account closes "Sorry it took us so long. We were very busy, system issues, etc."

^FUDster ;-)

[pdawg]

china china china......  that's the problem.  when the bots stop caring about china, we will decouple and be on our way.

[TERA]

Do not underestimate China.

[mah87]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=558348.new#new PLEASE VOTE !!

THANK YOU! =D

[billyjoeallen]

This is interesting. Are we going to see a retest of $340??  I've got fiat waiting.

[gizmoh]

china china china......  that's the problem.  when the bots stop caring about china, we will decouple and be on our way.

There is arbitrage happening (i know some folks who do it through Bitfinex and huobi) , that's why price usually get back in line between exchanges. When there is a gap there is profit to scalp, so its normal!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hpotsirc]

Hey guys,

not quite sure here. Is this a head and shoulders pattern on the right?
https://i.imgur.com/8lFopVs.jpg

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Hey guys,

not quite sure here. Is this a head and shoulders pattern on the right?

Yep a small scale head and shoulders. I dont see any reason to trade it though.... too small. the market will change too fast. and no short term fundamental reason I am aware of.

[Hpotsirc]

Yep a small scale head and shoulders. I dont see any reason to trade it though.... too small. the market will change too fast. and no short term fundamental reason I am aware of.

Thank you for the confirmation. I wasn't sure because it didn't look as clear on Bitcoinwisdom.