Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

The bear case is sustained by FUD, but it is not comprised of FUD. The bear case is that there are significant holders of large amounts of BTC with the ability to crash the market should any one of a number of things happen. They think the probability of at least one of these things happening is greater than the probability that hidden capital is going to launch a rally.

Bears also simply think that the flow of capital into BTC is going to be less than the flow out for a given amount of time. Miners would be buying their asses of right now if they had the capital to do so, because they know the price is substantially below the cost of production. So why aren't they? Coinbase price is only $2 higher than Bitstamp.

 
That's a very fair correction to my unbalanced case, and I endorse it.  However, I would also observe that the likelihood of any of those specific price-adverse events occurring is also predicated on FUD controlling the mind of the seller.  Yet again, a house build on FUD.  As I mentioned, a very real and important factor.

[billyjoeallen]

Whoever is operating the Death Bot is paying a lot of money to buy high and sell low. Why? One possible reason is to test market price and order resiliency. This person likely has a massive amount of cash and coins to control and the Death Bot is merely an operating expense.

This is very different than Willy. It's shown up on multiple exchanges, so it's probably not an exchange operator. That's a good sign, but it means the market is getting more sophisticated. Smart people are taking money from dumb people and I'm getting the sinking feeling that I'm one of the dumb people.

I don't have enough information to trade, so I'm not going to.

[aminorex]

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Do you seriously think someone is going to spend $20k on ASIC hardware, and balk at adding a breaker panel?

Perhaps amateur mining will cease to grow (although it will always exist).  The wiring issues are the least of the problems for large miners.

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.  That's not a problem in itself, but it creates a huge vulnerability.  And there's no way to fix it without pissing off the miners -- other than creating new miners.  And that's what responsibly self-interested large holders should seek to do:  Facilitate the creation of new, no-fee, merge-mining pools.  Like Elgius without LukeJr and with mergemining payouts.  P2Pool is a nice idea, but a trainwreck as software.

[JayJuanGee]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?

NO it does NOT. 

I did NOT know that interesting "fact." 

Can you explain when and how and why?  And, what are your sources for your information - b/c I have NOT seen any news about this happening.

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Yes, it is already known that mining is becoming more power intense and seems to be moving towards the bigger operations and likely towards the more wealthy performing the mining.  That is a known progression that some people (including miners) do NOT like, but that "fact" does NOT signify that mining will collapse any time soon - and if this is foreseen to be a longer-term problem, then likely actions are going to take place to address the matter so that this issue does NOT cause a collapse of bitcoin.  So, in essence, your post is full of disinformation by misstating facts and then exaggerating the significance of any facts that are contained therein.

[Guinpen]

500+ buy wall on Stamp. Reversal?

EDIT: pulled

[pjviitas]

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Do you seriously think someone is going to spend $20k on ASIC hardware, and balk at adding a breaker panel?

Perhaps amateur mining will cease to grow (although it will always exist).  The wiring issues are the least of the problems for large miners.

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.

Centralization will be the beginning of the gentrification of Bitcoin.  Once it is centralized it can be controlled by banks and governments.

[aminorex]

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.

Centralization will be the beginning of the gentrification of Bitcoin.  Once it is centralized it can be controlled by banks and governments.

Agreed.  But its a solvable problem.

[magicmexican]

Whoever is operating the Death Bot is paying a lot of money to buy high and sell low. Why? One possible reason is to test market price and order resiliency. This person likely has a massive amount of cash and coins to control and the Death Bot is merely an operating expense.

This is very different than Willy. It's shown up on multiple exchanges, so it's probably not an exchange operator. That's a good sign, but it means the market is getting more sophisticated. Smart people are taking money from dumb people and I'm getting the sinking feeling that I'm one of the dumb people.

I don't have enough information to trade, so I'm not going to.

What methods did you use to identify him?

[pjviitas]

A TH/s miner pretty well uses up an entire 15A circuit breaker in your home.

How many spare 15A breakers do you think there are in a home with a 100A service?

Do you seriously think someone is going to spend $20k on ASIC hardware, and balk at adding a breaker panel?

Perhaps amateur mining will cease to grow (although it will always exist).  The wiring issues are the least of the problems for large miners.

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.  That's not a problem in itself, but it creates a huge vulnerability.  And there's no way to fix it without pissing off the miners -- other than creating new miners.  And that's what responsibly self-interested large holders should seek to do:  Facilitate the creation of new, no-fee, merge-mining pools.  P2Pool is a nice idea, but a trainwreck as software.

BTW...have you checked out the cost of an electrician to do this kind of work lately?

[roslinpl]

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.

Centralization will be the beginning of the gentrification of Bitcoin.  Once it is centralized it can be controlled by banks and governments.

Agreed.  But its a solvable problem.

Indeed! That is why I want gov to keep their hands off our crypto world

[fonzie]

Le pump incoming?

[pjviitas]

The only real problem I see with mining is centralization.

Centralization will be the beginning of the gentrification of Bitcoin.  Once it is centralized it can be controlled by banks and governments.

Agreed.  But its a solvable problem.

Please elaborate.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

Le pump incoming?

Fearing le dump fonz?

[zakalwe]

Ding ding ding last days low priiiiiiiiiice......last offer to buy cheaaaaaaaap!

[aminorex]

BTW...have you checked out the cost of an electrician to do this kind of work lately?

Locally I had it done for just under 1k, conversion to a tandem panel.  In my country home -- not my city home.  (That would have been insane.  ConEd is not cheap, and the unions are in deep with organized crime and the political system in NYC so labor is utterly whack and the rules are byzantine.)

[Hypnoise]

Le pump incoming?

dead-cat bounce: il n'a pas le jus pour rester.

[JayJuanGee]

Whoever is operating the Death Bot is paying a lot of money to buy high and sell low. Why? One possible reason is to test market price and order resiliency. This person likely has a massive amount of cash and coins to control and the Death Bot is merely an operating expense.

This is very different than Willy. It's shown up on multiple exchanges, so it's probably not an exchange operator. That's a good sign, but it means the market is getting more sophisticated. Smart people are taking money from dumb people and I'm getting the sinking feeling that I'm one of the dumb people.

I don't have enough information to trade, so I'm not going to.

Personally, I do NOT think that this is a matter of being smart or dumb.  When someone is using their capital to manipulate, you cannot predict that when they do it in unpredictable ways.  Surely it is easier to predict if there a bunch of them and they may be having more trouble to coordinate. 

You are NOT the first one to point out that sometimes these bots or whales are purposefully running at a loss, but they can only sustain it for so long - but generally, they can sustain it much longer than the tolerance of a bunch of us regular people put together.

[ChrisML]

Cant wait for tommorow. EPIC.

[roslinpl]

Ding ding ding last days low priiiiiiiiiice......last offer to buy cheaaaaaaaap!

I agree 100%

Be prepared!