Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.

That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.

You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.

[Adrian-x]

I am guessing that chinese exchangers hold between 1/10 and 1/5 of the coins that are on bitstamp and btc-e.
There is no way they could have acquired the amount they claim out of the blue.
Time will tell , but I doubt the numbers are that wrong.

You may not know it, but bitcoins can be easily moved between markets, even across currency exchange barriers.    

Arbitragers move coins to China whenever the price there is higher than in the West.  The price shoot by a factor of 10 in October/November when the Chinese market exploded, all because of demand in China  They must have slurped most of the coins available in the Western markets at the time.  

So I would guess the opposite: last January, the coins available in the Western exchanges (not counting the large hoards of long-term investors, nor the fictitious GOXCoins) were only 1/5 to 1/10 of those that were available in the Chinese exchanges.  (That is just a guess, based on nothing more than this simplistic price argument.) But that number must have been decreasing together with the price.

EDIT: fixed(?) wrong attribution of quote.

I live in Vancouver it is full of Chinese, there is lots of new Chinese wealth here, they keep our real estate market out of wack with the world.

I have been told by guys in the moving coins off market industry that before the last bubble that liquidity dried up and lots of new Chinese were buying for the first time and sending coins to china to for friends to sell.

I import a lot from China and experimented with paying suppliers by selling on exchange over there, my fiat to fiat conversion via Bitcoin gave me a 10-15% conversion advantage.

Unfortunately short lived fiat out became problematic, even getting my Bitcoin back was a change. As payment reconciliation with BTCchina was a mess.

[pjviitas]

I don't know if anyone has noticed but the long term charts do not look good...even in log scale.

All this volatility all the way down since Nov-Dec may be great for day traders that know how to spin this however most of us mortals don't have those kinds of skills.

I am going to sit tight on my fiat until the long term charts show a clear uptick.

Just my 2 cents.

[knightcoin]

my personal drama soup on my beloved mined coins was related to gov wellfare, taxes, etc ...  

[rpietila]

I don't know if anyone has noticed but the long term charts do not look good...even in log scale.

Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Mine is that long-term charts have never looked this good if you are looking for a low-risk entry point. November-2011 comes close.

[seleme]

If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.

That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.

You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.

TERA is trader, and when trader says to not trade that means stay in fiat in bearish markets, btc in bullish markets.

[ChrisML]

Fucking bears.

It went down to $336,-

Still they be: UGH, I WANT IT TO GO LOWER. I GOT SO MUCH MONEY TO SPEND ON BITCOINS, LIKE OMG. Shut the fuck up already. It's been at $336,-. You missed it. Bad luck. Get your BEAR balls together(if you even have some balls) and get the fuck in.

Honestly, all this bullshit talk about wanting to have cheap coins. All a sudden it's at $336 and they still DONT fucking buy coins. Your fake, seriously.. fake.

[jonoiv]

Looks like head&shoulders failing to materialize @huobi, buy buy buy

Huobi no longer the catalyst causing the dumps.  The last dump was started on btc-e.   only the recovery was initiated on huobi.  

[fonzie]

Chinese/Russian coordinated megapump in progress. 120$ candles available soon!

[fonzie]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

[m3g4tr0n]

Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought

I'm sorry but this got looped in my head like a B52's song

yuck

[billyjoeallen]

If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.

That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.

You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.

TERA is trader, and when trader says to not trade that means stay in fiat in bearish markets, btc in bullish markets.

I remember telling a friend of mine in 2011 when BTC was $3: "" I don't know if it'll go up or down, but I guarantee you'll only be 1/3 the idiot I was when I bought @ $9.

I guess I'm resigned to loose some money.  More tuition.  Every surprise can't be to the down side.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[p0peji]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

Why do you think they will liquidate?

[jonoiv]

no volume no interest.  I think any pump will just be met by a whale dump.

By next weekend things will be clearer.  

[fonzie]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

Why do you think they will liquidate?

Cause the ones that have open short position will have to close them it if we should go near 500$, or they would get squeezed because their required margin would probably no longer suffice. I assume most of them the open shorts were made around or below 500$.
We saw that the last time when we had the large candle to 710$,during that time the market was also heavily shorted, i don´t have the exact numbers. But 11,197 BTC liquidated(or say 60% of it) in combination with such a small ask side, would sent the price easily 100-150$. up.
Of course the price can likely crash afterwards again.
If one whale buys now 3000BTC with an market order, al lot of stop loss would get triggered and so he could resell those 3000 for much higher price.

[p0peji]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

Why do you think they will liquidate?

Cause the ones that have open short position will have to close them it if we should go near 500$, or they would get squeezed because their required margin would probably no longer suffice. I assume most of them the open shorts were made around or below 500$.
We saw that the last time when we had the large candle to 710$,during that time the market was also heavily shorted, i don´t have the exact numbers. But 11,197 BTC liquidated(or say 60% of it) in combination with such a small ask side, would sent the price easily 100-150$. up.
Of course the price can likely crash afterwards again.
If one whale buys now 3000BTC with an market order, al lot of stop loss would get triggered and so he could resell those 3000 for much higher price.

But first the price has to get to 500$ though.

[jonoiv]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

Why do you think they will liquidate?

Cause the ones that have open short position will have to close them it if we should go near 500$, or they would get squeezed because their required margin would probably no longer suffice. I assume most of them the open shorts were made around or below 500$.
We saw that the last time when we had the large candle to 710$,during that time the market was also heavily shorted, i don´t have the exact numbers. But 11,197 BTC liquidated(or say 60% of it) in combination with such a small ask side, would sent the price easily 100-150$. up.
Of course the price can likely crash afterwards again.
If one whale buys now 3000BTC with an market order, al lot of stop loss would get triggered and so he could resell those 3000 for much higher price.

But first the price has to get to 500$ though.

+1,  I can't see us getting to $500 anytime soon.  

EDIT:   can't see us hitting $450 anytime soon.

[rudius]

How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?

Why do you think they will liquidate?

Cause the ones that have open short position will have to close them it if we should go near 500$, or they would get squeezed because their required margin would probably no longer suffice. I assume most of them the open shorts were made around or below 500$.
We saw that the last time when we had the large candle to 710$,during that time the market was also heavily shorted, i don´t have the exact numbers. But 11,197 BTC liquidated(or say 60% of it) in combination with such a small ask side, would sent the price easily 100-150$. up.
Of course the price can likely crash afterwards again.
If one whale buys now 3000BTC with an market order, al lot of stop loss would get triggered and so he could resell those 3000 for much higher price.

a nice squeeze, that would be wonderful. Shouldn t be always the same laughing.