Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

Also in the April 2014 crash bitcoin lost 75% without any fundamental reason for the crash. We're not at 75% yet and we have been plastered with negative reports on mainstream media.  The only bitcoin stories I have seen recently on mainstream TV in the UK have been about gox and the crash.  That sticks in peoples minds.

2013?

The fundamental reason was that it was simply too high.

Well, mt.gox helped crash it by lagging out

Maybe it would go higher if it wasn't for that, maybe not... Maybe go fuck yourself

Unreasonably insulting.   He made a reasonable comment and you are simply not worthy of cleaning this guy's shoes.

I hope you take your own advice.

[1714675840]

1714675840

[1714675840]

1714675840

[1714675840]

1714675840

[1714675840]

1714675840

[1714675840]

1714675840

[1714675840]

1714675840

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Looks very promising I am proud of bitcoin that it is keeping strong position.
Good.
Waiting for next price changes.

[edwardspitz]

Is it just me or has everything just gone VERY quiet on all exchanges?!

Expect action in a few days

(HINT: it's upwards )

Yes I also expect some action over the coming days :-) But I found the lack of action a bit eerie. I was looking around and I could not spot a single transaction taking place (verifying it with volume). Even Houbi where the bots normally keep themselves busy was totally quiet for 10 minutes. I haven't seen that before. Could it be that there was something wrong on BitcoinWisdom?

Edit: Spelling

[elg]

where is the "meta" thread??

[dreamspark]

Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD

[NewLiberty]

Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD

China is accumulating, while bitstamp is still selling.
The China news is already baked in to the price so unless they start executing people for having bitcoins, the only FUD you are going to see is rehashing old news.

[jonoiv]

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team.  They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills... ...   ... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC.  Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... .   He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself"  as a miner that's not really possible,  The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2.  We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level.   Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote,  you have selective vision.  I wrote..  "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away.  I said it will take time.  That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not.  I could provide proof, but it won't change anything,  your response will still be the same.  (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling
 

[billyjoeallen]

Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD

I agree a retest of the lows is very possible, but we are approaching a cross on the 4HR moving average chart, and I didn't want to miss the possibility of a pop.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 13

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2609 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 417 USD.


Plot legend

The data point of Apr/12 UTC was a good one (S = 0.0029, W = 0.846), and right on top (ahem!) of the previous trend.  Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that trend will hold for one more day. Weighted least squares fitting to the points of Apr/07, 08, 09, 11, and 12 (assuming that Apr/10 was an outlier) give A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2796.66, B = -31.24.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.25 CNY/USD. It was 6.24, 6.32, 6.16 at the last three Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-11, 22:50 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Ahem!

Huobi's predicted price: 2634 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2643 CNY
Error:   9 CNY (~1.44 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 422 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 423 USD
Error: 1 USD
 
NOTE: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale
    returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." -- Mark Twain

[JorgeStolfi]

[ This is a test post to understand how "delete" works, for a discussion on the "meta" thread. Sorry for the noise, please ignore ]

where is the "meta" thread??

Here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=24.0

EDIT: actually I shoudl have written "sub-forum" not "thread".

[aminorex]

Back down to super low volume. Are we thinking consolidation and up or are we just waiting for the next bit of news.

450 used to be the norm. Before that it was 620, and before that it was 800.
If 425 becomes the new normal flat line on low volume, which is lower than the previous one, it just means that at last dip, once more and again, more fiat got out than new fiat came in.

Apathy sucks. Let's hope that volume picks up on Monday.

Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.

That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)

the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

[dreamspark]

Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD

China is accumulating, while bitstamp is still selling.
The China news is already baked in to the price so unless they start executing people for having bitcoins, the only FUD you are going to see is rehashing old news.

I agree it is baked into the price to some degree but that doesn't mean that the exchanges actually having no way of being deposited to will have no effect. It will. Furthermore since when did it matter if news was old or rehashed, its pretty much whats been happening since december 

[fonzie]

"Bitfinex Sentiment Index

Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.

BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "

haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin  

[jonoiv]

"Bitfinex Sentiment Index

Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.

BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "

haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin  

You should give the link

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

[billyjoeallen]

I'm seeing some significant changes in the order books.  Looking very bullish. Still wary of crazy dumps out of the blue. Damn China.

[aminorex]

Huobi and stamp are coverging.  But china wakes up soon and may assume leadership again.

[Walsoraj]

Next crash will be triggered by news of the arrests of chinese exchange CEOs for repeatedly evading regulations.

[jonoiv]

"Bitfinex Sentiment Index

Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.

BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "

haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin  

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

2 Hour MACD just crossed.  

China wakes in a few short hours.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team.  They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.

I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team

Luckily he did not claim so

Maybe I have to improve my reading skills... ...   ... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC.  Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... .   He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms..

"he overextended himself"  as a miner that's not really possible,  The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2.  We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level.   Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)

Again you need to read. what I wrote,  you have selective vision.  I wrote..  "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".

I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away.  I said it will take time.  That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).

I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not.  I could provide proof, but it won't change anything,  your response will still be the same.  (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.

Edit: spelling
 

NO you do NOT have to prove yourself... I agree. 

I have seen quite a few posts from you that have seemed to be angled towards spinning some jaded perspectives that are exaggerating facts in one direction or another... so for the time being, I will hold any further negative conclusions in reserve.. .. and see how it plays out... 

I am NOT attempting to read matters selectively, but i likely have NOT read all of your posts..  but that does NOT make my reading selective or purposefully selective in an conscious attempt to look at the world from a tinted glasses perspective.

In essence, I am NOT bothered by perspectives that are negative towards bitcoin, but i am usually bothered by inaccurate depictions when it seems to me that the poster knows better... if you do NOT know better, then you get more leeway, in my thinking.... ..