Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biro Bob]

If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.

I've not been buying or selling since $600. Now I'm just sitting on the fence.

[fonzie]

choooo chooooo

[rudrigorc2]

Do not underestimate China.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6182667#msg6182667

agreed. great image.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Guinpen]

I feel it is very risky to short now. I bought in the 300s and feel if I short now best case scenario is I buy back at 390-400. Because dinosaur.

What's a dinosaur?

[boumalo]

When it is going down traders are saying it will go down more and when it goes up they say it will go up some more; extreme bulls say it will spike up to new highs very soon and extreme bears say the price can only down and everything is doomed : that only helps knowing the sentiment and the trend

[niothor]

I feel it is very risky to short now. I bought in the 300s and feel if I short now best case scenario is I buy back at 390-400. Because dinosaur.

What's a dinosaur?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur   

[knarzo]

I feel it is very risky to short now. I bought in the 300s and feel if I short now best case scenario is I buy back at 390-400. Because dinosaur.

What's a dinosaur?

Clownsians

[JorgeStolfi]

What's a dinosaur?

It has been determined by the most critical users in this thread that a Technical Analysis chart is not convincing if the lines do not trace the outline of a dinosaur.

The pioneering work that led to that conclusion was posted here a couple of months ago IIRC, perhaps by user @magicmexican.  Others have tried to follow that lead, but with not as much success.

EDIT: Oops, the inventor of Dinosaur Analysis was @spooderman it seems.

RE-EDIT: Ooops again, it was @magicmexican indeed!

[spooderman]

Noobs be high as fuck reading the whole wikipedia entry on dinosaurs wondering how it relates to trading patterns.

[dreamspark]

Morning, most peaceful  nights sleep in a week or so. Heads a bit sore though 

As I expected and Tera also alluded to as well the volume drop off coupled with the fact that nothings really changed until we see what really happens when deposits stop and the fact its a weekend  leads me to be fairly confident of my short term short from $43X  with a target just above $400 ish. Its just a hedge against my main stash and I'd much rather see us going on a mad bull run and breaking all the technicals 

Even better would be some nice consolidation in this area only a small drop maybe due to the fact something is guaranteed to happen with China in the next few days before the real lift off.

[spooderman]

Very obvious dinosaur pattern on the graph, looks bearish as hell.

Looks like the pattern i spotted was spot on. Do i win any bitcoins for predicting the future?

only if you sold at that point  

True, true...

Unfortunately my Mspaint skill is way better than my trading skill. I only manage to make profits from buying and waiting :d

aww the picture is gone

[dreamspark]

Noobs be high as fuck reading the whole wikipedia entry on dinosaurs wondering how it relates to trading patterns.

Just wait till one quotes it 

[spooderman]

A brief history of dinosaur patterns:




that was a PAIN to do. funny to go back though and read posts from people saying "well I think we definately can't go below 700" etc.

[niothor]

Noobs be high as fuck reading the whole wikipedia entry on dinosaurs wondering how it relates to trading patterns.

I should have put a redirect there through a counter... I bet a few people clicked that link

[mah87]

Don't forget to vote !!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=558348.msg6082785#msg6082785

THANK YOU!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

https://bitcoinaverage.com/#CNY

ignored exchange   reason
bitxf   unreachable since 09 Apr, 10:47 UTC
btctrade   volume data suspect
coinbase   volume data not published
fxbtc   unreachable since 11 Apr, 11:22 UTC
huobi   volume data suspect
okcoin   volume data suspect


http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/CNY.html

The reasons why people consider their volume suspect are

(1) After the December decree, BTC-China chose to use some sort of voucher system for deposits and withdrawals, whereas Huobi and (later) OKCoin managed to work with bank transfers. As a result, BTC-China's volume fell to nearly zero,  while the volume at Huobi and OKCoin kept growing to about the level that BTC-China used to have before the decree;

(2) Bobby Lee, the CEO of BTC-China, is a Westernized Chinese and an old member of the bitcoiner gang; whereas the CEOs of Huobi and OKCoin are unknown Mainland Chinese guys, who don't even speak decent English and show absolutely no respect for the Great Leaders of the Western Bitcoin World.  

(3) Western bitcoin startups would hardly find investors and customers if they admitted that, since last October, the price of BTC has been entirely determined by a bunch of short-term speculators in Mainland China who, by and large, do not understand the technical aspects and do not care for its long-term potential for internet commerce etc.

An alternative to the claim "their volume is mostly fake" is "most of their traders are Westerners". Westerners who, for some mysterious reason, do not trade between 3:00 am and 6:00 am China time, trade much less during the Chinese holidays, and react only to Chinese media news.

[niothor]

https://bitcoinaverage.com/#CNY

ignored exchange   reason
bitxf   unreachable since 09 Apr, 10:47 UTC
btctrade   volume data suspect
coinbase   volume data not published
fxbtc   unreachable since 11 Apr, 11:22 UTC
huobi   volume data suspect
okcoin   volume data suspect


http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/CNY.html

The reasons why people consider their volume suspect are

(1) After the December decree, BTC-China chose to use some sort of voucher system for deposits and withdrawals, whereas Huobi and (later) OKCoin managed to work with bank transfers. As a result, BTC-China's volume fell to nearly zero,  while the volume at Huobi and OKCoin kept growing to about the level that BTC-China used to have before the decree;

(2) Bobby Lee, the CEO of BTC-China, is a Westernized Chinese and an old member of the bitcoiner gang; whereas the CEOs of Huobi and OKCoin are unknown Mainland Chinese guys, who don't even speak decent English and show absolutely no respect for the Great Leaders of the Western Bitcoin World.  

(3) Western bitcoin startups would hardly find investors and customers if they admitted that, since last October, the price of BTC has been entirely determined by a bunch of short-term speculators in Mainland China who, by and large, do not understand the technical aspects and do not care for its long-term potential for internet commerce etc.

An alternative to the claim "their volume is mostly fake" is "most of their traders are Westerners". Westerners who, for some mysterious reason, do not trade between 3:00 am and 6:00 am China time, trade much less during the Chinese holidays, and react only to Chinese media news.

And lack of depth charts

I had my doubts about btcchina with their trade volume and this only adds more

http://mm.btc123.com/btcchina.php , zoom to 100%

What's wrong with it?

Do you see the amounts?  with a total of 4000 bitcoins for sale and bids for 10 000 (and this includes the ask and bids at 4x or 0.25 the value) , how can it even dream of a volume of 15k/day?

[TERA]

A brief history of dinosaur patterns:




that was a PAIN to do. funny to go back though and read posts from people saying "well I think we definately can't go below 700" etc.

I remember statements about "the cycles are getting faster now. This will only be a very brief consolidation for a couple months before ATH and not a full bear market" and of course "wall street is going to take it from here".